Collapse of the purchasing power parity in the light of co-integrated variables?

Zusammenfassung Kollaps der Kaufkraftparit?tentheorie im Lichte ko-integrierter Variabler? - Dieser Aufsatz nimmt das Kaufkraftparit?tentheorem wieder auf und untersucht, (i) ob Wechselkurse (im Verh?ltnis zur Basisperiode) und die entsprechenden Preisdifferentiale ko-integriert sind und (ii) ob (au▾erdem) die Differenz zwischen den beiden Variablen station?r ist. Es wird argumentiert, da▾ die Gesamtkosten pro reale Produktionseinheit, die dem Deflator der Gesamtproduktion entsprechen, am besten geeignet sind, um die relative Wettbewerbsf?higkeit der Volkswirtschaft zu messen. Besonderer Wert wird auf den Wechselkurs der D-Mark gegenüber den anderen EWS-W?hrungen gelegt. Es wird statistisch nachgewiesen, da▾ der Logarithmus des Wechselkurses mit dem Logarithmus des entsprechenden Preisdifferentials ko-integriert ist und da▾ sich - mit einem h?heren Grad an Unsicherheit - die relative Kaufkraftparit?t bew?hrt.

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Résumé Collapsus de la parité de pouvoir d’achat en lumière des variables cointegrées? - Cet article s’occupe encore une fois de la parité de pouvoir d’achat (PPA) en analysant (i) si des taux de change (en relation à une période de base) et les différences de prix correspondantes sont co-intégrés et (ii) si (de plus) la différence des deux variables est stationnaire. L’auteur argue que les co?ts totaux par unité de la production totale qui sont identiques au déflateur de production totale sont très propres à mesurer la capacité concurrentielle relative d’une économie entière. L’attention particulière est prêtée au taux de change de la Deutschmark vis-à-vis les autres monnaies SME. Statistiquement, il est trouvé que le log du taux de change et le log de la différence de prix correspondante sont co-intégrés et que, avec un degré plus haut d’incertitude, la PPA relative est affirmée.

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Resumen ?Se derrumba la paridad del poder de compra a la luz de variables cointegradas? - Este trabajo reexamina el teorema de la paridad del poder de compra (PPP) investigando (a) si las tasas de cambio y las diferencias de precios correspondientes son cointegradas y (b) si la diferencia entre las dos variables es estacionaria. Se arguye que el costo total por unidad de producto real, igual al deflactor del producto total, se presta para medir la competitividad de la economía en su conjunto. Se enfatiza particularmente la tasa de cambio del Marco Alemán frente a otras monedas del sistema monetario europeo. Se encuentra evidencia estadística en favor de una cointegración del logaritmo de la tasa de cambio y del logaritmo de la diferencia de precios correspondiente; el teorema del PPP relativo resulta válido, mas a un nivel de incertidumbre más alto.

     

The Yugoslav inflation: Some competing hypotheses

Various hypotheses about wage and price inflation in Yugoslavia are presented and tested empirically with quarterly data from the 1962–1972 period. Both theoretical literature and empirical evidence on the behavior of the self-managed firm are used to derive different models of wage determination. The wage-equation results indicate that labor-market conditions, inflationary expectations; and labor-productivity variables are significant determinants of the rate of growth of wages. The price equations, based on a modified cost-markup model consistent with the practices of Yugoslav firms, identify labor costs and aggregate demand as significant determinants of the rate of growth of prices. University of California, Berkeley.     

Institutional disparities in the pricing of adjustable rate mortgage loans

In recent years, commercial banks and savings and loan associations in South Florida have consistently offered initial adjustment period teasers, or subsidies, on their adjustable rate mortgage loans (ARMs). This study adopts the size of the initial subsidy as a proxy for a lender's willingness to offer ARM loans and develops an econometric model which relates the size of the teaser to a series of internal variables (other lending parameters), and external variables (financial market conditions).The results suggest that subsidization policies are not identical across institutions. Specifically, savings and loan associations seem to be less willing than commercial banks to accept the interest rate exposure inherent in ARM lending when future loan rates are constrained by adjustment limits. Consequently, the study argues that the character of a lender's existing assets influences its reactions to the risk/return properties of new assets.This paper has benefitted greatly from the comments of the Journal's reviewers. Responsibility for remaining errors rests with the author.     

