Post‐conflict stabilization in Africa

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success     

Spaghetti-Kroketten oder Karottenstaub

Interview mit dem Heimkoch und Gerontologen Markus Biedermann - Studien weisen darauf hin, dass in Pflegeeinrichtungen mindestens jeder dritte Pflegebedürftige mangelern?hrt ist. Gerade demente Menschen leiden unter Kau- und Schluckst?rungen, k?nnen nicht mehr mit dem Besteck umgehen und vergessen Hunger und Durst. Essen auch für diese Bewohner wieder zu einem sinnlichen Erlebnis zu machen, ist der Ansatz des Schweizers.     

The Erosion of the German System of Industrial Relations

The paper assesses current trajectories of change in the German system of industrial relations by analysing the co-determination and collective bargaining systems. It argues that two parallel developments undermine the institutional stability of the German model. First, the institutional base of the German industrial relations system, which has served as the pre-condition of its past success, has been shrinking during the last two decades. This is due to a decline in coverage by the two major industrial relations institutions: the works council system and wage agreements. Today fewer than 15 per cent of German plants are covered by both a valid collective agreement and a works council. Second, increasing decentralization pressures within collective bargaining tend to undermine the division of labour between co-determination and collective bargaining. The dynamics of an institutional erosion of the German industrial relations institutions and the decentralization of collective bargaining disturbs the fine-tuning of the mediating process between macroeconomic steering capacity and co-operative workplace industrial relations. This tendency has been aggravated by the effects of German unification. The current institutional developments of the German industrial relations system leave serious doubts about the future of a successful model of co-operative modernization.     

Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model

In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture fundamental properties of financial prices at the transaction level. Our model relies on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the price changes. Since the model is capable of capturing a wide range of discrete price movements it is particularly suited for financial markets where the trading intensity is moderate or low. We present the model at work by applying it to transaction data of two shares traded at the NYSE traded over a period of one trading month. We show that the model is well suited to test some theoretical implications of the market microstructure theory on the relationship between price movements and other marks of the trading process. Based on density forecast methods modified for the case of discrete random variables we show that our model is capable to explain large parts of the observed distribution of price changes at the transaction level.

Stürze gezielt vermeiden

Ein kleiner Stolperschritt, ein kurzer Schwindel – schon ist es passiert. Die Folgen sind oft schwerwiegend: Denn Hüftfrakturen oder Oberschenkelhalsbrüche k?nnen zum Ausl?ser von Pflegebedürftigkeit werden. Besonders gef?hrdet sind ?ltere Menschen.     

Europe’s Path Towards the Socio-Ecological Transition

Beset by an unprecedented combination of challenges including globalisation, demographic shifts, high unemployment and climate change, Europe is in dire need of a new kind of growth and development strategy. The authors of this Forum make compelling arguments for a socioecological transition, in which traditional measures of progress like GDP growth are downplayed in favour of factors such as social inclusion, environmental welfare, high levels of employment and the well-being of European citizens. This Forum explores some of the issues that must be resolved in order to fully achieve the socio-ecological transition, including the necessary decoupling of non-renewable energy use from GDP growth, the reduction of income and wealth inequalities, and the encouragement of innovation that is not based on fossil fuel technology. The Forum presents an optimistic path forward for the continent, with practical policy solutions that do not ignore the many obstacles facing a successful transition.     

Common stories of reintroduction: A discourse analysis of documents supporting animal reintroductions to Scotland

Political decisions on environmental issues are increasingly required to be ‘knowledge based’, which has led to a wealth of (scientific) expert documents that aim to inform decision-making. However, the roles of rhetoric and argumentation in those documents have received relatively little scientific attention. We studied 111 expert documents in support of reintroductions to Scotland and identified the elements that constituted the discourses of white-tailed eagle, beaver and lynx. Similar building blocks (so-called storylines) were found in all three debates. The pro-reintroduction discourse as a whole bore resemblance with other contemporary environmental management discourses: In what could be termed ‘win-win logic’, positive storylines were combined to point at the necessity of a management intervention, in our case a reintroduction. Yet, additional mechanisms were also at work which suggests that downplaying negatives can be as important as dwelling on positives. Crucially, we found that the Scottish pro-reintroduction discourse might have become increasingly ‘reflexive’ in terms of its rhetoric and argumentation. The latter development may have major implications for political decision-making. A more critical use of rhetoric and argumentation in expert documentation is needed to achieve environmental political decision-making that is open to any possible outcome of deliberation (including non-reintroduction).