Forecasting volatility in the Indian equity market using return and range-based models

In this article, we assess the time-varying volatility of the National Stock Exchange in the Indian equity market using unconditional estimators and asymmetric conditional econometric models. The volatility estimate and forecast is computed from the interday return and intraday range-based data of the exchange’s flagship index, CNX NIFTY, for the time period spanning 1 January 2009 through 31 December 2013. These are our findings: First, we determine that the time-varying volatility of the index is asymmetric with qualities of stationarity and leptokurtic distribution. Second, the one-step-ahead volatility forecast derived from the univariate time series parameters through the GJR-GARCH ?????process indicates that the model evaluation criteria of the autoregressive process tends towards range-based models vis-à-vis a return-based model. The validity of this methodology is further analysed with the superior predictive ability test, the outcome of which supports the use of range-based conditional models. Finally, among the evaluated range-based model variants, the model confidence set procedure favours the Yang–Zhang estimator as being better suited to forecast the exchange’s volatility than the ones by Parkinson, Garman–Klass and Rogers–Satchell.     

RISK AND RETURN ON NEWLY LISTED STOCKS: THE POST-LISTING EXPERIENCE

Researchers consistently find that newly listed stocks underperform in the post-listing period. It has been suggested that this anomalous finding may, in part, be explained away if the risk during this period is lower than at other times. Evidence is presented here that the riskiness of newly listed stocks undergoes a seasoning process. Instead of lower risk, riskiness is found to be greater immediately after listing than in later periods. This suggests that the post-listing anomaly is actually worse than has been previously recognized.     

THE PARALLEL MARKET IN CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES

This paper presents some general-equilibrium models of the parallel market in centrally planned economies. The models are based on the hypotheses that private firms can operate more efficiently than bureaucratically-run state enterprises and that Soviet-type economies are characterized by price controls and quantitative allocations. The state's enforcement policy is explicitly modeled. Although the welfare implications of the parallel market for workers are ambiguous in general, under a variety of circumstances they turn out to be negative. For instance, responding to the shortage created by price controls, illegal firms divert resources from the official economy into the parallel market. The result is a higher price in the parallel market without any increase in the total supply of the good.     

Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behavior in Developing Countries

The determinants of savings generally and the specific effectsof government policies on savings and consumption are pivotalforces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesisstates that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent")income, rather than income in each period independently. Changesin interest and tax rates, money supply, or government expenditurewill affect permanent income and hence consumption and savingsonly if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporatedin the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to rejectthe Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when weallow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negativeeffect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationshipbetween the real interest rate and consumption. The evidencefor the Hall hypothesis also suggests that Ricardian equivalencemay be valid—this is Barro's hypothesis that the effecton savings is the same whether government deficits are financedthrough taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however,does not support Ricardian equivalence.     

Politics of free trade areas: tariffs versus quotas

In this paper we compare and contrast the political viability of bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) Agreements in the presence of tariffs and quotas. Assuming that the government maximizes a weighted sum of welfare and producer profits, we show that the political viability of FTAs varies according to whether trade restrictions take the form of tariffs or quotas. A key result is that whereas an FTA is unambiguously rejected by one of the countries under a tariff, it may be endorsed by both trading partners under a voluntary export quota or import quota that provides equal protection as the tariff.     

Growth and Election Outcomes in a Developing Country

We offer the first test of the hypothesis that rapid growth helps incumbents win elections for a developing country, India. We generalize the Fair (1978) model to allow for multiple candidates and test it using cross‐state data on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections. We find quantitatively large and statistically robust effect of growth on the prospects of the candidates of the state incumbent parties to win elections.     

A new Bandung? : Economic growth vs. distributive justice among emerging powers

The demographic weight and the scale and magnitude of economic growth in China and India—as well as in Brazil and South Africa—marks a seismological transformation in world politics. However, despite their economic clout, the emerging powers of the global South have done little to challenge the Euro-North American domination of the international stage—leaving that task to Bolivia, Venezuela, and Iran. The reluctance of the large states of the global South to challenge the contemporary world order—and the widening income and wealth inequalities within their borders—suggests that they are increasingly complicit in this new world order. However, as growing inequalities unleash greater political instability, it is in the interests of states in the global South to cooperate with each other to change the rules of the game.