USING LOTTERIES TO FINANCE PUBLIC GOODS: THEORY AND EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE*

This study explores the economics of charitable fund‐raising. We begin by developing theory that examines the optimal lottery design while explicitly relaxing both risk‐neutrality and preference homogeneity assumptions. We test our theory using a battery of experimental treatments and find that our theoretical predictions are largely confirmed. Specifically, we find that single‐ and multiple‐prize lotteries dominate the voluntary contribution mechanism both in total dollars raised and the number of contributors attracted. Moreover, we find that the optimal fund‐raising mechanism depends critically on the risk postures of potential contributors and preference heterogeneity.     

Decentralized learning from failure

We study decentralized learning in organizations. Decentralization is captured through Crawford and Haller's [Learning how to cooperate: optimal play in repeated coordination games, Econometrica 58 (1990) 571-595] attainability constraints on strategies. We analyze a repeated game with imperfectly observable actions. A fixed subset of action profiles are successes and all others are failures. The location of successes is unknown. The game is played until either there is a success or the time horizon is reached. We partially characterize optimal attainable strategies in the infinite horizon game by showing that after any fixed time, agents will occasionally randomize while at the same time mixing probabilities cannot be uniformly bounded away from zero.     

Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. Empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by virtue of a comprehensive set of expectations data, we find that money illusion seems to be the driving force behind our results. Another popular hypothesis – inflation as a proxy for aggregate risk aversion – is not supported by thedata.     

Foreign Investment and National Interests in the Russian Oil and Gas Industry

This article examines the political economy of foreign direct investment in the Russian oil and gas industry in order to explain the limited role of foreign capital in this sector. There are three forms of foreign direct investment in the Russian oil and gas industry: (1) joint ventures, (2) investment within the framework of a production sharing agreement (PSA) and (3) foreign equity investment. The development of these three forms of foreign direct investment is analysed with special reference to the interests of the parties involved, before a conclusion on the political factors determining the conditions for foreign investment is made.     

Real and nominal UK interest rates,ERM membership,and inflation targeting

This article estimates a two-factor term structure model to analyze the time-varying mean-reverting levels of the UK real and nominal short-term interest rates. Before and during British membership in the ERM, the mean-reverting levels of real and nominal short rates have a strong negative correlation. Afterward, when the UK implemented an inflation targeting policy, the mean-reverting levels have a strong positive correlation. The article also reports empirical evidence of a link between the time-varying central tendencies and inflation in the disinflation period before the implementation of the inflation targeting policy.     

How can our cars become less polluting? An assessment of the environmental improvement potential of cars

This paper presents a systematic overview of the environmental impacts of new average diesel and petrol cars from a life cycle perspective. An analysis of different technical and non-technical improvement options that could be achieved at each stage of a car’s life cycle was performed. The consequences of the adoption of these options on the environment were estimated. The results show that some of the options analysed could have a major positive impact on the vehicle efficiency and induce large improvements of the environmental profile of passenger cars. The highest improvements are achievable through more efficient power trains (including hybrid car), and through lightweight cars. For some options, burden shifts from one car life cycle phase to another, or from one environmental problem to another, can occur. The results show that besides the purely technological options, those that imply behavioural changes by the driver may also reduce the environmental burden substantially.     

Declaraciones institucionales y percepciones individuales sobre la sustentabilidad en escuelas de negocios mexicanas

The objective of this paper is to analyze how business schools of Mexican universities deal with the concept of sustainability as part of their educational task. In order to achieve a comprehensive vision, this study considers the environmental, the social, and the economic components of sustainability. After discussing the conceptual dimensions of education for sustainability, the empirical part of the paper consists of two sections: a content analysis of how official university documents handle the concept of sustainability and a survey of professors’ and students’ perceptions of sustainability. The analysis shows that both professors and students in the Management and Accounting disciplines need to extend their understanding about the economic and environmental aspects of sustainability. The results of this study provide information that can guide the efforts made by institutions of higher learning for training their professors and offering a comprehensive education for their students in all three components of sustainability.     

Top management's social capital and learning in new product development and its interaction with external uncertainties

This paper examines the effect of the elements of top management's social capital on exploratory and exploitative learning and on the outcomes of new product development (NPD), as well as the interaction effects of these elements with external uncertainties. In so doing, the study follows prior research that calls for a fine-grained analysis of how top management's social capital can positively affect NPD outcomes. Large-scale survey data (675 firms) from the United States, Germany, and Australia are used to develop and empirically validate a theoretical framework. As hypothesized, elements of top management's social capital have positive, but not identical, effects on exploitative and exploratory learning. In addition, the effects of structural social capital on learning, as well as the effects of learning on NPD outcomes, are significantly moderated by the interplay of technology uncertainty and demand uncertainty. The research concludes with implications for theory and practice.     

Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?

Reflecting domestic demand pressures, the output gap has important implications for economic analysis. This paper assesses the usefulness of four commonly-used gap measures for a small set of European countries. The main results are that the policy implications can be very different depending on the gap measure and that, consequently, care should be exercised when employing any such measure. Moreover the paper investigates in a simple inflation forecasting framework the common assertion that the output gap could improve the forecasting accuracy. For annual observations, however, these measures rarely provide useful information and there is no single best measure across countries.     

Stationary equilibria in bargaining with externalities

This paper studies infinite-horizon bargaining between a seller and multiple buyers when externalities are present. We extend the analysis in Jehiel and Moldovanu by allowing for both pure and mixed equilibria [Jehiel, P., Moldovanu, B., 1995a. Cyclical delay in bargaining with externalities. Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 619–637]. A characterization of the stationary subgame perfect equilibria in generic games is presented. Equilibria with delay exist only for strong positive externalities. Since each buyer receives a positive payoff when the seller makes an agreement with some other buyer, positive externalities induce a war of attrition between buyers.