Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

Dialogism in Corporate Social Responsibility Communications: Conceptualising Verbal Interaction Between Organisations and Their Audiences

We conceptualise CSR communication as a process of reciprocal influence between organisations and their audiences. We use an illustrative case study in the form of a conflict between firms and a powerful stakeholder which is played out in a series of 20 press releases over a 2-month period to develop a framework of analysis based on insights from linguistics. It focuses on three aspects of dialogism, namely (i) turn-taking (co-operating in a conversation by responding to the other party), (ii) inter-party moves (the nature and type of interaction characterising a turn, i.e. denial, apology or excuse) and (iii) intertextuality (the intensity and quality of verbal interaction between the parties). We address the question: What is the nature and type of verbal interactions between the parties? First we examine (a) whether the parties verbally interact and then (b) whether the parties listen to each other. We find evidence of dialogism suggesting that CSR communication is an interactive process which has to be understood as a function of the power relations between a firm and a specific stakeholder. Also, we find evidence of intertextuality in press releases by six firms which engage in verbal interaction with the stakeholder. We interpret this as linguistic evidence of isomorphic processes relating to CSR practices resulting from the pressure exerted by a powerful stakeholder. The lack of response by ten firms that fail to issue press releases suggests a strategy of ‘watch-and-wait’ with respect to the outcome of the conflict.     

Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors’ attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products.     

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Nordic Countries

In an attempt to move beyond the purchasing power parity hypothesis, this paper addresses two issues. The first concerns the causes of movements in real exchange rates. In contrast to the typical result, supply shocks are found to dominate the long-run variance decompositions for each of the four Nordic countries under study. This suggests that productivity developments are the most important determinant of long-run movements in real exchange rates. A second topic is the relative importance of stationary and non-stationary components of real exchange rates. Also in contrast to previous findings, transitory shocks are more important than permanent shocks for three of the four countries.     

The impact of electronic technology upon the marketing channel

Teleshopping and other forms of electronic retailing promise to have tremendous impact upon the field of retailing. With respect to the impact of this emerging technology upon the channel structure it would seem that the channel members are “retreating” relative to the channel positions. That is, consumers have retreated to the retailer level where they have assumed many of the retailer functions; retailers have moved back to the wholesaler or supplier level; distributors have assumed some of the manufacturer initiative with respect to produc specification and design; and manufactures have retreated to the subcontractor or component supplier level.     

Travel patterns and environmental effects now and in the future:: implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economic groups

Travel patterns among different socio-economic groups in Sweden are investigated. It is shown that elderly persons, persons with low incomes and women in general do not travel extensively. Middle-aged persons, persons with high incomes and men travel much farther. Cars are the dominant transportation mode for all population groups. Aeroplanes are used mostly by high-income earners and men, while public transportation is mostly used by young people and women. Energy consumption for the different travel patterns differs substantially. Men with high incomes consume the most energy, with 94 000 MJ during one year, while elderly women consume 12 000 MJ. When compared to a calculated sustainable level of energy consumption for travel, most population groups are in excess. The level for sustainable energy consumption is calculated based on an assumed global potential for renewable energy of 360 EJ per year, divided equally among the global population. A certain share of this energy potential is supposed to be used for travelling. A scenario for 2020 is presented in which vehicle energy efficiency has increased and travel patterns have changed from what they are today. Sustainability can only be reached when both travel patterns and vehicle technology have changed radically. Differences in energy consumption for travel due to age and gender are likely to remain in the future. Scientific knowledge from the social domains seems to be important for devising efficient strategies for a sustainable society. Current focus on policy measures has been mainly on technical issues.     

The Swedish Experience with Pension Reform

Sweden is one of few countries in Europe to have introduceda comprehensive pension reform. In 1998, Sweden passed legislationthat transformed its public pension system to a notional defined-contribution(NDC) plan— that is, a defined-contribution plan financedon a pay-as-you-go basis. In addition, a second tier of fundedindividual accounts was introduced. The reform had broad politicalsupport with more than 80 per cent of the votes in parliament.This paper discusses the trends in retirement in Sweden andassesses the experience with pension reform. The objective wasto design a fiscally sustainable system tied to economic growthwith a clear link between contributions and benefits. We discussthe challenges in meeting this goal, the extent to which theSwedish reform has succeeded, and how the system affects beneficiaries.The paper evaluates the experience of the individual fundedaccounts to date and concludes with an outlook for the future. Footnotes ¹ E-mail address: annika.sunden{at}sofi.su.se