Note on a new method of construction of mortality tables when the number of lives exposed to risk is unknown

Abstract

It has been known for some time that the d^bx column in a mortality table can be considered as a compound frequency curve with a limited number of maxima and minima. From a theoretical point of view this is of course a self evident conclusion which follows directly from the so-called genetic theory of frequency originally introduced by Laplace. He showed that any frequency distribution can be considered or generated as the sum of a very large number of elementary errors, referrable to several sources of error, each group or error having its own peculiar law of error. While the pure theory of the generation of frequency curves from such secondary sources of elementary errors is simple enough, the inverse and essentially practical problem of decomposing a compound frequency curve into its component or constituent elements is by no means simple and often presents great difficulties, especially if certain restrictions are imposed upon the component curves. An example of such restrictions would be the requirement that all the component curves should be normal Laplacean probability curves.     

The Fear of Exclusion: Individual Effort when Group Formation is Endogenous*

To secure their membership in a popular group, individuals may contribute more to the group's local public good than they would if group formation were exogenous. Those in the most unpopular group do not have this incentive to contribute. This may result in substantial differences in individual effort level between groups. Our model thus provides one explanation for the existence of group‐specific behavioral norms. A principal will prefer exogenous or endogenous group formation depending on whether he prefers high or low levels of the local public good. We analyze two stylized examples: social interaction in schools, and multiple‐task teamwork.     

Attracting responsible employees: Green production as labor market screening

Corporate social responsibility can improve firms’ ability to recruit highly motivated employees. This can secure socially responsible firms’ survival even in a highly competitive environment. We show that if both socially responsible (green) and non-responsible (brown) firms exist in equilibrium, workers with high moral motivation, who shirk less than others, will self-select into the green firms. If unobservable effort is sufficiently important for firm productivity, this can drive every brown firm out of business—even in the case where many workers have no moral motivation whatsoever.     

The distinction between commercial and non-commercial bus services in Germany: Given by nature?

German public transport services by bus are characterized by a regulatory framework that distinguishes between commercial and non-commercial services. Contrary to the apparent views of legislators, this paper shows that costs and revenues are not the only parameters determining whether or not operators are able to provide services in a commercially viable way.Apart from the local characteristics of the specific service, we show that the classification of services as commercial versus non-commercial is determined in large part by the public transport authorities that set minimum quality standards to be provided by operators. Our analysis shows that the authorities awarding the contracts in some cases affect market organization significantly depending on how they make use of this power. Furthermore, market organization differs substantially with respect to the awarding structure and the contractual relationships, thus creating a challenge for operators and authorities in an embryonic market.     

ANFA — National Money Creation as an Existential Threat to the Currency Union?

The recent publication of the previously secret Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA) directed the public’s attention to the possibility that national central banks could create money through purchases of securities on their own account. This paper provides an overview of the legal foundations for ANFA and shows the varying extent to which the member countries use these regulations. What are the interests, risks and consequences for the countries in crisis and the currency union as a whole? Is the ECB properly monitoring ANFA purchases? Could money creation via ANFA act as an explosive device for the currency union?     

Tensions between the Prescriptive and Descriptive Ethics of Psychologists

Ethical guidelines for psychologists are meant to stimulate and help psychologists to act appropriately with respect to clients, colleagues, and other individuals involved in their professional relations. This paper focuses on the similarity of codes of ethics of psychologists in European countries in general, and on specific ethical dilemmas in the area of work and organizations in particular. First, an overview is given of the development of ethical guidelines in Europe and the USA. Second, the results are presented of a survey by E-mail amongst members of the European Federation of Psychologists’ Associations (EFPA) to identify the differences and similarities between ethical guidelines of the affiliate members. Third, the potential dilemmas of stakeholders in work and organizational assessment are addressed. Finally, the results of a survey among Dutch selection psychologists are presented. The purpose of this study was to examine a possible tension between normative behavior and attitudes about normal behavior. It was concluded that ethical guidelines of European countries cover comparable (sub-)principles and that there are indications that individual psychologists agree with the written principles. In addition, suggestions for future research are given. Olga Voskuijl is Assistant Professor in Work and Organizational Psychology at the University of Amsterdam. Her research interests include codes of ethics, ethical dilemas in psychology, personnel selection; theory, and measurement of job performance; job analysis; measurement and analysis, of ability, personality, and vocational development. She has published on these topics in journals such as International Journal of Selection and Assessment, International Journal of Human Resource Management and European Journal of Psychological Assessment. Arne Evers is Associate Professor in Work and Organizational Psychology at the University of Amsterdam. His research interests include personnel selection, discrimination in selection, test and scale construction, organizational diagnosis and work stress. His publications have appeared in such journals as Journal of Organizational Behavior, European Journal of Psychological Assessment, and Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology. Arne is a member of the Committee on Testing of the Dutch Association of Psychologists (COTAN) and of the standing Committee on Tests and Testing of the European Federation of Psychological Associations (EFPA).     

