ECONOMETRICS MEETS SENTIMENT: AN OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS

The advent of massive amounts of textual, audio, and visual data has spurred the development of econometric methodology to transform qualitative sentiment data into quantitative sentiment variables, and to use those variables in an econometric analysis of the relationships between sentiment and other variables. We survey this emerging research field and refer to it as sentometrics, which is a portmanteau of sentiment and econometrics. We provide a synthesis of the relevant methodological approaches, illustrate with empirical results, and discuss useful software.     

Risk Judgments in Climbers: The Role of Difficulty,Meteorological Conditions,Confidence and Appropriate Tools

Risk perception among climbers is a factor that can contribute to injury prevention. The purpose of this study was to analyze how expert climbers make judgments about potential risks to their safety. Specifically, we studied how climbers combine the available information on environmental conditions and personal resources in order to arrive at risk judgments. Sixteen distinct scenarios were presented to 134 climbers, and their risk perception related to each situation was recorded. Findings revealed that all variables were highly relevant for determining risk perception. When all variables were present at the same time, confidence was found to minimize the perception of risks caused by environmental conditions, such as difficult climbing. We conclude that an understanding of how expert climbers combine relevant information in order to judge risk can offer ways for them to take more effective preventive measures against injuries, specifically to identify hazards and their combined effects.     

Sharing Strategic Decisions: CEO Humility,TMT Decentralization,and Ethical Culture

Journal of Business Ethics - Humility is increasingly recognized as an essential attribute for individuals at top management levels to build successful organizations. However, research on CEO...     

Poverty Reduction and Economic Structure: Comparative Path Analysis for Mozambique and Vietnam

While economic growth generally reduces income poverty, there are pronounced differences in the strength of this relationship across countries. Typical explanations for this variation include measurement errors in growth–poverty accounting and different compositions of economic growth. We explore the additional influence of economic structure in determining a country's growth–poverty relationship and performance. Using structural path analysis, we compare the experiences of Mozambique and Vietnam—two countries with similar levels and compositions of economic growth but divergent poverty outcomes. We find that the structure of the Vietnamese economy more naturally lends itself to generating broad‐based growth. A given agricultural demand expansion in Mozambique will, ceteris paribus, achieve much less rural income growth than in Vietnam. Inadequate education, trade and transport systems are found to be more severe structural constraints to poverty reduction in Mozambique than in Vietnam. Investing in these areas can significantly enhance the effectiveness of Mozambican growth to reduce poverty.     

Progressive taxation in a dynastic model of human capital

We develop a quantitative theory of economic inequality to investigate the effects of replacing the current U.S. progressive income tax system with a proportional one. The cross-sectional implications of the theory are used to discipline the assessment of the effects of tax policy and circumvent the lack of conclusive micro-evidence on the parameterization of the human capital production technology. We find that the elimination of progressive taxation increases steady state level of output by 12.6%, capital by 21.8%, and consumption by 13.2%. Moreover, it increases economic inequality and its persistence across generations.     

Entrenchment and Severance Pay in Optimal Governance Structures

This paper explores how motivating an incumbent CEO to undertake actions that improve the effectiveness of his management interacts with the firm's policy on CEO replacement. Such policy depends on the presence and the size of severance pay in the CEO's compensation package and on the CEO's influence on the board of directors regarding his own replacement (i.e., entrenchment). We explain when and why the combination of some degree of entrenchment and a sizeable severance package is desirable. The analysis offers predictions about the correlation between entrenchment, severance pay, and incentive compensation.     

TRADE POLICY AND PROTECTIONISM IN ARGENTINA

Protectionism can take many different forms. In some cases, strong export performance can mislead observers assessing the trade policy of a country. Such is the case with regard to Argentina, where the strong showing in exports is not the result of a strategy of export‐led economic growth, but rather reflects a complex strategy of government intervention and isolation from international markets in general.     

The Information Content of Dividend Surprises: Evidence from Germany

This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst consensus forecast as obtained from I/B/E/S as a proxy for the surprise in the dividend announcement. Using data from Germany, we find significant share price reactions after dividend announcements. We use panel methods to analyze the determinants of the share price reactions and find evidence in favour of the cash flow signaling hypothesis and dividend clientele effects. We further find that the price reaction to dividend surprises is related to the ownership structure of the firm. The results do not support the free cash flow hypothesis. An additional result of our analysis is that dividend changes are not an appropriate measure to capture the information content of dividend announcements.     

Settling the debate on multinational capital structure using the CEPR measure

Portfolio theory suggests that because of diversification benefits, multinational corporations (MNCs) should have lower risk and therefore could have more debt. Empirical studies, however, have repeatedly shown that MNCs from the US face higher risks and have lower debt levels. Burgman (1996) suggests that agency costs as well as political and exchange rate risks are the explanation. Kwok and Reeb (2000) explain this puzzle, presenting an upstream-downstream hypothesis suggesting that MNCs from emerging markets reduce their risk by going international (they go to safer markets), while firms from developed countries increase their risk by going abroad (they go to riskier markets). By introducing a new measure of Country Export Partner Risk (CEPR), we show that the weighted average risk level of a country's export trading partners is negatively related to the leverage of its multinationals, thus confirming the upstream-downstream hypothesis. Furthermore, once controlling for CEPR, we find that the multinationality of the firm is positively related to leverage, thus lending support to the traditional diversification argument. Our findings, therefore, help settle the debate between these two opposing streams of multinational capital structure literature.