Alfred D. Chandler, Jr. Shaping the Industrial Century: The Remarkable Story of the Evolution of the Modern Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industries. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2005. ix + 366 pp. ISBN 0-674-01720-x, $29.95 (Hardcover).

This book is a companion to Alfred Chandler’s previousbook, Inventing the Electronic Century, and provides a broadhistory of the chemical and pharmaceutical industries roughlyfrom the end of the nineteenth century to the end of the twentiethcentury. The history of the chemical and pharmaceutical industriesis remarkable because they are old industries, emerging after1880, and because a small number of companies quickly dominatedthem and have continued to do     

Endogenous Comparative Advantages in Developing Economies

This paper focusses on endogenous comparative advantages in developing countries, in particular on labour reallocation from low-productivity informal sectors into high-productivity formal sectors. This mechanism is important for two reasons. First, it contributes to the growth potential of developing countries and the absorption capacity for further capital accumulation. Second, labour reallocation will keep developing economies specialized in low-skilled intensive products in the coming decades and it will keep the wages of low-skilled workers low. We analyse this mechanism by simulating an increase in the skill intensity of developing countries the coming decades. These simulations are carried out with WorldScan, a dynamic AGE model of the world economy. An increasing skill intensity in LDCs will stimulate the global supply of high-skilled intensive products more than the supply of low-skilled intensive products, but to a much lesser extent than one would expect in static analyses or in absence of informal sectors.     

Comparing econometric methods to empirically evaluate activation programs for job seekers

We test whether different identification strategies give similar results when evaluating activation programs. Budgetary problems at the Dutch unemployment insurance (UI) administration in March 2010 caused a sharp drop in the availability of these programs. Using administrative data provided by the UI administration, we evaluate the effect of the program (1) exploiting the policy discontinuity as a quasi-experiment, (2) using dynamic matching assuming conditional independence, and (3) applying the timing-of-events model. All three strategies use the same data to consider the same program in the same setting, and show that the program reduces job finding directly after enrollment. However, the magnitude of the estimated drop in job finding differs between the three estimation methods. In the longer run, all three methods show a zero effect on employment.     

From boom ‘til bust: How loss aversion affects asset prices

This article studies the impact of heterogeneous loss averse investors on asset prices. In very good states loss averse investors become gradually less risk averse as wealth rises above their reference point, pushing up equity prices. When wealth drops below the reference point the investors become risk seeking and demand for stocks increases drastically, eventually leading to a forced sell-off and stock market bust in bad states. Heterogeneity in reference points and initial wealth of the loss averse investors does not change the salient features of the equilibrium price process, such as a relatively high equity premium, high volatility and counter-cyclical changes in the equity premium.     

Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements

We analyse agreements on river water allocation between riparian countries. Besides being efficient, water allocation agreements need to be stable in order to be effective in increasing the efficiency of water use. In this paper we assess the stability of water allocation agreements using a game theoretic model. We consider the effects of climate change and the choice of a sharing rule on stability. Our results show that a decrease in mean river flow decreases the stability of an agreement, while an increased variance can have a positive or a negative effect on stability. An agreement where the downstream country is allocated a fixed amount of water has the lowest stability compared to other sharing rules. These results hold for both constant and flexible non-water transfers.     

Transformations in- and outside the internal labour market: institutional change and continuity in Japanese employment practices

The weak performance of the Japanese economy since the 1990s has renewed the debate on the efficiency of its employment practices. Although actual changes have long trailed expectations, two major developments have taken place in recent years: a rise in non-regular employment and the introduction of performance-related pay (seikashugi). Both affect the internal labour market that has been crucial to human resource management in Japan. The first development diminishes its relevance and the second directly impacts its functioning. This paper discusses these changes and the factors that determine their character. Moreover, it argues that the changes are not just aligned with but also made possible by an important continuity in the support for the core practice of lifetime employment. What results is a story of institutional change and continuity which argues that the specific character of Japanese employment practices remains in spite of an apparent convergence.     

The Trojan-Horse Principle in Development Assistance: A Reading of Uganda's Experience with Aid

The World Bank recommends “ideas, not money” as a guiding principle to donors for dealing with badly governed countries. This paper challenges that principle on the basis of a study of the evolution in Uganda of pro‐growth policies in the early to mid 1990s and pro‐poor policies in the late 1990s. The analysis of Uganda’s experience with aid is accommodated within the theoretical framework of a principal–agent conditionality game, in which policy objectives of the recipient (the agent) evolve over time. The key finding of the paper is that the apparent conditionality failure of the period 1987–91 has paved the way for later reform. Financial aid given during this period suspended the necessity of reforms and bought donor proximity to recipient policy deliberations, as a result of both of which the policy learning could take place that led to later successful reform measures.     

What Makes Older Job-Seekers Attractive to Employers?

Using a conjoint analysis with an hypothetical hiring process, in which managers chose repeatedly between two hypothetical candidates for a relevant vacancy, our study confirms that hiring probabilities decline with age, particularly after the age of 58. Several theoretical arguments are given for this, both from the economic and psychological literature. Estimation results point at three important mechanisms that may explain declining hiring probabilities with age: (1) Uncertainty about productivity levels of older job-seekers may cause risk averse employers to chose younger job-seekers with lower, but more certain productivity levels. All factors and policy measures that are informative about productivity levels and reduce uncertainty for employers, also increase the average hiring probability for older job-seekers. (2) Increasing labour costs compared to steady or declining productivity levels of older workers. Some of these costs are determined on a national level, but many are negotiated between employers and employees in central bargaining agreements. Employers themselves therefore have an important key to increase the attractiveness of older job-seekers. (3) Older managers hire more older job-seekers, the same is true for employers with an older workforce. It means that in an ageing society, the hiring probability of older job-seekers will increase, even if no additional policy measures are taken. The effect of this ageing is stronger than any of the policy measures analysed in our study.