Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

Explorations - Introduction: Towards Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Perspectives in Economics: Why and How They May Make a Difference

The economics profession has only recently begun to include research on lesbians and gay men, but we argue that a lesbian economics has long existed, with documentation of anti-lesbian discrimination, discussion of its private and social costs, and practical work for change. This tradition, along with the newer traditions built upon work with gay men and bisexual people, provides a basis for feminists to expand work in economics on lesbian and gay issues. The articles in the symposium propose ideas for future research, for learning from other disciplines, and for creating a more welcoming academic climate.     

Strongly stable networks

We analyze the formation of networks among individuals. In particular, we examine the existence of networks that are stable against changes in links by any coalition of individuals. We show that to investigate the existence of such strongly stable networks one can restrict focus on a component-wise egalitarian allocation of value. We show that when such strongly stable networks exist they coincide with the set of efficient networks (those maximizing the total productive value). We show that the existence of strongly stable networks is equivalent to core existence in a derived cooperative game and use that result to characterize the class of value functions for which there exist strongly stable networks via a “top convexity” condition on the value function on networks. We also consider a variation on strong stability where players can make side payments, and examine situations where value functions may be non-anonymous—depending on player labels.     

The Impact of Agricultural Import Tariff on Economic Growth： Evidence From Mercosur Countries

This research paper attempts to determine the relationship between agricultural import tariff and economic growth of Mercosur countries over the period 1996-2007 using regression analysis as well as evaluates the gains and losses from the group＇s trade policy over the same period. The introductory part of this paper focuses on the dynamics of changes in economic growth, trade, and import tariff of these countries over the last two decades. The results of the performed regression analysis of panel data suggest that trade liberalization has a quantitatively significant positive effect on growth. By using the coefficient estimates on tariff, the authors perform a quantitative evaluation of gains and losses from trade policy, for which tariff measures to trade （imports） are used as a proxy.     

Efficiency characteristics of a market for state contingent claims

This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel sets of bookmaker and parimutuel odds identifies inefficiency in terms of zones of distinct but contrasting forms of cross-;market returns differential. The inefficiency is rationalized in terms of both buyer and supplier behaviour; its durability is explained in terms of limited arbitrage opportunities.