A Recursive Scheme for Perpetuities with Random Positive Interest Rates. II: The Impenetrable Wall

In some former contributions, the authors investigated actuarial quantities with stochastic interest rates. In a first model, the randomness is modelled by means of an ordinary Wiener process, and as a consequence negative interest rates are possible. A second model provides a tool to avoid these negative interest rates, which can be necessary in particular situations. This paper wants to present an alternative solution to the problem of negative interest rates. This new model will be implemented to the case of an annuity certain and of a perpetuity.     

Stable Laws and the Present Value of Fixed Cash Flows

Abstract

In this paper, the authors consider the present value of a series of fixed cash flows under stochastic interest rates. To model these interest rates, they don’t use the common lognormal model, but stable laws, which better fit in with reality. Their main intention is to derive a result for the distribution function of such a present value. However, due to the dependencies between successive discounted payments, the calculation of an exact analytical distribution is impossible. Therefore, use is made of the methodology of comonotonic random variables and the convex ordering of risks, introduced by the same authors in some previous papers.

The present paper starts with a brief overview of properties and features of stable laws, and of the possible application of the concept of convex ordering to sums of risks, which is also the situation for a present value of future payments. Afterwards, the authors show how, for the present value under investigation, an approximation in the form of a convex upper bound can be derived. This upper bound has an easier structure than the original present value, and they derive elegant calculation formulas for the distribution of this bound. Finally, they provide some numerical examples that illustrate the precision of the approximation. Due to the design of the present value and the construction of the upper bound, these illustrations show great promise concerning the accuracy of the approximation.     

Development costs and funding of extra care housing

This article reports findings from an indepth evaluation of extra care housing (a form of assisted living positioned between sheltered housing and care homes) for older people in the UK. The information presented is a significant improvement on that previously in the public domain. The authors conclude that a careful reappraisal of cost components and a more integrated approach across housing, health and social care is required, particularly in a climate of public funding cuts.     

Exploring the Causes of Accounting Restatements by Family Firms

Prior research shows that family firms have better earnings quality than non‐family firms in common‐law countries and highly developed markets. In contrast, we do not find a significant difference in the financial reporting quality between family and non‐family firms in the context of a civil‐law system and less developed market. We show that the financial reporting quality of family firms is conditioned on: (1) the divergence between the controlling shareholders’ voting rights and their cash flow rights, and (2) the firm's reputation for integrity, while these two conditions do not explain the restatement likelihood for non‐family firms. Moreover, when accounting irregularities are detected in the case of family firms, they are associated with more serious accounting restatements. Together, these results imply that the severity of the conflict between ultimate and minority shareholders, and a lack of integrity, explain the propensity for making financial restatements among family firms in a regime characterized as having weak investor protection and concentrated ownership structures.     

Exploring the relationship between investor sentiment and price volatility

By performing Grey relation analysis, this study elucidates the relationship between investor sentiment and price volatility in the Taiwanese stock market. A sequential relationship is identified between investor sentiment and price volatility, and ranked according to order of importance. Analytical results show that short sales volumes may be an individual leading indicator useful in observing the effects of sentiment on price volatility, followed by open interest put/call ratios and trading volumes, and buy/sell orders. Institutional investors are related, to a lesser extent, to price volatility and sentiment. Qualified foreign institutional investors, or more rational investors, are the least influenced by price volatility, followed by securities investment trust companies and dealers. TAIEX options exert the strongest influence on sentiment during the study period, making them a valuable reference for gauging price volatility.     

Bayesian estimation of truncated data with applications to operational risk measurement

Data insufficiency and reporting threshold are two main issues in operational risk modelling. When these conditions are present, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) may produce very poor parameter estimates. In this study, we first investigate four methods to estimate the parameters of truncated distributions for small samples—MLE, expectation-maximization algorithm, penalized likelihood estimators, and Bayesian methods. Without any proper prior information, Jeffreys’ prior for truncated distributions is used. Based on a simulation study for the log-normal distribution, we find that the Bayesian method gives much more credible and reliable estimates than the MLE method. Finally, an application to the operational loss severity estimation using real data is conducted using the truncated log-normal and log-gamma distributions. With the Bayesian method, the loss distribution parameters and value-at-risk measure for every cell with loss data can be estimated separately for internal and external data. Moreover, confidence intervals for the Bayesian estimates are obtained via a bootstrap method.     

Book reviews

Valid measures of how people view risks due to combinations of hazards are needed. 320 adult smokers responded to four vignettes in which hypothetical men were described as having high or low levels of (1) smoking and (2) either (a) blood cholesterol or (b) family history of CHD (coronary heart disease). Ratings of the risk of a heart attack were made using one of three different rating scales: (a) nine‐point, (b) 101‐point, and (c) unbounded. The nine‐point scale yielded a strong sub‐additive interaction, the 101‐point scale yielded a weak sub‐additive interaction, and the unbounded scale yielded a weak synergistic interaction. Although respondents preferred the nine‐point scale, evidence from this and other studies suggest that scales with nine points or fewer should not be used to assess perceptions of risks due to multiple hazards.     

Photo-elicitation: Using photographs to read retail interiors through consumers' eyes

Researchers studying experiences in retail environments have typically focused their attention towards positivistically examining the influence of individual atmospheric variables upon customer behavior. In this respect photographs are common environmental simulation techniques. This approach concerns not only researchers active in consumer culture, but also interior architects and retail designers, working in a disciplinary tradition that maintains that interiors function as “Gestalt” environments, interacting with their users. In this paper, the authors aim to develop understanding of retail environments as sites of complex sensory experiences and the application of photo-elicitation as an interpretive research methodology concerning experiences in retail environments. The paper discusses the results of two exploratory studies within selected retail environments, and demonstrates the value of photo-elicitation in gaining insight into experiences in retail interiors. Photo-elicitation thus contributes new knowledge of the retail environment, and adds value to positivistic research approaches that have predominated in this field.     

The MultiJurisdictional Disclosure System: Model for Future Cooperation?

This study investigates whether the MultiJurisdictional Disclosure System (MJDS) was successful in meeting its stated objectives, namely, facilitating cross-border offerings and reporting by Canadian firms. The MJDS is a bilateral agreement implemented in July 1991 between Canadian and US market regulators. It is hypothesized that facilitating crossborder offerings via the MJDS will lead to an increase in the number of US listings by Canadian firms and reduced costs of US listing for extant Canadian listers. Data evaluated include changes in US exchange listings from 1987 to 1995 and questionnaires to two subgroups of Canadian firms: (1) the population of Canadian firms listing their securities in US and Canadian markets and (2) a sample of Canadian firms listing only on Canadian exchanges. We conclude that for most Canadian firms, the MJDS provides no significant benefit. Further, few firms reported that the MJDS affected their decision to list in the United States. Our results suggest that the MJDS has not, overall, provided the benefits originally envisioned under it, and we question whether it is an appropriate model for future cooperation between national regulatory groups.