一月份福建经济形势分析

今年1月份在福建省委、省政府坚强领导下,全省国民经济继续保持企稳向好势头。面对国际经济增长不稳定和中央适度收紧银根等因素对本省经济发展的影响,要坚持以胡锦涛总书记视察福建为动力,大力推进经济发展方式转变,保持经济平稳较快发展,促进海峡西岸经济区建设取得新的更大成就。     

Birth,Death, and Consumption: Overlapping Generations and the Random Walk Hypothesis

This paper studies the time-series behavior of consumption in a model that incorporates birth, death, and a precautionary motive for saving. Consumption of an individual agent is a random walk. However, aggregate consumption is a random walk if and only if the sum of the death rate and population growth rate is zero. Failure of the random walk hypothesis should not be attributed to finite horizons perse, but rather to inter-generational transfers caused by birth and death. Unlike certainty-equivalent models, the expected growth of consumption depends on financial wealth, rather than wage income or human capital. [D91, E21]     

The Role of Central Government in Tax Competition Between Heterogenous Regions

This paper analyzes the role of central government in a Nash tax competition between two heterogenous regions, which differ in their endowments of two production factors. Regional governments use a source-based unit tax on mobile capital to finance their public service expenditures. The central government employs excise subsidies and lump-sum taxes to induce the two regions to efficient resource allocations. We answer to the question that whether the central government can induce an efficient equilibrium, and investigate the effects of endowments difference on the optimum subsidy rates. We find that there exists a unique tax rate under which the efficiency is achieved. We identify the set of endowment allocations for which the subsidy rate to one region is higher (or lower) than the subsidy rate to the rival. The large poor region receives a higher subsidy than the small rich region, but the subsidy to the small poor region may be higher or lower than that to the large rich region. [H2]     

Foreign Ownership,Equity Arbitrage and Strategic Trade Policy *

This paper investigates whether the cost of environmental regulation influences the international location of polluting industries. Industries that operate production facilities in developing countries are identified through their use of the offshore assembly provisions in the U.S. tariff Code. Pollutions Intensity of industry output is found to significantly reduce the probability of conducting offshore assembly in developing countries. This finding contradicts the arguments that developing countries are becoming pollution havens as a result of offshore assembly independent of their general disregard for the environment. Integrating production across national boundaries might actually enhance worldwide environmental quality. Relatively clean stages of the production process are being transferred to developing countries with lax environmental regulations, while polluting segments remain in the U.S. where strict environmental controls are enforced. [F1, Q2]     

Financial Factors and the Empirical Behavior of Money Demand: A Case Study of Malaysia

The paper analyses the roles of financial factors in the behavior of M1 and M2 demands for Malaysia. The focus is on the possible changes in the elasticities of the M1 and M2 money demands in the environment of financial innovations and on the influence of real stock prices on the holdings of monetary assets. Our results reinforce existing studies that find the presence of the long-run M1 and M2 money demands and structural instability in the dynamic specification of the M1 demand. However, we are able to identify stable error-correction model for the post-1986 M1 demand and for the M2 demand. Our results also indicate the reduction in the Long run income and exchange rate elasticities of the money demands. Meanwhile, the interest rate sensitivity of the demands becomes more inelastic. Lastly, we document the significance of real stock prices in influencing the demand behavior, indicating the dominance of the wealth effect over the substitution effect. [E41, E44]     

Trade Policy and Productivity Growth in OECD Manufacturing *

Trade liberalization may promote economic growth in a number of ways, including by accelerating the rate of technological change. Firms that face more intense import competition may be spurred to greater rates of innovation; firms which export may absorb new technologies through their contact with international markets. This paper examines evidence on trade policy and productivity growth for a sample of thirteen OECD countries and including eighteen manufacturing sectors, using data primarily from the 1980s. Within individual sectors, there are strong productivity convergence effects within the OECD. After controlling for convergence, we find a positive association between high rates of productivity growth and low tariffs, and between high productivity growth and strong export performance. We found no particular association between high productivity growth and import penetration. The results are consistent with the possibility of positive linkages between trade liberalization and accelerated productivity growth. [F1, O4]     

全球价值链基础上的产业竞争力成因：“五角模型”分析框架

全球价值链理论可以帮助我们从国家层面、产业层面和企业层面来详细研究全球产业结构及产业动态,从而对产业竞争力提升或产业升级进行有效地解释和指导。本文以中国数控机床产业为例,以前人的研究为基础,从全球价值链理论的视角对产业竞争力的形成因素提出了“五角模型”分析框架。     

征信产业发展问题研究——基于征信数据库的分析

介绍和分析了我国征信数据库建设概况、意义以及企业和个人信用信息采集与应用的实践,从建立适合我国国情的征信体系建设模式和加强信用标准化建设两个方面提出了建立和完善企业和个人信用信息基础数据库的对策建议。     

浙江经济增长与物流：基于误差修正模型的分析

在全球生产体系下,物流正在成为影响区域经济增长的一个不可忽视的变量.因此,从数量上验证物流的经济价值至关重要。本文基于浙江省1978--2006年的统计数据,运用协整分析和误差修正模型对浙江区域经济增长与物流的长期和短期关系进行研究。研究结论表明：从短期来看,浙江每年GDP与其长期均衡值的偏差中的8．3694％被修正;从长期来看,浙江经济增长与物流增长间存在可靠的协整关系,从而保持两者的均衡发展具有非常重要的经济意义。     

我国国有企业体制创新中的全员职业化再造

在现代市场经济中,任何市场主体最终权益的实现,都不可能脱离优胜劣汰机制的检验。实施国企职工的全员职业化整合和平等竞争谋取各级管理及经营者岗位,不仅有利于确立社会主义企业家的产生机制,形成包括各级管理者在内的广大人才储备市场,而且,国企职工主人翁权益通过市场化方式的兑现,最大限度地激发调动起社会主义劳动者的忘我工作热情。