Dynamic programming for valuing American options under a variance-gamma process

Lévy processes provide a solution to overcome the shortcomings of the lognormal hypothesis. A growing literature proposes the use of pure-jump Lévy processes, such as the variance-gamma (VG) model. In this setting, explicit solutions for derivative prices are unavailable, for instance, for the valuation of American options. We propose a dynamic programming approach coupled with finite elements for valuing American-style options under an extended VG model. Our numerical experiments confirm the convergence and show the efficiency of the proposed methodology. We also conduct a numerical investigation that focuses on American options on S&P 500 futures contracts.     

Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: evidence based on a new credibility index

This article investigates the relationship between central bank credibility and the volatility of the key monetary policy instrument. First, we propose a time-varying measure of central bank credibility based on the gap between inflation expectations and the official inflation target. While this new index addresses the main limitations of the existing indicators, it also appears particularly suited to assess the monetary experiences of a large sample of inflation-targeting emerging countries. Second, by means of EGARCH estimations, we formally prove the existence of a negative effect of credibility on the volatility of the short-term interest rate. In line with the expectations channel of monetary policy, the higher the credibility of the central bank, the lower the need to move its instruments to effectively fulfill its objective.     

Technological spillovers from multinational firms

This paper aims to identify genuine technological spillovers from multinational firms (MNEs). To this end, we use data on R&D from MNEs to measure spillovers, while most of the existing literature uses output to measure the foreign presence in an industry (what we call output-based spillovers). In line with the existing literature, we distinguish between horizontal spillovers (i.e., intra-industry linkages) and vertical spillovers (i.e., backward—or downstream—and forward—or upstream—inter-industry linkages). Our results show that the three types of technological spillovers from MNEs are positive, with the horizontal spillovers the larger ones, followed by backward spillovers. The effect of forward spillovers is much smaller in magnitude. Moreover, we find that not controlling for industry size (i.e., technological spillovers from all firms in an industry) leads to underestimating both horizontal and backward spillovers from MNEs, and to overestimating forward spillovers from MNEs. Finally, we find that the distinction between technological and output-based spillovers is of great relevance. The size of backward technological spillovers is approximately 44% of the size of output-based backward spillovers, while for horizontal spillovers both types of spillovers are quite similar. Importantly, output-based forward spillovers are negative while technological forward spillovers are positive.     

Road transport productivity in the sixteenth‐century Low Countries: the case of Brabant, 1450–1650†

Though there is a consensus that transport plays a central role in economic development, for the period before the eighteenth century there is a lack of strategic information for assessing the importance of road transport productivity changes in economic development. Transport prices in particular are crucial missing pieces of the puzzle. Sources rarely reveal information that meets the standards of reliable price history. However, it is possible to create a reliable transport price series on the basis of the transport of millstones to ducal mills in Brabant. Assessing the impact of the ‘transport productivity changes’ that can be inferred from this transport price series is a hazardous exercise. Moreover, as Masschaele has observed, land transport prices closely match general agricultural price trends. Land transport was essentially an agricultural service, determined both by cost (especially horse provender) and income effects. Transport price inflation was not demand‐led. However, while transport did not impede urbanization and economic growth, conversely, in sixteenth‐century Brabant—a highly urbanized region that experienced considerable growth in the volume of land transport—no significant land transport productivity gains were achieved.     

When consumers struggle: Action crisis and its effects on problematic goal pursuit

When pursuing goals, consumers often face setbacks that force them to reevaluate their goals. Yet, current goal theory offers limited explanations for how people respond to recurring challenges and disengage from their goals. Through five experiments investigating three primary theoretical aims, this research extends the field's understanding of action crisis, a possible goal pursuit stage marked by internal conflict over whether or not to continue, and investigates it in consumption contexts such as patient–physician relationships, weight loss diets, and environmentally friendly purchasing. Experiments 1A–1C show that consumer action crisis encourages more disengagement‐related and less continuation‐supportive cost–benefit thinking than nonproblematic action phase. Experiment 2 replicates this cognitive shift, and connects action crisis to diminished goal‐related evaluations and weakened commitment. Experiment 3 further clarifies action crisis’ influence on consumer goal pursuit by revealing decreased cognitive and behavioral engagement that does not involve a shift in construal level when compared to action phase consumers. Extending understanding of action crisis as a possible mindset and action phase, these five experiments advance goal disengagement theory by connecting changes in cognition, motivation, and behavior to action crisis.     

