Dealing with demand forecasting games in transport privatization

Privatization has increased the number of players in the decision-making process for major transport investment decisions. The main argument of this paper is that this fragmentation is creating opportunities for strategic decision-making by each actor and that this is particularly obvious in the context of demand forecasting. This paper explores some of the specific causes and consequences of this new situation, including the perverse incentives, linked to the diversity of the objectives across the actors and to the risk allocation induced by the regulatory regime. It illustrates the issues and possible solutions from a wide range of modal and country experiences. In particular, it discusses the role of the newly independent sector regulators in reconciling these diverse goals and their limitations in view of the major information asymmetries problems they face.     

Input Chains and Industrialization

A key aspect of industrialization is the adoption of increasing-returns-to-scale, industrial , technologies. Two other well-documented aspects are that industrial technologies (ITs) are adopted throughout intermediate-input chains and that they use intermediate inputs intensively relative to the technologies they replace. These features of ITs combined imply that countries with access to similar technologies may have very different levels of industrialization and aggregate income, even if the degree of increasing returns to scale at the firm level is relatively small. Furthermore, a minor improvement in the productivity of ITs can trigger full-scale industrialization and a large increase in aggregate income.     

Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700?km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.     

Vocational skills in the accounting professional profile: the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) employers' opinion

The increasingly dynamic environment in which accountants work has necessitated a reorientation of accounting education. In some countries this issue has raised great interest amongst accounting educators and practitioners. The ongoing debate has already resulted in the publication of several statements and research papers that have raised the question of the relevance of the role of vocational skills in accounting education. Examples of these vocational skills are communication skills, interpersonal skills, and problem-solving skills. This paper reports on the importance that the employers of management accountants gave to a specified set of vocational skills and capabilities and the level of ability of these skills exhibited by students. In order to prioritize future developments an integrated analysis of the two attributes, importance and exhibited level, is enabled by the use of strategic mapping. The results of this study suggest that the employers perceive deficiencies in several capabilities that they have identified as being quite important. These deficiencies exist, in the employers' opinion, both prior to recruitment and on professional qualification. The research also indicates that, in the opinion of these employers, the development of these skills should be a central concern for universities and professional bodies. The employers also indicated that vocational skills should be attained in an integrated way.     

PFIs involving multiple public partners: a case study from the Italian healthcare sector

The financial crisis experienced by many countries since 2008 has given new importance to private finance initiatives (PFIs) for providing public services. This paper analyses the relationships between multiple public and private sector actors participating in a PFI in the healthcare sector in order to better understand the motives and behaviour of public and private sector partners. High levels of trust and the active participation of a regulatory body were found to be significant factors in terms of creating a partnership that benefits all sides.     

Contemporaneous ADR pricing: intraday dynamics during overlapping trading hours

We contribute to the literature by identifying and accurately measuring the drivers of American depositary receipt (ADR) returns contemporaneously across various global time zones. We consider ADRs as two inherently distinct asset classes – stocks and currencies – bundled into one. Throughout, we use a relatively refined, focused, and synchronized minute-by-minute data set on ADRs and all other variables. ADRs from all countries with regular trading hours that overlap with those of the US are considered individually and in clusters. We analyze the interplay of several factors that influence ADRs pricing patterns. Further, we investigate whether such patterns vary by currency, ADR, industry, and emerging/developed market classifications. Our findings indicate that synchronized returns on underlying shares comprise 68.5–74% of the explained returns in ADRs. The remaining 31.5–26% of returns are generated by movements in currency rates. These results are robust across the several models and estimation methods employed. Our findings also show persistent small price discrepancies between ADRs and dollar-adjusted underlying shares on a minute-by-minute basis, implying possible arbitrage opportunities. However, we conclude that trading and ADR conversion costs render such opportunities unattractive.     

Organizational structure and earnings quality of private and public firms

Review of Accounting Studies - We examine how heterogeneity in organizational structure affects private firm earnings quality in the European Union. Organizational structure refers to whether the...     

VALUING REAL OPTIONS: CAN RISK‐ADJUSTED DISCOUNTING BE MADE TO WORK?

This paper examines three alternative approaches to valuing real options: (1) the standard option pricing technique using "risk-neutral" probabilities; (2) the use of risk-adjusted discount rates; and (3) discounting certainty-equivalent values with a riskless discount rate. As suggested by the title, a question of particular interest is whether an approach based on risk-adjusted discount rates can be "made to work" for valuing options. The answer is yes. Indeed, the authors show that any of the three approaches will provide a correct valuation if properly employed.
Nevertheless, there are important differences in the information requirements associated with each of the three methods. Another important issue is the relative degree of difficulty in calculating the correct option value. When these two considerations are taken into account, the risk-neutral option pricing procedure generally proves to be the preferred method. It tends to be computationally more convenient—often much more convenient—and to require less information than either the risk-adjusted discounting or certainty-equivalent procedures.     

A theory of socialistic internal capital markets

We develop a model of a two-division firm in which the “strong” division has, on average, higher quality investment opportunities than the “weak” division. We show that, in the presence of agency and information problems, optimal effort incentives are less powerful and thus managerial effort is lower in the strong division. This leads the firm to bias its project selection policy against the strong division. The selection bias is more severe when there is a larger spread in the average quality of investment opportunities between the two divisions.