Debt Relief as a Last Resort for the Lender of Last Resort?

The coronavirus crisis has led to a sharp increase in the debt-to-GDP ratios of the euro area member states. Without external support, access to the capital market could be seriously threatened in the medium term for Italy, but also for other member states. While the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, which is designed as a monetary policy instrument, is regarded by some as a violation of the prohibition of monetary financing, the Next Generation EU recovery fund is likely to direct the fundamental structures of the European Union towards a fiscal union with considerable redistribution elements. This article analyses an alternative strategy, namely debt relief by the European System of Central Banks through an EU debt agency. Such a scheme would be possible without amending the EU treaties and would avoid negative equity at the central banks. The question is under what circumstances would this approach be suitable and proportionate?

     

Finanzielle Repression — ein Instrument zur Bewältigung der Krisenfolgen?

Financial repression committed by central banks has been put forward as a means to secretly reduce the real burden of high public debts. Financial repression has allegedly played an important role in the impressive reduction of the US debt ratio after World War II. A mix of conventional budget consolidation and rapid growth was the main driver in this relative debt reduction with a minor role for financial repression. But does financial repression really exist? The authors express different opinions on evidence for this concept. Those authors who find that there are indicators of financial repression fear redistributive tendencies between debtors and creditors and high opportunity costs in the form of savings and investment distortions. Therefore, financial repression is not a “cure” for the high public debts amassed in the euro area during the recent sovereign debt and banking crisis. Furthermore, the high sovereign debts in the euro area may threaten economic development and impose high costs on society. Therefore, reducing these debts is politically highly relevant, and fiscal policy should be characterised by a modest reduction in government spending and/or tax increases, combined with a policy promoting economic growth. Macroprudential regulations should supplement this financial policy.     

Market Constellations and Macroeconomic Policymaking: Institutional Impacts on Economic Performance

The following article presents a broad outline of a market participation theory of economic policy and attempts to determine how macroeconomic demand management can be used to influence market constellations. On that basis it then inquires into how far macroeconomic governance can be used to explain the different growth and employment performances of selected EU countries.

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The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Hans B?ckler foundation. This paper is part of a larger project on “Employment systems in international comparison”. The author’s thanks also go to Andrew Watt, Hansj?rg Herr and Carol Hogg for fruitful comments. However, the usual caveats apply.     

Customer segmentation using unobserved heterogeneity in the perceived-value–loyalty–intentions link

Multiple facets of perceived value perceptions drive loyalty intentions. However, this value–loyalty link is not uniform for all customers. In fact, the present study identifies three different segments that are internally consistent and stable across different service industries, using two data sets: the wireless telecommunication industry (sample size 1122) and the financial services industry (sample size 982). Comparing the results of a single-class solution with finite mixture results confirms the existence of unobserved customer segments. The three established segments are “rationalists”, “functionalists” and “value maximizers”. These results point the way for value-based segmentation in loyalty initiatives and reflect the importance of a multidimensional conceptualization of perceived value, comprising cognitive and affective components. The present results substantiate the fact that assuming a homogeneous value–loyalty link provides a misleading view of the market. The paper derives implications for marketing research and practice in terms of segmentation, positioning, loyalty programs and strategic alliances.