The stock market’s reaction to macroeconomic news under ambiguity

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - We investigate the quality of the information that macroeconomic news conveys to the stock market about future business conditions. Our econometric...     

Productivity growth,Smith effects and Ricardo effects in Euro Area's manufacturing industries

We analyse the determinants of labour productivity across (a sample of) EA member states. We focus on the divergent dynamics before and after the financial crisis, and of core countries relative to peripheral countries. We ground our empirical analysis in Paolo Sylos-Labini's productivity equations. We test different models, including a Panel 2S-LS model and a Panel vector autoregression model. Our preliminary findings confirm and strengthen Sylos-Labini's main insights. Labour productivity in manufacturing industries is strongly and positively correlated with the market size (Smith effect), the relative cost of labour (Ricardo effect), the absolute cost of labour (organization effect) and past investment, whereas it is negatively correlated with current investment. Furthermore, we find evidence that the crisis has affected the size of these effects. Focusing on the core periphery dichotomy, the signs of the effects are the same for both groups of countries, although the Smith, Ricardo and long-run investment effects are usually stronger for core countries compared to peripheral countries. The opposite holds for the organization effect, while investment effects are less clear.     

The log-moment formula for implied volatility

We revisit the foundational Moment Formula proved by Roger Lee fifteen years ago. We show that in the absence of arbitrage, if the underlying stock price at time T admits finite log-moments $\mathbb{E}[|\log S_T{|}^q]$ for some positive q, the arbitrage-free growth in the left wing of the implied volatility smile for T is less constrained than Lee's bound. The result is rationalized by a market trading discretely monitored variance swaps wherein the payoff is a function of squared log-returns, and requires no assumption for the underlying price to admit any negative moment. In this respect, the result can be derived from a model-independent setup. As a byproduct, we relax the moment assumptions on the stock price to provide a new proof of the notorious Gatheral–Fukasawa formula expressing variance swaps in terms of the implied volatility.