If at First You Don't Succeed…: Profits,Prices, and Market Structure in a Model of Quality with Unknowable Consumer Heterogeneity*

Why are higher quality niches seen as intrinsically more profitable in business circles? Why do high quality products sometimes have a low real price, whereas it is unusual to see low quality products with high real prices? Can markets have quality differentiation as well as quality bunching? How does the rate at which fixed costs change with quality affect market structure? In this article we develop a new model of quality that casts light on such issues.     

Unbalanced growth

Abstract.  We study a model designed to understand the concept of unbalanced growth. We define leading sectors to be those that raise the profits from industrialization for other sectors the most. We identify the leading sectors and show that subsidizing them in sequence will raise welfare if the future is not discounted too strongly.     

Strategies that fit emerging markets

It's no easy task to identify strategies for entering new international markets or to decide which countries to do business with. Many firms simply go with what they know-and fall far short of their goals. Part of the problem is that emerging markets have "institutional voids": They lack specialized intermediaries, regulatory systems, and contract-enforcing methods. These gaps have made it difficult for multinationals to succeed in developing nations; thus, many companies have resisted investing there. That may be a mistake. If Western companies don't come up with good strategies for engaging with emerging markets, they are unlikely to remain competitive. Many firms choose their markets and strategies for the wrong reasons, relying on everything from senior managers' gut feelings to the behaviors of rivals. Corporations also depend on composite indexes for help making decisions. But these analyses can be misleading; they don't account for vital information about the soft infrastructures in developing nations. A better approach is to understand institutional variations between countries. The best way to do this, the authors have found, is by using the five contexts framework. The five contexts are a country's political and social systems, its degree of openness, its product markets, its labor markets, and its capital markets. By asking a series of questions that pertain to each ofthe five areas, executives can map the institutional contexts of any nation. When companies match their strategies to each country's contexts, they can take advantage of a location's unique strengths. But first firms should weigh the benefits against the costs. If they find that the risks of adaptation are too great, they should try to change the contexts in which they operate or simply stay away.     

增长与分配的非正统模型: 对公司高管与金融资本家的分析

有关收入分配与经济增长的非正统模型一般只考虑工人与资本家这两个阶级,但是近期围绕不平等问题的讨论开始关注由工资不平等和高收入人群财富增加所带来的收入分配变化。为了分析这些因素,本文建立了两个分别遵循古典—马克思主义和后凯恩斯—卡莱斯基主义的简单模型,讨论存在这样两类人时——一类是拥有资本的生产工人,另一类是公司高管、金融资本家和传统意义上的资本家——的收入分配的变化由哪些因素决定,又会对经济增长产生什么影响。     

Var and Impulse-Response: A Note

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

Analysts' Forecasts of German Firms' Earnings: a Comparative Analysis

This paper examines analysts' forecasts of the annual earnings per share of German firms over the period of February 1987 to December 1995. The German case is particularly interesting as the accounting and institutional structures vary from those in more thoroughly researched markets such as the U.S. or U.K. The paper therefore considers the features of the German forecasting environment which distinguish it from the Anglo-American model, and whether these might be reflected in forecasting performance. The results for Germany show that the accuracy of analysts' forecasts improves as the forecast horizon shortens, are less accurate than a naive prediction model over longer horizons, and contain a positive bias. When the results for Germany are contrasted with the results for the U.K., as reported in a recent paper, they are found to be a little less accurate but the positive bias is greater in U.K. forecasts. Taken overall the forecasting process in Germany appears to be less efficient than in the U.K., but this may be due to the distinct features of the German forecasting environment.     

Beta adjustment methods

This study is an analysis of the forecasting ability of adjusted and unadjusted betas. Based on the Canadian data for 252 stocks, random errors in betas are the most important reason for the poor predictive ability of individual security betas. Most of this random error is eliminated if securities are grouped into portfolios. However, further improvements in forecasting ability are gained by adjusting the security betas for bias and inefficiency. Five methods of adjusting the naive beta estimates have been tried, including two methods not tested before. These two, Vasicek's two-stage method and order-bias adjustment method, gave results generally superior to others.     

Impact of cooperative membership on market performance of Nepali goat farmers

In developing countries, agricultural cooperatives are increasingly used by farmers as a mechanism to gain market power in input and output markets. To assess the impact of cooperative membership on market channel selection and pricing outcomes, we conducted a survey of 661 Nepali goat farmers in 2019–20 and applied an endogenous switching probit model to analyze the data. Our findings indicate that cooperative membership had a significant and positive influence on farmers choosing cooperatives as their market channel. Additionally, farmers who sold their goats through cooperatives received significantly higher prices than those who sold through local markets or to goat collectors. We also observed that farmers who had access to price information were able to obtain better prices for their goats. Overall, our study highlights the potential benefits of promoting cooperative membership and marketing through cooperatives, as these efforts can help farmers improve the returns on their agricultural investments.     

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.