Does Rising Income Inequality Reduce Life Expectancy? New Evidence for 26 European Countries (1995–2014)

An open debate these days is about how national income inequality could affect individuals’ health outcomes. Therefore, the present study aims to provide new evidence regarding life expectancy determinants and how they are related to the income inequality hypothesis. Precisely, it is provided new evidence on this relationship for 26 European countries during the period 1995–2014. The analysis is based on panel data techniques, with the latest data from both Eurostat and the OECD Health Statistics. Furthermore, data from the World Bank is also applied. Besides, we have tested the sensitivity of the estimates in our empirical analysis using three clusters of countries. Our results suggest that income inequality does not significantly reduce health in developed societies, like the European ones. Notwithstanding, as income inequality can be sometimes harmful for population health, these issues must be taken into account in order to improve health care policies.     

Product-harm science communication: The halo effect and its moderators

Science communication on a product-harm situation aims to create awareness on the product's potential impacts for consumers. However, consumers tend to overestimate the information provided, due to possible halo effects. Here we designed a contextual model of halo development including individual and message characteristics detected in the literature as potential moderators. Our experimental study, based on a sample of 3,766 European respondents, evaluates these halo moderators in the context of a product-harm science communication. The results reveal a stronger halo effect on consumers' beliefs when the focal topic is considered as more important (health vs. ethics) and simultaneously when the source of information is more credible (official vs. non-official). Highly involved consumers are also subject to greater halo effects. Suggested implications mainly focus on the need to consider potential amplifying halo effects and on the importance of responding to a product-harm communication via a very accurate communication approach.     

Networks of foreign affiliates: Evidence from Japanese micro-data

The paper provides evidence of the investment patterns of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) across countries and industries and analyses the main drivers of their location strategies, using detailed micro-data on Japanese parents and their affiliates including the final destination of affiliate sales. The breakdown of affiliate sales by destination market reveals that Japanese MNEs establish services affiliates primarily to maximise proximity to local customers, while foreign affiliates in manufacturing sectors tend to engage more widely with third countries. Yet, some economies emerge as strategic gateways to other destinations in their region. The empirical analysis delves into the drivers of host country attractiveness for FDI seeking new markets, production efficiency and to act as regional or global platforms. Important factors shaping Japanese FDI decisions include trade and investment policies in goods and services, deep FTAs, as well as streamlined customs procedures. Furthermore, well-calibrated rules for digital commerce and investments in digital infrastructure and innovation contribute to attracting MNEs. Overall, the paper stresses the factors behind better integration into global production networks and the policy priorities to attract various types of FDI inflows.     

School completion in urban Latin America: the voices of young people from an informal settlement

Despite progress in improving secondary school completion in Latin America, a high proportion of young people from urban marginalised neighbourhoods continue to drop out. On the basis of in-depth interviews with young people in an informal settlement of the City of Buenos Aires, the paper aims to broaden the understanding of the processes that lead to school dropout in these neighbourhoods. It does so by examining what young people value being and doing, and how they interpret the value of secondary school in their own lives and contexts. The results point to the critical importance of the family in young peoples’ processes of reasoning and decision-making, the complex interaction between capabilities, and the benefits of schools that provide social and emotional support to students and families. The paper argues that listening to the voices of young people can give significant insights for the design of policies to close the gap in education outcomes in segregated urban contexts.     

Multivariate geometric expectiles

A generalization of expectiles for d-dimensional multivariate distribution functions is introduced. The resulting geometric expectiles are unique solutions to a convex risk minimization problem and are given by d-dimensional vectors. They are well behaved under common data transformations and the corresponding sample version is shown to be a consistent estimator. We exemplify their usage as risk measures in a number of multivariate settings, highlighting the influence of varying margins and dependence structures.