Maximum entropy autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model

In many applications, it has been found that the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model under the conditional normal or Student’s t distributions are not general enough to account for the excess kurtosis in the data. Moreover, asymmetry in the financial data is rarely modeled in a systematic way. In this paper, we suggest a general density function based on the maximum entropy (ME) approach that takes account of asymmetry, excess kurtosis and also of high peakedness. The ME principle is based on the efficient use of available information, and as is well known, many of the standard family of distributions can be derived from the ME approach. We demonstrate how we can extract information functional from the data in the form of moment functions. We also propose a test procedure for selecting appropriate moment functions. Our procedure is illustrated with an application to the NYSE stock returns. The empirical results reveal that the ME approach with a fewer moment functions leads to a model that captures the stylized facts quite effectively.     

Strategy and environment as determinants of performance: Evidence from the Japanese machine tool industry

This study examines the roles played by the environment and realized strategies on firm-level performance in the Japanese machine tool industry. We examine the effect of environment and strategy on performance using longitudinal data on a sample of 25 Japanese machine tool firms over the period 1979-92. Our results indicate that both firm strategies and the environment play significant roles in influencing profitability and growth. More specifically, whereas both strategy and environmental variables are significantly related to firm profitability, only environmental variables are associated with firm growth. Additionally, in contrast to U.S. based studies, we find that capital expenditures and technological change are not negatively associated with profitability. Rather technological change has a positive impact on firm growth. We discuss the implications of these results for strategic management and provide suggestions for future research.     

Does group membership matter? Evidence from the Japanese steel industry

In this study we address criticism that performance differences among strategic groups found in past research may be spurious and attributable to firm effects. The Japanese steel industry provides the setting for the study. Our analysis is based on data from the carbon steel sector of the Japanese steel industry for the periods 1980–87 and 1988–93. A one-way ANOVA indicated that the average performance of firms in the two technology-based groups in this industry—the integrated mills and the minimills—were significantly different during the two periods. Subsequently, we performed a regression analysis to examine the residual group effect after controlling for both environment and firm-specific effects. We found that even after controlling for both environment and firm-specific effects group membership was significantly associated with firm performance. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Option Value to Waiting Created by a Control Problem

We study a principal-agent model in which there is an option to defer a capital project approval decision. A control (incentive) problem makes the option to wait valuable when it would not have been valuable otherwise. Deferring the project approval decision has both a cost and a benefit. The cost of waiting is that the agent's uncertainty regarding future project cost realizations cannot be exploited. However, by delaying the first project's approval decision, the principal can condition its approval on the agent's cost report of the second project. Such conditioning can be valuable in the provision of incentives because of a diversification effect.     

Volatility of stock prices and market efficiency

Recently, historical price series along with the dividend series have been used to severely question the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. The literature suggests that the stock prices vary too much to be explained by subsequent changes in dividends. It is argued in this paper that these results require the assumption of stationarity of the price process and that this assumption is not compatible with the random walk model of Efficient Markets. A non-stationary dividend process, which is compatible with the random walk model of Efficient Markets, results in a reversal of earlier results. The new results are shown to be consistent with the empirical findings. Simulations are run to verify the results.     

Employer matching and 401(k) saving: Evidence from the health and retirement study

Employer matching of employee 401(k) contributions is often touted as a powerful incentive to save for retirement and is a key component in pension-plan design in the United States. Using detailed administrative contribution, earnings, and pension-plan data from the Health and Retirement Study, this analysis formulates a life-cycle-consistent econometric specification of 401(k) saving and estimates the determinants of saving accounting for non-linearities in the household budget set induced by matching. The participation estimates indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401(k) participation by 5 percentage points. The parametric and semi-parametric estimates for saving indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401(k) saving by $365 (in 1991 dollars). Overall, the analysis reveals that the 401(k) saving response to matching is quite inelastic, and, hence, matching is a rather poor policy instrument with which to raise retirement saving.     

Mechanism Design under Alternative Information Structures and Constrained Capacity

In applied models, the choice of a particular incomplete information structure appears to have been motivated primarily by technical convenience. The information structures used can be classified as either probabilistic or partitional. Information is probabilistic if no agent can rule out any type profile of the remaining agents and, for at least one type of one agent, the conditional and marginal probability distributions over the remaining agents' types are not equal. Information is partitional if the only information the agents have is that one or more agents (individually) can rule out type profiles of the remaining agents and, for at least one type of one agent, that agent has information about the remaining agents. Partitional information includes complete information as a special case. Existing results on complete information environments suggest that partitional information might simplify implementation problems. Within the context of an applied agency model in which capacity is constrained, we provide results that seem to challenge this intuition.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C72, D82.     

UNDERSTANDING INDUSTRIAL CRISES[1]

This article provides a conceptual framework for understanding industrial crises. These crises are organizationally-based disasters which cause extensive damage and social disruption, involve multiple stakeholders, and unfold through complex technological, organizational and social processes. The characteristics of industrial crises are illustrated through a comparison of three diverse crises - the Bhopal disaster, the Tylenol poisonings, and the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger. Relationships among these characteristics are presented in a model of industrial crisis. Some issues for further research are identified.     

Dynamic Capabilities and Organizational Performance: A Meta‐Analytic Evaluation and Extension

We move the dynamic capabilities view (DCV) forward in two important ways by meta‐analysing prior empirical studies. First, we evaluate the two core theoretical tenets of the DCV: (1) Dynamic capabilities are positively related to performance, and (2) this relationship is stronger in industries with higher levels of technological dynamism. We find support for the former (r_c = 0.296) but not for the latter, though results suggest the existence of moderators. Second, we theorize and demonstrate empirically that higher‐order dynamic capabilities are more strongly related to performance than lower‐order dynamic capabilities, lower‐order dynamic capabilities partially mediate the relationship between higher‐order dynamic capabilities and performance, and dynamic capabilities contribute more to performance in developing economies than in developed economies. These findings illustrate how the nature of the dynamic capability and the economic context in which it is utilized shape its value, thus offering a more nuanced conceptualization of the dynamic capabilities‐performance relationship.     

Taxing air pollutants and carbon individually or jointly: results from a CGE model enriched by an emission abatement sector

We analyse the separate and collective impacts of emissions taxation to understand the internalisation effects of externalities. The analysis is carried out using a static computable general equilibrium model, with unemployment, bottom-up abatement technologies represented by a step function, and detailed emission coefficients. Environmental and health external costs are quantified using the ExternE’s Impact Pathway Approach. Emissions, as a result of environmental taxation, fall through reduced output, production factor substitution, and increased end of pipe abatement activity. The analysis shows that a full internalisation of environmental externalities can result in modest overall economic and environmental welfare gains. There are, however, differences in terms of employment and output, depending on what combination of taxes are applied, which sectors are covered, and how fiscal revenues are redistributed. Air quality benefits range from €35–75 per ton of CO₂ abated. Total environmental benefits always exceed GDP loss and the associated welfare loss.