Danger on the exchange: How counterparty risk was managed on the Paris exchange in the nineteenth century

In the nineteenth century, the Paris Bourse struggled to manage counterparty risk, revealing the awkward choices for the regulation of derivatives markets. The exchange, primarily a forward market, instituted a mutual guarantee fund to prevent broker failures from snowballing into a liquidity crisis. The fund then forced the Bourse to search for mechanisms to control moral hazard. With new archival data, we describe the evolving regulatory regime and analyze the determinants of broker failures. The Bourse faced a conundrum; when it finally imposed a tight regulatory regime that limited risk, trading began to migrate off the exchange to less regulated markets.     

Poverty trap and global indeterminacy in a growth model with open-access natural resources

In this paper we use global analysis techniques to analyze an economic growth model with environmental negative externalities, giving rise to a three-dimensional dynamic system (the framework is the one introduced by Wirl (1997) [53]). The dynamics of our model admits a locally attracting stationary state , which is, in fact, a poverty trap, coexisting with another stationary state possessing saddle-point stability. Global dynamical analysis shows that, under some conditions on the parameters, if the initial values of the state variables are close enough to the coordinates of , then there exists a continuum of equilibrium trajectories approaching and one trajectory approaching . Therefore, our model exhibits global indeterminacy, since either or can be selected according to agent expectations. Moreover, we prove that conditions guaranteeing the attractivity of also imply the saddle-point stability of . However, when is not attractive, numerical simulations show the possible existence of one or two limit cycles: an attractive one surrounding and one endowed with a two-dimensional stable manifold surrounding .     

Be productive or face decline. On the sources and determinants of output growth in Italian manufacturing firms

This article investigates the sources and determinants of output growth of Italian manufacturing firms. Applying stochastic frontier techniques, we decompose output growth into factor accumulation and TFP growth for the period 1998–2003. TFP growth is further decomposed into technological change, efficiency change and scale effects. Two key results emerge from the analysis. After confirming that both input accumulation and TFP growth are important in explaining output growth, we show that efficiency change (technological catch-up) is the most significant component of TFP growth in explaining output growth distribution. Furthermore, using a specific model of the asymmetric error component, we find that R&D spillovers, banking efficiency and public infrastructures have statistically significant and economically relevant effects on technological catch-up.     

Inflation, unemployment, and the time consistency of the US monetary policy

This paper verifies the performance of the Barro and Gordon (1983) model to explain the US inflation since the early 1950s. We divide the period from 1951:2 to 2010:2 according to each chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED). In addition, we consider aggregated periods, represented by pre-Volcker, Volcker-Greenspan, Greenspan-Bernanke, and whole sample. A genetic algorithm of stochastic search is applied to reduce the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimator to the initial parameter values. Surprisingly, our results show that the time consistency problem explains the US inflation during the Greenspan chairmanship at the FED.     

The concept of individual semantic maps in clinical psychology: a feasibility study on a new paradigm

In this paper we propose a new technology able to map the underlying connection scheme among several psychological variables in a single individual. Nine patients with chronic heart failure underwent at regular intervals, two electronic questionnaires to evaluate depression (STAI—short form) and anxiety (STAY-6). Individual semantic maps were developed by Auto Contractive Map, a new data mining tool based on an artificial neural networks acting on the small data set formed by questionnaires items applied serially along time. The clinical psychologist involved in the clinical evaluation of the cases was asked to score the consistency between the information emerging from the graph depicting the structure of the main relationships among items and the clinical picture resulting from the psychological colloquium. All cases reported overall judgments of a good consistency suggesting that the mathematical architecture of the system is able to capture in the dynamics of items value variations through time the underlying construct of the patient psychological status. This technology is promising in remote monitoring of patients’ psychological condition in different settings with the possibility to implement personalized psychological interventions.     

Urbanizing Urban Political Ecology: A Critique of Methodological Cityism

Urban political ecology (UPE), an offshoot of political ecology that emerged in the late 1990s, has had two major impacts on critical urban studies: it has introduced critical political ecology to urban settings, and it has provided a framework for retheorizing the city as a product of metabolic processes of socionatural transformation. However, there was another goal in early UPE programmatic statements that has largely fallen by the wayside: to mobilize a Lefebvrian theoretical framework to trouble traditional distinctions between urban/rural and society/nature by exploring urbanization as a global process. Instead of following this potentially fruitful path, UPE has become bogged down in ‘methodological cityism’––an overwhelming analytical and empirical focus on the traditional city to the exclusion of other aspects of contemporary urbanization processes. Thus UPE's Lefebvrian promise, of a research program that could work across traditional disciplinary divisions and provide insights into a new era of planetary urbanization, has remained unfulfilled. In this article we trace UPE's history to show how it arrived at its present predicament, and offer some thoughts on a research agenda for a political ecology not of the city but of urbanization.     

Economic Growth,Technological Progress and Social Capital: The Inverted U Hypothesis

We set up a theoretical framework to analyse the role of economic growth and technological progress in the erosion of social capital. Under certain conditions on parameters, the relationship between technological progress and social capital can take the shape of an inverted U curve. Furthermore, we show the circumstances that allow the economy to follow trajectories where the stock of social capital grows endogenously and unboundedly.     

A model of the innovation-adaptation mechanism driving economic dynamics: a micro representation

The model that this paper sets out is based on a combination of the Schumpeterian creative destruction and the neo-Austrian notion of market process. It gives a formalization of the succession innovation-structural organization and its endogenous mechanism, crucial to explain economic growth and development. More in particular, the essay gives an explanation of innovation, endogenous uncertainty and describes the way equilibrating and disequilibrating processes are intertwined and operate. It also shows that a representation of this dynamic competition process cannot do without some appropriate development on entrepreneurship and its links with uncertainty. Finally, some simulations with the proposed model are providedJEL Classification: M13, O31, D80, E32, O12I am indebted to C. R. Wymer for his advice and for the computer programs that have permitted the simulation of the model in this paper, including choice and substitutions of variables and specification of inequality conditions. These programs form part of the WYSEA (System Estimation and Analysis) package.