Fiscal federalism in rentier regions: Evidence from Russia

When does sub-national fiscal autonomy prompt regional growth and recovery and, under what conditions, does it have adverse effects? We argue that unearned income streams, particularly in the form of revenues from natural resource production or from budgetary transfers from the central government, transform regions dependent on these income sources into rentier regions. Governments in these regions can use local control over revenues and expenditures to shelter certain firms, i.e., natural resource producers or loss-making enterprises, from market forces. Using fiscal data from 80 Russian regions from 1996 to 1999, we test this hypothesis in both cross-sectional and panel specifications. Our results indicate that tax retention, which is a proxy for fiscal autonomy, has had a positive effect on regional reform and investment since the break-up of the Soviet Union. However, we also find that this effect decreases as rentable income streams to regions increase. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 814–834.     

High Capital Mobility and Precautionary Demand for International Reserves

The volatility of reserve increment and the opportunity cost of holding reserves play prime role in models of optimal demand for foreign reserves. Most empirical studies find significant rise in the response of reserve demand to volatility during the era of high capital mobility. In contrast, we find that volatility measured as rolling standard deviation of reserve increment provides upwardly biased estimates whereas conditional volatility derived from GARCH models eliminates such bias and provides elasticity estimate closer to the prediction of buffer stock model (0.5). Though the time varying elasticity estimates derived from Kaiman filter exhibit a sharp rise during crises period, it does not exceed theoretical prediction. The RBI’s intervention policy seems to be asymmetric; leaning with wind when rupee depreciates and leaning against wind when rupee appreciates. This evidence seems to indicate that the policy of exchange rate stability had an in-built objective of providing a competitive edge to exporters.

     

Evolution of harvesting strategies: replicator and resource dynamics

Abstract. Economic theories of managing renewable resources, such as fisheries and forestry, traditionally assume that individual harvesters are perfectly rational and thus able to compute the harvesting strategy that maximizes their discounted profits. The current paper presents an alternative approach based on bounded rationality and evolutionary mechanisms. It is assumed that individual harvesters face a choice between two harvesting strategies. The evolution of the distribution of strategies in the population is modeled through a replicator dynamics equation. The latter captures the idea that strategies yielding above average profits are demanded more than strategies yielding below average profits, so that the first type ends up accounting for a larger part in the population. From a mathematical perspective, the combination of resource and evolutionary processes leads to complex dynamics. The paper presents the existence and stability conditions for each steady-state of the system and analyzes dynamic paths to the equilibrium. In addition, effects of changes in prices are analyzed. A main result of the paper is that under certain conditions both strategies can survive in the long-run. Correspondence to: J. Noailly     

Adoption of improved irrigation and drainage reduction technologies under limiting environmental conditions

Modern irrigation technologies have been suggested as a means of conserving scarce water and reducing environmental pollution caused by irrigated agriculture. This paper applies an economic model of technology selection that provides a general framework to analyzing adoption of irrigation technologies under various environmental conditions. Data from the San Joaquin Valley of California is used to verify the theoretical relationships. Results suggest key variables to be considered by policy makers concerned with adoption of modern irrigation technologies. Among these variables are crop prices, water technology costs, farm organization characteristics, and the environmental conditions of the farm or the field. Policy implications were discussed and analyzed.This research was conducted while the first author was a visiting scholar with the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Davis, and USDA-ERS, USA.     

An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions

This paper shows how the interaction between decentralized information gathering and discreteness of investment decisions at the individual level can generate random fluctuations in aggregate investment that involve occasionally large allocation errors. This interaction is illustrated in a model in which private information is costly to acquire and prices reveal information. The unique rational expectations equilibrium outcome of the model is shown to always be noisy and characterized by investment levels which may be high simply because uninformed investors are buying under the impression that the high price is a signal of good investment opportunities.     

The educational attainment of immigrants: trends and implications

"This paper uses the 1970, 1980, and 1990 U.S. Censuses to study trends in educational attainment of immigrants relative to natives. Immigrants have become relatively less highly educated, but have become more highly educated in an absolute sense. The effects of changes in relative educational attainment between immigrants and natives on earnings are studied. Educational differences are found to explain more than half the observed wage gap between the two groups. The paper also allows for non-linearities in returns to education. Sheepskin effects influence earnings in different ways for natives and immigrants. Differences in returns to pre- and post-migration education also appear. The paper also finds evidence that immigrants crowd natives out of education, although the effects are stronger in secondary than in postsecondary education."     

Shadow pricing of labour and capital in an economy with unemployed labour

This paper derives the shadow prices of labour and capital to be used in the public sector in a situation of unemployment. The setting considered is that of a three-good, two-period general equilibrium model. Then shadow prices are compared to their corresponding market prices and shown to closely depend on own and cross-elasticities of supply and demand for labour and investment. In the first part, a rigid wage rate is the sole source of distortion; then, a tax on capital income is introduced so that our formula for the social rate of discount can be contrasted with that of Harberger, Sandmo and Drèze.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE INTER-INDUSTRY PATTERN OF DIVERSIFICATION BY U.K. MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES*

Evidence of the diversity of output of larger U.K. manufacturing enterprises’in 1958, 1963 and 1968 is provided in the Reports on the Census of Production. The Censuses show that between 1958 and 1968 diversification was a significant and general trend in manufacturing industries and an important element in the growth of firms during the period. Moreover diversification seems to be part of a longer term trend in U.K. industry and part of the typical development pattern of the large firm. A theory of the firm's diversification decision is proposed and from this theory predictions are made of the structural features both of a firm's primary industry and of outside industries which are likely to encourage diversification from the one industry to the other. The power of the model in explaining the pattern of diversification between SIC manufacturing orders in the period 1963–68 is weak, due in part to the wide variety of factors influencing diversification and to the aggregated form of the data. Nevertheless, the results show the importance of research and development effort in encouraging diversification and the stimulus to diversification given by profitability and risk in firms’primary industries and high rates of output growth in outside industries. While the findings offer no clear conclusions regarding the impact of diversification upon economic performance, the results are consistent with the propositions that (i) diversification encourages technical progress in industry and (ii) diversification increases the efficiency with which resources are allocated between industries.