Concertation and local development

This article examines cooperative modes of regulation of local economies that in Europe increasingly take the form of concertation (partnership) – i.e. formalized agreement on common goals stated by collective actors with traditionally/potentially contrasting interests. This kind of agreement (‘pacts’) is increasingly institutionalized; ‘institutionalization’ being the process through which certain behaviours are steadily promoted, required, even made obligatory, by actors other than those putting them into effect, who demand conformity to their values and beliefs in return for making resources available. The process in question is particularly visible in EU countries, and it can be interpreted both as an opportunity to construct a model of a social Europe and as an opportunity to defend the features of this model that were subject to rapid erosion during the 1990s. Recurrent forms of partnership are: public–private and public–public partnerships; ‘regionalized’ industrial relations; ‘second–generation’ industrial districts; urban strategic planning; and territorial pacts. To order them, a typology is proposed on the basis of the dichotomy between exogenous/endogenous actors/resources. Three main constraints to an effective working of local concertation are then discussed: local presence of ‘global players’; excessive institutionalization; and lack of adequate implementation structures. Starting from the latter, some working hypotheses are proposed on a new ‘organizational population’, namely, the organizations of local development. Cet article examine les modes de régulation collectifs des économies locales, ceux–ci prenant de plus en plus souvent la forme d’une concertation (partenariat), accord formel sur des objectifs communs énoncés par un collectif d’acteurs dont les intérêts sont habituellement ou éventuellement opposés. Ce type d’accord (pacte) s’institutionnalise progressivement au travers d’un processus grâce auquel certains comportements sont toujours encouragés, demandés, voire exigés, par des acteurs qui, d’une part, ne sont pas ceux qui les appliquent et, d’autre part, réclament le respect de leurs valeurs et convictions en contrepartie de la mise à disposition de ressources. Ce processus, particulièrement évident dans les pays de l’U.E., peut s’interpréter à la fois comme une possibilité de construire un modèle d’Europe sociale et comme une chance de défendre les caractéristiques de ce modèle alors que celles–ci se sont rapidement dégradées dans les années 1990. Les formes récurrentes de partenariat sont: partenariats public–privé et public–public, liens industriels régionaux, districts industriels ‘de deuxième génération’, urbanisme stratégique et pactes territoriaux. L’article propose une typologie basée sur les dichotomies acteurs/ressources exogènes/endogènes. Il déduit ensuite les trois principales entraves à une concertation locale efficace: la présence locale de ‘joueurs de niveau international‘, un excès d’institutionnalisation et un manque de structures de mise en ?uvre appropriées. A partir de ce dernier point, sont présentées quelques hypothèses de travail sur une nouvelle ‘population organisationnelle‘, autrement dit des organisations de développement local.     

Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world

The paper develops and tests a general equilibrium model in which variability, or risk, affects the choice of portfolios. Our measures of variability include only the variability of unanticipated growth in monetary and non-monetary aggregates, and our tests use data ending with the change in Federal Reserve procedures in October 1979. We find that increased variability of unanticipated money growth raises demands for debt and money, and reduces the demand for real capital. Interest rates on both short- and long-term debt rise by a risk premium. We estimate the size of the risk premium before and after the October 1979 change, and we show that the change in Federal Reserve procedures moved the economy to a less efficient point.     

Common Properties and Sectoral Specificities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Companies

The size distribution and growth rate dynamics of U.S. companieshave been extensively studied by many authors. In this paper,using the COMPUSTAT database, we extend the analysis todisaggregated data, studying 15 sectors of the U.S.manufacturing industry. The sectoral investigation reveals thepresence of general statistical properties that can be consideredvalid across all the studied sectors. In particular, theprobability density of firms growth rates invariably displays acharacteristic tent shape and the relation between the size of afirm and the variance of its rates of growth is characterized, indifferent sectors, by very similar scaling relations. Thepresence of characteristics that are robust and sectoral invarianthints at the existence of generic statistical properties shapingthe dynamic of firms across the whole industry.     

Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.     

The social costs of crime: the erosion of trust between citizens and public institutions

Economics of Governance - More than half the population considers lack of security a significant national problem in Peru, and one in four citizens has reported being the victim of a crime....     

A Cause for Alarm? The Long-term Performance of Shareholder Class Action Defendants

Using two decades of shareholder class action filings, we provide evidence of significant and consistent long-run price underperformance in defendant firms. By partitioning our sample according to the merits of an action, we show that firms less likely to have been involved in earnings manipulation, but who may have benefited from corrective management improvements and better signalling, go on to experience significant price reversals within a year of the filing date. Firms identified as high probability manipulators underperform over the long-term. Our results have important implications for ongoing policy discussions on the merits of shareholder class actions.     

DOES INITIAL ACCESS TO BANK LOANS PREDICT START‐UPS' FUTURE DEFAULT PROBABILITY? EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

In Europe, several countries have established public loan guarantee funds throughout direct/indirect loan programs to facilitate the access of SMEs and start‐ups to bank credit. This paper investigates whether start‐ups' level of access to bank loans during the early stage represents an imprinting factor with effects on the likelihood of survival once the firm reaches maturity. We rely on a firm‐level longitudinal data set of 49,111 Italian startups born from 2003 to 2005. Implementing a 2SLS regression analysis we show that the initial level of start‐up bank debt negatively influences the probability of default controlling for firm characteristics and performance. (JEL G21, M20, H32)     

Drivers of participation in collective arrangements in the agri‐food supply chain. Evidence from Italy using a transaction costs economics perspective

The analysis of institutions in the agro‐food sector is gaining momentum since it represents a complex and relevant area of study as concerns intermediate‐product markets. Traditionally there has been a problem of organization among farmers mainly due to the reluctance to pool decisional and property rights on input and/or output. Following the Transaction Costs Economics framework, the paper aims to investigate which are the main drivers of the collective forms of organization in the Italian agro‐food system, paying particular attention to transaction costs’ attributes and to the increasing role played by the institutional environment as well. The choice to join a cooperative or producer organization is therefore conceptualized as a governance structure choice. In this regard, based on the Italian version of the Farm Accountancy Data Network, econometric models are estimated in order to account for the two organizational alternatives under investigation.     

Coexistence of Strategies and Culturally-Specific Common Knowledge: An Evolutionary Analysis

We analyze social dynamics in a continuous population where randomly matched individuals have to choose between two pure strategies only ('cooperate' (C) and 'not cooperate' (NC)). Individual payoffs associated with the possible outcomes of each interaction may differ across groups, depending on the specific social and cultural context to which each agent belongs. In particular, it is assumed that three sub-populations are initially present, 'framing' the game according to the prisoner's dilemma (PD), assurance game (AG) and other regarding (OR) payoff configurations, respectively. In other words, we assume that common knowledge about the payoffs of the game is 'culturally-specific'. In this context, we examine both the adoption process of strategies C and NC within each sub-population and the diffusion process of 'types' (PD, AG and OR) within the overall community. On the basis of an evolutionary game-theoretic approach, the paper focuses on the problem of coexistence of PD, AG and OR groups as well as of 'nice' (C) and 'mean' (NC) strategies. We show that coexistence between C and NC is possible in the heterogeneous community under examination, even if it is ruled out in homogeneous communities where only one of the three types is present. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.