On the analysis of a multi-threshold Markovian risk model

We consider a class of Markovian risk models perturbed by a multiple threshold dividend strategy in which the insurer collects premiums at rate c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, i=1, 2, …,n+1 where n<∞. We derive the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) of the distribution of the time to ruin as well as the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin. By interpreting that the insurer, whose gross premium rate is c, pays dividends continuously at rate d _i =c?c _i whenever the surplus level resides in the i-th surplus layer, we also derive the expected discounted value of total dividend payments made prior to ruin. Our results are obtained via a recursive approach which makes use of an existing connection, linking an insurer's surplus process to an embedded fluid flow process.     

Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia

ABSTRACT

Stabilizing monetary policy in a small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In this paper, we investigate whether foreign exchange market interventions and the Central Bank’s credit rationing at the official rate (CROR) may soften this constraint and improve the results of monetary policy for different monetary regimes. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model appropriate for analyzing the forward-looking behavior of households facing non-zero probabilities of losing access to financial market and CROR. We have found significant credit rationing in the quarterly Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2. The probability of losing access to financial market and the probability of CROR are estimated as 22% and 66%, respectively. Using Russian data of 2001:Q1–2014:Q2 we demonstrate that CROR provoked forward-looking activity in financial market, which led to more Ruble devaluation in the crises of 2008–2009. It improved poor countercyclical performance of two Russian monetary policy rules, whereas made small effect on welfare. Welfare maximization exercises reveal a tradeoff between low-inflation and high-welfare solutions and favor of a floating exchange rate regime. We found the optimal value of the probability of CROR in both exchange rate-based and Taylor rule-based models but resulting improvement in welfare is very small.     

Determinants of Internationalization Strategies of Emerging Market Firms: A Multilevel Approach

Recently, debates about uniqueness of emerging market firms’ (EMFs) internationalization strategies were a focus of research. Yet, findings regarding their determinants are mixed, and conclusions on how EMFs’ internationalization strategies can be theoretically explained vary greatly. This article elaborates on the underlying reasons for these inconclusive results and addresses them by the development of a multilevel theoretical framework allowing for a better understanding of integrative influence of institutional, sector, and firm-specific determinants of EMFs’ internationalization strategies. This framework is validated by evidence from Russia, and a multiple case study approach is adopted to investigate the determinants of internationalization strategies of Russian firms.     

Why does democracy need education?

Across countries, education and democracy are highly correlated. We motivate empirically and then model a causal mechanism explaining this correlation. In our model, schooling teaches people to interact with others and raises the benefits of civic participation, including voting and organizing. In the battle between democracy and dictatorship, democracy has a wide potential base of support but offers weak incentives to its defenders. Dictatorship provides stronger incentives to a narrower base. As education raises the benefits of civic engagement, it raises participation in support of a broad-based regime (democracy) relative to that in support of a narrow-based regime (dictatorship). This increases the likelihood of successful democratic revolutions against dictatorships, and reduces that of successful anti-democratic coups.     

Models of Multi-Category Choice Behavior

Given the advent of basket-level purchasing data of households, choice modelers are actively engaged in the development of statistical and econometric models of multi-category choice behavior of households. This paper reviews current developments in this area of research, discussing the modeling methodologies that have been used, the empirical findings that have emerged so far, and directions for future research. We also motivate the use of Bayesian methods to overcome the computational challenges involved in estimation.     

Behavioral Biases and Investment

We investigate the way investors react to prior gains/losses. We directly examine investor reactions to different definitions of gains and losses (i.e., overall wealth, paper gains and losses, and realized capital gains and losses) and investigate how gains and losses in one category of wealth (e.g., real estate) affect holdings in other categories (e.g., financial assets). We show that investors change their holdings of risky assets as a function of both financial and real estate gains. Prior gains increase risk-taking, while prior losses reduce it. To interpret our results, we consider and compare three alternative hypotheses of investor behavior: prospect theory, house money effect and standard utility theory with decreasing risk aversion. Our evidence fails to support loss aversion, pointing in the direction of the house money effect or standard utility theory. Investors consider wealth in its entirety, and risk-taking in financial markets is affected by gains/losses in overall wealth, financial wealth, and real estate wealth. We appreciate the helpful comments of: O. Bondarenko, F. De Jong, B. Dumas, H. Hau, P. Hillion, R. Jaganathan, M. Lettau, P.Maenhout, M. Huang, S. Mullanaithen, T. Odean, J. Peress, R. Shiller, P. Sodini, M. Suominen, A. Subrahmanyan, B. Swaminathan, R. Thaler, L. Tepla, P. Veronesi, M. Weber and the participants of the Summer Financial Markets Symposium at Gerzensee and the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting, Fall 2002. We are grateful to Sven-Ivan Sundqvist for numerous helpful discussions and for providing us with the data. Financial support from Inquiry Europe is acknowledged. Andrei Simonov also acknowledges financial support from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation. Any remaining errors are our own.     

Two-Sided Platforms: Product Variety and Pricing Structures

This paper provides a new modeling framework to analyze two-sided platforms connecting producers and consumers. In contrast to the existing literature, indirect network effects are determined endogenously, through consumers' taste for variety and producer competition. Three new aspects of platform pricing structures are derived.   First, the optimal platform pricing structure shifts towards extracting more rents from producers relative to consumers when consumers have stronger demand for variety, since producers become less substitutable. With platform competition, consumer preferences for variety, producer market power, and producer economies of scale in multihoming also make platforms' price-cutting strategies on the consumer side less effective. This second effect on equilibrium pricing structures goes in the opposite direction relative to the first one.   Third, variable fees charged to producers can serve to trade off producer innovation incentives against the need to reduce a platform holdup problem.     

A Survey of Corporate Governance

This article surveys research on corporate governance, with special attention to the importance of legal protection of investors and of ownership concentration in corporate governance systems around the world.