PROJECTION MODELS FOR U.K. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE*

Successful policy planning depends to a large extent on being able to predict the consequences of alternative measures. In the case of agriculture, it is important to know how the future pattern of supply and demand in this sector will be affected by government action on specific issues such as farm price support, and by expected trends in macro-economic variables such as national incomes and population. This paper illustrates the application of a model of U.K. agriculture to the projection of changes in the production and consumption of food and agriculture products between now and 1975. The demand projections show the effect of important levies, and of joining the E.E.C, on future expenditure on food, while the supply projections show how the output of a number of agricultural commodities will be affected by adjusting farm prices towards E.E.C. levels.     

When customers are members: Customer retention in paid membership contexts

This article seeks to gain an understanding of how members’ characteristics relate to lapsing behavior in paid membership contexts. Literatures such as social identity theory are used to propose hypotheses that are tested using a hazard rate model on archival data pertaining to 7,798 members of an art museum. The results indicate that the hazard of lapsing is lowered with increasing duration, participation in special interest groups whose goals are related to those of the focal organization, gift frequency, and increasing interrenewal times. Conversely, members who have downgraded their membership level in the past, those who have participated in special interest groups whose goals are unrelated to those of the focal organization, and those who received their membership as a gift are more likely to lapse. C. B. Bhattacharya is an assistant professor of marketing at the Goizueta Business School of Emory University. His Ph.D. in marketing is from The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. His research interests include brand loyalty and brand health, customer retention, and organizational identification and disidentification. He has published in theJournal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Marketing Letters, and other journals. During the past few years, students in his marketing research course have addressed real problems for over 30 nonprofits. In 1995, he received The Emory Williams Distinguished Teaching Award, which is the highest teaching honor conferred by Emory University.