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31.
Andreas Graefe J. Scott Armstrong Randall J. Jones Jr. Alfred G. Cuzán 《International Journal of Forecasting》2014
We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were more accurate than any individual component method, on average. The gains in accuracy from combining increased with the numbers of forecasts used, especially when these forecasts were based on different methods and different data, and in situations involving high levels of uncertainty. Such combining yielded error reductions of between 16% and 59%, compared to the average errors of the individual forecasts. This improvement is substantially greater than the 12% reduction in error that had been reported previously for combining forecasts. 相似文献
32.
Illustrating the Power of fsQCA in Explaining Paradoxical Consumer Environmental Orientations 下载免费PDF全文
Prior research on proenvironmental and prosocial behavior focuses primarily on explaining consistent rather than paradoxical tendencies. Even though this field receives wide attention from different scientific disciplines, findings for many causal factors of such proenvironmental orientation are contradictory. Nevertheless, knowing who those individuals are who think and behave in a pro‐/antienvironmental way or show a paradoxical behavior in this regard becomes useful for many different parties in human societies including public policy makers, governmental and nongovernmental environmental protection organizations, and for‐profit firms. Therefore, this study identifies those individuals who show neither consistent proenvironmental nor consistent antienvironmental tendencies as the “walkers‐only” and “talkers‐only” (i.e., for short, “walkers” and “talkers”). The former are defined as persons who put much effort into the recycling of waste materials but do not support pollution standards, whereas the latter term describes individuals who have a strong opinion with regard to the support of pollution standards yet do not engage in recycling efforts. The present study reports evidence of the existence of walkers and talkers. Further, this research is the first study to employ “fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis” to identify the complex antecedent conditions for some individuals’ paradoxical belief–behaviors in the field of socially and environmentally directed behaviors and orientations. The findings yield valuable insights both into the applicability and benefits of configural analysis and for public policy makers and managers in waste management and recycling industries. 相似文献
33.
While some organizations swear by the benefits of transparency and are eager to learn and implement transparency practices, many managers are still reluctant or even afraid to use them. Our research reveals that only a few innovative companies have taken steps to leverage a potentially useful form of transparency: the provision of accessible and objective information to customers (e.g., sharing unbiased benchmark data, publishing unfiltered customer comments, or providing candid product reviews that may praise but also criticize the company’s products). Our study also shows that many companies remain wary and view greater calls for transparency as a challenge to be managed rather than an opportunity to be traded upon. This is partly due to limited research into the performance benefits of giving customers access to objective information, and lack of practical guidelines on how to actually implement it. This article addresses these shortcomings. First, we investigate whether performance transparency leads to customer outcomes that can be profitable for an organization and, second, we analyze the characteristics of successful transparency initiatives in a wide range of industries. Our research shows that customers exhibit more trust and are willing to pay a premium to deal with transparent businesses. Also, it uncovers seven effective strategies to leverage transparency. This article provides convincing empirical evidence for the benefits of performance transparency and the ways in which management may implement it successfully. 相似文献
34.
Andreas Hoffmann 《The World Economy》2014,37(10):1367-1387
Since 2009, central banks in the major advanced economies have held interest rates at very low levels to stabilise financial markets and support the recovery of their economies. This paper outlines the unintended consequences of the prolonged period of very low world funding interest rates in emerging markets. The paper is informed by a Mises–Hayek‐BIS view on credit booms and Mises' law of unintended consequences. Consistent with the presented credit boom view, I provide evidence that the very low world funding interest rates are associated with a rise in volatile capital flows and asset market bubbles in fast‐growing emerging markets. In line with Mises' law, I further show that these unintended consequences give rise to a new wave of interventionism as policymakers in emerging markets increasingly reintroduce financially repressive measures to isolate the economies from foreign capital inflows. 相似文献
35.
This study discusses a model of success in venture capital (VC) fundraising. We develop this model based on agency and trust theory. The model is tested against quantitative data collected from 151 limited partners (LP) with headquarters predominantly in North America and Europe. Beyond the well-known criterion of the VC firm's track record, results suggest that trust and perceived controllability shape the investment decisions of those LPs. Moreover, antecedents of these main factors are evaluated. In sum, this study shows how fundraising VC firms can systematically manage the fundraising process. 相似文献
36.
Exporting firms do not only decide how much of their products they ship abroad but also at which frequency. Doing so, they face a trade-off between saving on fixed costs per shipments (by shipping large amounts infrequently) and saving on storage costs (by delivering just in time with small and frequent shipments). The firm's optimal choice defines a mapping from size and frequency of shipments to fixed costs per shipment. We use a unique dataset of Swiss cross-border trade on the transaction level to infer the size and shape of the underlying fixed costs. The inferred fixed costs are specific to each firm–country–product combination. Our results suggest that the fixed costs per shipment of the average Swiss exporter are large, ranging between 0.82% of the export value in our most conservative specification and 5.4%. We document that the imputed fixed costs per shipment correlate negatively with language commonalities, trade agreements and geographic proximity. 相似文献
37.
This paper addresses the optimal design of risk sharing arrangements in reinsurance contracts with asymmetric information concerning the primary insurer’s behavior. The latter usually has significant unobservable discretions, for instance with respect to risk selection, implying a moral hazard problem. We show that the existence of moral hazard strongly affects the characteristics of the reinsurance indemnification rule, i. e. the connection between the level of losses and the indemnity, which is specified in the contract. For this analysis, a standard model framework from the theory of optimal reinsurance with perfect information is modified by the assumption that the primary insurer has unobservable control of the probability distribution of the extent of losses. In particular, the solution indicates that for this situation, a Pareto-optimal indemnity rule is less steep, and therefore the primary insurer’s share in a marginal increase of the loss is greater, compared to the case of complete information. A deductible, however, turns out not to be a suitable approach in this context. 相似文献
38.
Olivier Bargain Herwig Immervoll Andreas Peichl Sebastian Siegloch 《International Tax and Public Finance》2012,19(1):118-138
The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate
which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack
of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008–2009,
using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative
matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects
of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive
margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on the income distribution compared to a
situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from
a fiscal point of view. In this context, we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under
which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries. 相似文献
39.
40.
The article first infers how consumer surplus in a market is linked to revenue under different assumptions about fare elasticity and when using different types of demand functions. This information is added to producer surplus in order to derive social surplus. The method, thus, produces a simple approach for authorities to assess social surplus in a market and its benefits to the users. A modified exponential demand function is applied to calculate consumer surplus and social surplus for 97 ferry services in Norway regulated by the state. The calculations are based on empirical data concerning ferry fare, revenue data at service level and reasonable assumptions about fare point elasticity for services covering different distances.In 2007, these services generated welfare for the users (consumer surplus) and the society (social surplus) amounting to about 5.8 billion NOK and 4.3 billion NOK, respectively. Consumer surplus and social surplus varied considerably amongst the services. Only 3 of the 97 services operate with positive profits and, hence, without subsidies. About 21 of the services contribute negatively to social surplus. Many of these unprofitable services are the only transport alternatives in rural areas and could be argued to continue operation according to politically decided regional measures. Implicitly, maintaining all these 21 services means that the welfare for the people in these areas is valued as up to four times greater than the welfare of the people in the rest of society. 相似文献