The Dynamics of Liquidity in Commercial Property Markets: Revisiting Supply and Demand Indexes in Real Estate

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - A common definition of liquidity in real estate investment is the ability to sell property assets quickly at full value, as reflected by...     

Tests of ex ante versus ex post theories of collateral using private and public information

Collateral is a widely used, but not well understood, debt contracting feature. Two broad strands of theoretical literature explain collateral as arising from the existence of either ex ante private information or ex post incentive problems between borrowers and lenders. However, the extant empirical literature has been unable to isolate each of these effects. This paper attempts to do so using a credit registry that is unique in that it allows the researcher to have access to some private information about borrower risk that is unobserved by the lender. The data also include public information about borrower risk, loan contract terms, and ex post performance for both secured and unsecured loans. The results suggest that the ex post theories of collateral are empirically dominant, although the ex ante theories are also valid for customers with short borrower–lender relations that are relatively unknown to the lender.     

Market Sentiments,Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions

This paper empirically tests auction theory by examining how the stock market evaluates the outcome of open-bid English auctions of rights to develop residential real estate projects in Hong Kong. To do so, we deconstruct the complexity surrounding actual auction events, and empirically isolate the influence of conflicting auction theory predictions using data from expert opinion around auction events, actual auction event and outcome data, and stock market data. The empirical findings include (1) with increasing uncertainty bidders reduce bids, thus confirming predictions following the winner’s curse thesis; (2) joint bidding does not lead to increased bids based on pooled (“better”) information, but instead leads to reduced competition; while increased competition leads to increased prices at auction, as expected; (3) the market interprets auction outcomes as information events which function to signal developers’ expectations about future market prospects; but if the winning bid is considered too high, this interpretation is revised to that of the winner’s curse; (4) with joint bidding and winning, the market’s response to joint winners is better explained by concern for winner’s curse (despite supposed better informed bids) than the acquisition of a below cost development project following reduced competition at auction; and (5) the market interprets increased competition at auction as indicator of the future direction of property price movements in the secondary market—the more intense the competition, the more positive the future prospect of the property market are seen to be.     

Can Warren Buffett forecast equity market corrections?

Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market when this ratio deviates above 120% or below 80%. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market corrections and rallies. We find that Buffett's decision rule does not deliver satisfactory forecasts. However, when we adopt a time-varying decision rule, the ratio becomes a statistically significant predictor of equity market corrections. The two time-varying decision rules are: (i) predict an equity market correction when the ratio exceeds a 95% one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution, and (ii) predict an equity market correction when the ratio exceeds a threshold computed using Cantelli's inequality. These new decision rules are robust to changes in the two key parameters: the confidence level and the forecasting horizon. This paper also shows that the MV/GNP ratio performs relatively well against the four most popular equity market correction models, but the ratio is not a particularly useful predictor of equity market rallies.     

Life Expectancy in 2040: What Do Clinical Experts Expect?

We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes of death in the United States. Mortality rates and life tables for 2040 were derived by sex and age. Life expectancy at age 20 and 65 was compared to figures published by the Social Security Administration and to estimates from the Lee-Carter method. There was agreement among all three approaches that life expectancy at age 20 will increase by approximately one year per decade for females and males between now and 2040. According to the clinical experts, 70% of the improvement in life expectancy will occur in cardiovascular disease and cancer, while in the last 30 years most of the improvement has occurred in cardiovascular disease. Expert opinion suggests that most of the increase in life expectancy will be attributable to the already achieved reduction in smoking rates, especially for women.     

Effects of frequent information disclosure: the case of daily net asset value reporting for closed-end investment companies

There are two competing hypotheses regarding the effects of increased financial disclosure. One states that increased disclosure leads to decreased information asymmetry and more efficient pricing resulting in reduced bid-ask spreads, volatility and illiquidity. The other says that increased disclosure places additional burdens on traders leading to increased transactions costs and volatility. This paper examines the effects of more-frequent reporting for the case of closed-end funds that voluntarily changed their net-asset-value reporting from weekly to daily beginning in 1998. Multivariate analyses indicate a decrease in asymmetric information following initiation of daily reporting as evidenced by lower spreads, greater transactions volume, reduced volatility and decreased illiquidity. We conclude that closed-end fund daily net-asset-value reporting provides an example of information disclosure that provides useful information to investors and reduces information asymmetry.     

A regional diffusion theory explanation for states’ proposal and adoption of anti-passive investment company laws

We investigate the propensity of states to propose and adopt laws prohibiting the deduction of intercompany interest or royalties in response to the passive investment company tax minimization strategy (anti-PIC statutes). Using event history analysis with panel data from 1991–2005, we investigate whether regional diffusion theory explains the proposal and adoption of anti-PIC statutes. Our results provide support for the regional diffusion theory explanation, in that both proposing and adopting states have a higher proportion of adopting states in their particular Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) region. We find no relationship between decreases in states’ real corporate income tax revenues and their adoption of anti-PIC statutes, but do find that proposals are more common in states with slower growth in real personal income. This study contributes to existing state and local tax policy research by demonstrating that certain types of policy decisions may arise from reasons closely linked to herding behavior.     

Funded pensions and intergenerational and international risk sharing in general equilibrium

We explore intergenerational and international risk sharing in a general equilibrium multiple-country model with two-tier pensions systems. The exact design of the pension system is key for the way in which risks are shared over generations. The laissez-faire market solution fails to provide an optimal allocation because the young cannot share in the financial risks. However, the existence of wage-indexed bonds combined with a pension system with a fully funded second tier that pays defined wage-indexed benefits can reproduce the first best. If wage-indexed bonds are not available, mimicking the first best is not possible, except under special circumstances. We also explore whether national pension funds want to deviate from the first best by increasing domestic equity holdings. With wage-indexed bonds this incentive is absent, while there is indeed such an incentive when wage-indexed bonds do not exist.     

Foreclosure Delay and Consumer Credit Performance

The deep housing market recession from 2008 through 2010 was characterized by a steep rise in number of foreclosures. The average length of time from onset of delinquency through the end of the foreclosure process also expanded dramatically. Although most individuals undergoing foreclosure were experiencing serious financial stress, the extended foreclosure timelines enabled them to live in their homes without making mortgage payments until the end of the foreclosure process, thus providing temporary income and liquidity benefits from lower housing costs. This paper investigates the impact of extended foreclosure timelines on borrower performance with credit card debt. Our results indicate that a longer period of nonpayment of mortgage expenses results in higher cure rates on delinquent credit cards and reduced credit card balances. Thus, foreclosure process delays may have mitigated the impact of the economic downturn on credit card default—suggesting that improvement in credit card performance during the post-crisis period would likely be slowed by the removal of the temporary liquidity benefits as foreclosures reach completion.     

The Information Content of NAV Estimates

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper investigates whether analysts’ estimates of firm fundamental value transmit unique information to security markets. Previous work...