Value maximizing hurdle rates for R&D investment

We show that the value maximizing hurdle rate for research and development (R&D) investments among private firms operating in a market setting is less than for conventional investments despite the fact that R&D has development risk. Because development risk arises only during R&D, entrepreneurs control this risk by deferring or pursuing R&D depending upon profitability. This risk management moderates downside loss and encourages upside gain which increases the value attraction of R&D and decreases the value maximizing hurdle rate below that of conventional investment.     

The Effect of Regulatory and Risk Management Advancement on Non-Performing Loans in European Banking, 2000–2011

We study whether the implementation of advanced risk management techniques in compliance with the internal ratings-based (IRB) approaches in the Basel Capital Accord reduced non-performing loans (NPLs) and, hence, had a significant impact in controlling credit risk in emerging and advanced European banks during 2000–2011. Our analysis reveals that there exists wide variation in terms of adoption of such advanced techniques across European banks. Emerging Europe, which suffered the most from the surge in NPLs in the post-crisis period, lags significantly behind the Eurozone economies in terms of the intensity of IRB adoption rates. We employ dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation methods in our panel regressions to investigate the effect of such regimes on the level of NPLs on a country level. Our findings confirm that the intensity of IRB usage within a banking system leads to a statistically significant decrease in the aggregate amount of NPLs in the post-crisis period, after controlling for macroeconomic and bank-specific characteristics of individual economies. This result is consistent with the view that the efficiency of credit risk management may turn out to be a critical factor in avoiding widespread banking distress and for improving the profitability and solvency of banking systems as a whole.     

Transparency in the Mortgage Market

This paper studies the impact of transparency in the mortgage market on the underlying real estate market. We show that geographic transparency in the secondary mortgage market, which implies geographic risk based pricing in the primary market, can limit risk-sharing and make house prices more volatile. Ex ante, regions prefer opaque markets to enable insurance opportunities. We discuss the implications for risk based pricing and house price volatility more generally. In addition, we investigate the specific conditions under which competitive lenders would optimally choose to provide opaque lending, thus reducing volatility in the real estate market. We show that in general the opaque competitive equilibrium is not stable, and lenders have incentive to switch to transparent lending if one of the geographic regions has experienced a negative income shock. We propose market and regulatory mechanisms that make the opaque competitive equilibrium stable and insurance opportunities possible.     

Remixing work,family and leisure: teleworkers' experiences of everyday life

This paper explores whether and in what ways telework is associated with a reconfiguration or remixing of daily work, family and leisure activities. Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 51 teleworkers employed in a financial organisation in Canada. For some, telework was a condition of employment, while others negotiated part‐time telework arrangements with managers. Using interpretive thematic analysis techniques, intersections and inter‐relationships between experiences of work, family and leisure were identified. Three main themes emerged, including the need to not only protect, but also containing work time and space; the significance of family and being available for children; and, the relative devaluation of leisure. Although it was anticipated that differences between involuntary and voluntary teleworkers would be evident, gender and family stage were more influential in structuring daily life. The flexibility of telework was valued, but there was little evidence of a reconfiguration of life spheres except for women with children at home.     

Returns-to-scale properties in DEA models: the fundamental role of interior points

Attempts can be found in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature to identify returns to scale at efficient interior points of a face on the basis of returns to scale at points of the corresponding reference sets of the production possibility set. The purpose of this paper is to show that only an interior point of a face can identify returns-to-scale properties of points lying on this face. We consider all possible cases of dispositions of faces from this point of view. Returns-to-scale properties of the corresponding reference units are then established. We also show that to find returns-to-scale at an interior point of a face is a much easier problem than to find all vertices of this face.     

Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles

This paper investigates the Asian real estate price run-up and collapse in the 1990s. We identify financial intermediaries’ underpricing of the put option imbedded in non-recourse mortgage loans as a potential cause for the observed price behavior. This underpricing is due to behavioral causes (lender optimism and disaster myopia) and/or rational response of lenders to market incentives (agency conflicts, deposit insurance, or limited liability of bank shareholders). The empirical evidence suggests that underpricing occurred in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Consequently, these countries experienced a more severe market crash than Hong Kong and Singapore, where underpricing was kept under control by strong government intervention and/or more appropriate incentive mechanisms.     

Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions

This paper provides a methodology for combining forecasts based on several discrete choice models. This is achieved primarily by combining one-step-ahead probability forecasts associated with each model. The paper applies well-established scoring rules for qualitative response models in the context of forecast combination. Log scores, quadratic scores and Epstein scores are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of each model and to combine the probability forecasts. In addition to producing point forecasts, the effect of sampling variation is also assessed. This methodology is applied to forecast US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions regarding changes in the federal funds target rate. Several of the economic fundamentals influencing the FOMC’s decisions are integrated, or I(1), and are modeled in a similar fashion to Hu and Phillips (J Appl Econom 19(7):851– 867, 2004). The empirical results show that combining forecasted probabilities using scores generally outperforms both equal weight combination and forecasts based on multivariate models.