Innovation and Productivity in European Industries

The labour productivity impact of innovation is investigated in this paper combining neo-Schumpeterian insights on the variety of innovation with the importance of industrial structures and firm size; two models are proposed for explaining productivity and export success in European manufacturing industries and firm-size classes. The empirical estimates are based on data from the European innovation survey (CIS 2), covering Austria, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK, broken down by 22 sectors and for large, medium, and small firms. The econometric results, obtained adopting cross-sectional estimation methodologies able to account for unobserved industrial characteristics, show that productivity in Europe relies on product and process innovation, with the support of the efficiency gains provided by grouped business structures. Conversely, in Italy the introduction of new machinery linked to innovation appears as the key mechanism supporting domestic productivity. When export success is considered, all countries have to rely on an innovation-based model of competitiveness.     

The Effects of Employment Insecurity on Demand,Productivity and Employment Levels

This paper investigates the effects of labour market deregulation on demand, productivity and employment levels in the short term. The focus will be on deregulation of labour contracts, i.e. on the transition from a legal system that guarantees permanent employment to a system of formal rules allowing for job insecurity. The idea is that the greater the deregulation of labour contracts, the higher the productivity and the lower the demand and employment levels.     

Community-based tourism and networking: Viscri,Romania

This paper raises questions concerning the complexity of the term “community” when dealing with community-based tourism initiatives. It highlights the difficulty of translating into practice the paradigm of “community-based tourism”. Through a case study of tourism in the multi-ethnic village of Viscri, Romania, the paper discusses the operational role that a network of both internal and external actors may play in piloting tourism initiatives that produce benefits for communities that are unaccustomed to participatory development processes due to various barriers. The study highlights the key role played by a local leader and an external foundation in building a network that, thanks to the bonding and bridging relations activated, led the community towards a form of sustainable tourism development and a broader amelioration of the social conditions. The network described can be replicated in other geographical contexts, provided there is strong local leadership and also international interests and donors. In the long term, however, the network needs to be strengthened by involving other actors, above all local authorities. They are needed to assure the basis for long-term empowerment, participation in decision-making and progressive diversification of economic activities.     

Beyond “Does it Pay to be Green?” A Meta-Analysis of Moderators of the CEP–CFP Relationship

Review of extant research on the corporate environmental performance (CEP) and corporate financial performance (CFP) link generally demonstrates a positive relationship. However, some arguments and empirical results have demonstrated otherwise. As a result, researchers have called for a contingency approach to this research stream, which moves beyond the basic question “does it pay to be green?” and instead asks “when does it pay to be green?” In answering this call, we provide a meta-analytic review of CEP–CFP literature in which we identify potential moderators to the CEP–CFP relationship including environmental performance type (e.g., reactive vs. proactive performance), firm characteristics (e.g., large vs. small firms), and methodological issues (e.g., self-report measures). By analyzing these contingencies, this study attempts to provide a basis on which to draw conclusions regarding some inconsistencies and debates in the CEP–CFP research. Some of the results of the moderator analysis suggest that small firms benefit from environmental performance as much or more than large firms, US firms seem to benefit more than international counterparts, and environmental performance seems to have the strongest influence on market-measures of financial performance.     

University specialization and new firm creation across industries

This article examines how the scientific specialization of universities impacts new firm creation across industries at the local level. In accordance with the Pavitt-Miozzo-Soete taxonomy, we consider eight industry categories, which reflect the characteristics of firms’ innovation patterns and, ultimately, the knowledge inputs that firms require. Using data on new firm creation in Italian provinces (i.e., at the NUTS3 level), we estimate negative binomial regression models separately for each industry category to relate new firm creation to the scientific specialization in basic sciences, applied sciences and engineering, and social sciences and humanities of neighboring universities. We find that universities specialized in applied sciences and engineering have a broad positive effect on new firm creation in a given province, this effect being especially strong in service industries. Conversely, the positive effect of university specialization in basic sciences is confined to new firm creation in science-based manufacturing industries, even if this effect is of large magnitude. Universities specialized in social sciences and humanities have no effect on new firm creation at the local level whatever industry category is considered.     

Democracy and risk-based decision-making: the next step in public involvement

Risk assessment has struggled to reconcile public views and opinion with the results of science-based objective assessment. In this paper, we attempt to tease apart subjective and objective considerations that risk management decisions entail. Through the use of examples from the New Zealand Environmental Risk Management Authority, we argue that risk managers need to use quantitative tools in order to develop an objective understanding of the biophysical outcomes of an activity. Decision-making should then enter a phase where democratic methods are used to allow people to weigh these physical outcomes subjectively. We believe allowing subjective democratic decisions, based on objective reality, will help enable risk management to bridge gaps between practitioners and the public.     

Portfolio choices and VaR constraint with a defaultable asset

We consider a Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model for the asset price of a defaultable asset showing the so-called leverage effect (high volatility when the asset price is low). We show that a VaR constraint re-evaluated over time induces an agent more risk averse than a logarithmic utility to take more risk than in the unconstrained setting.