Negative nominal interest rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound

The paper considers three methods for eliminating the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and thus for restoring symmetry to the domain over which the Central Bank can vary its official policy rate. They are: (1) abolishing currency (which would also be a useful crime-fighting measure); (2) paying negative interest on currency by taxing currency; and (3) decoupling the numéraire from the currency/medium of exchange/means of payment and introducing an exchange rate between the numéraire and the currency; this exchange rate can be set over time to achieve a forward discount (expected depreciation) of the currency vis-à-vis the numéraire when the nominal interest rate in terms of the numéraire is set at a negative level for monetary policy purposes.     

Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks*

This paper presents a new empirical approach to address the problem of trading time differences between markets in studies of financial contagion. In contrast to end‐of‐business‐day data common to most contagion studies, we employ price observations, which are exactly aligned in time to correct for time‐zone and end‐of‐business‐day differences between markets. Additionally, we allow for time lags between price observations in order to test the assumption that the shock is not immediately transmitted from one market to the other. Our analysis of the financial turmoil surrounding the Asian crisis reveals that such corrections have an important bearing on the evidence for contagion, independent of the methodology employed. Using a correlation‐based test, we find more contagion the faster we assume the shock to be transmitted.     

Meaningful Measures: Indicators on Progress, Progress on Indicators

This article reviews the international debate on statistical indicators. It describes historical backgrounds, as well as the present chaotic situation. It discusses what statistical indicators are and what they are for, as well as criteria for the choice of indicators, designed to monitor the achievement of economic, social, demographic, environmental and other goals set by United Nations conferences. Some suggestions for future work are made.     

A portfolio approach to a cross-sectoral and cross-national investment strategy in transition economies

This paper takes a systematic look at the portfolio choice problem faced by Investment Banks or Funds investing in transition economies. We relate the performance of projects in the transition economies to the broader macroeconomic and international environments, which affect the project through their input-output structures and financial balance sheets. Among the macroeconomic determinanst of enterprise behaviour are productivity growth, real wage growth, movements in the international terms of trade, shocks to the relative price of traded and non-traded goods, domestic and foreign interest rates, currency depreciation and the rate of inflaction. We evaluate the attractiveness of alternative investment strategies and provisioning rules from the perspective of portfoio theory.     

Time dependency of trade union membership

Event-history analysis is used to model the time dependency of two decisions: the decision to join a trade union, and the decision to leave a trade union. We formulate two hypotheses with regard to these two decisions and parametric regression models are used to investigate these hypotheses. The process of joining a trade union can be described by a decreasing rate, using a Weibull. For the process of leaving a trade union, we suggest an increasing rate that decreases after several years, a process best described by a log-logistic model.     

Credit Constraints in Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa

We investigate the question of whether firms in Africa's manufacturingsector are credit constrained. The fact that few firms obtaincredit is not sufficient to prove constraints, since certainfirms may not have a demand for credit while others may be refusedcredit as part of profit maximising behaviour by banks. To investigatethis question, we use direct evidence on whether firms had ademand of credit and whether their demand was satisfied in theformal credit market, based on panel data on firms in the manufacturingsector from six African countries. Of those firms with a demandfor credit, only a quarter obtained a formal sector loan. Ouranalysis suggests that while banks allocate credit on the basisof expected profits, micro or small firms are much less likelyto get a loan than large firms. We also find that outstandingdebt is positively related with obtaining further lending. Therole of outstanding debt is likely to be a reflection of inefficiencyin credit markets, while the fact that size matters is consistentwith a bias as well, although we cannot totally exclude thatthey reflect transactions costs on the part of banks. We presentan analysis showing how much more profitable small firms mustbe to obtain a loan than large firms.