MODELING INTERNATIONAL CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

This article addresses a number of key problems commonly confronted in the literature on international demand analysis. These include data issues and requirements, multistage budgeting, outliers, group heteroskedasticity, and model selection. A two-stage demand system is fit to International Comparison Programme data for 114 countries for nine aggregate categories and eight food sub-categories of goods. Outliers are identified and omitted from the sample. Parameter estimates for the two stages are obtained with a maximum-likelihood procedure that corrects for group heteroskedasticity. Country-specific income and own-price elasticities are calculated and indicate that poor countries are more responsive to changes in income and prices than rich countries. We also find evidence for the strong version of Engel's law; when income doubles, the budget share of food declines by approximately 0.10.     

Bubbles,crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Experimental Economics - We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of...     

The development of capabilities in new firms

This research explores evidence of corporate capabilities for conducting acquisition and alliance deals in young firms. We hypothesize that investors conjecture about the future based on information about a firm's capabilities. Each successive deal carries intrinsic value, creates experience, generates feedback, and yields information about the firm's underlying capabilities. We evaluate whether stock prices impute expectations that firms will capably pursue particular programs of acquisitions and alliances. The analysis covers how investor responses change across successive deals on the theory that firms with a concentrated program of deals may develop capabilities more intensively than those with programs that involve both acquisitions and alliances. The dataset covers the population of firms that went through an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States between 1988 and 1999. It contains information on all of their post‐IPO acquisitions and alliances, and on how their stock prices changed in response to the announcement of each deal. The results suggest that within the first year after IPO, investors expect firms to execute particular streams of alliances and acquisitions that reflect their unique histories of demonstrated capabilities. We also find evidence that investors cannot fully anticipate deal programs. The findings support a capabilities‐based view of the firm and also show that accurate inference using event‐study methods may require digging deep into the early histories of firms. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term health-related burden of adult congenital heart diseases in Hong Kong

Aims: This study aimed to examine the long-term clinical and economic burden of adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) in Hong Kong.

Methods: It retrospectively analyzed 336 consecutive ACHD patients who attended the Adult Congenital Heart Clinic between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2014. Direct medical costs and clinical outcomes over the 5 years were calculated and documented. The economic evaluation was from the hospital’s perspective.

Results: The median age of ACHD patients was 47 (31–62) years old, with female predominance (61.5%). Ventricular and atrial septal defects accounted for 70% and severe ACHD for 10% of the study cohort. The prevalence of arrhythmia and heart failure increased with the complexity of CHD. The total mean annual cost for managing each ACHD patient was USD 2,913. The annual cost of management of simple ACHD was USD 2,638 vs complex ACHD (USD 6,425) (p?=?0.013).

Conclusions: This study demonstrated severe ACHD patients accounted for higher cardiovascular morbidities in arrhythmias and heart failure with a higher cost of management.     

Clinical outcomes and economic impact of transcatheter mitral leaflet repair in heart failure patients

Background: Mitral regurgitation (MR) is a common valvular heart disorder requiring intervention once it becomes severe. Transcatheter mitral repair with the MitraClip device is a safe and effective therapy for selected patients denied surgery. The authors sought to evaluate the clinical outcomes and economic impact of this therapy compared to medical management in heart-failure patients with symptomatic mitral regurgitation.

Methods and results: The study was comprised of two phases; an observational study of patients with heart failure and mitral regurgitation treated with either medical therapy or the MitraClip, and an economic model. Results of the observational study were used to estimate parameters for the decision model, which estimated costs, and benefits in a hypothetical cohort of patients with heart failure and moderate-to-severe mitral regurgitation treated with either standard medical therapy or MitraClip. The cohort of patients treated with the MitraClip was propensity matched to a population of heart failure patients, and their outcomes compared. At a mean follow-up of 22 months, all-cause mortality was 21% in the MitraClip cohort and 42% in the medical management cohort (p?=?.007). The decision model demonstrated that MitraClip increased life expectancy from 1.87–3.60 years and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) from 1.13–2.76 years. The incremental cost was $52,500 Canadian dollars, corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $32,300.00 per QALY gained. Results were sensitive to the survival benefit.

Conclusion: In heart failure patients with symptomatic moderate–severe mitral regurgitation, therapy with the MitraClip is associated with superior survival and is cost-effective compared to medical therapy.     

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Marketing micro-finance to women: integrating global with local

• Since the 2005 ‘International Year of Microfinance’, how well are micro-finance interventions (MFIs) working? MFIs are often seen as a panacea for poverty reduction, particularly among women and through enterprise development. Yet MFIs in Africa have often failed, and may even cause more harm than good. In East Africa for example, MFIs continue to advocate that one size (credit only) fits all strategy. Such a generic remedy is by definition relatively (i) harmonized but not necessarily (ii) aligned with the full diversity of preferences and norms at a local grassroots level. To improve any marketing ‘fit’ between MFIs and local market contexts in East Africa, interventions can become more pluralistic, blending global with local solutions. Based on a review of research with economically poor women in East Africa, a blend of ‘credit only’ and communal-based systems like ‘rotating savings’ and ‘credit associations’, is suggested. Diversified delivery systems like this are antithetical to (i) harmonisation, but would improve the degree of (ii) alignment between MFIs and the adaptively pluralistic belief systems already in place. Hence a key to making MFIs more sustainable, and thereby reducing poverty more effectively, is to respect their global–local interface, or ‘glocality’.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.