Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental instrument in the efficient operational management and planning of electric utilities. Emerging smart grid technologies pose new challenges and opportunities. Although load forecasting at the aggregate level has been extensively studied, electrical load forecasting at fine-grained geographical scales of households is more challenging. Among existing approaches, semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) have been increasingly popular due to their accuracy, flexibility, and interpretability. Their applicability is justified when forecasting is addressed at higher levels of aggregation, since the aggregated load pattern contains relatively smooth additive components. High resolution data are highly volatile, forecasting the average load using GAM models with smooth components does not provide meaningful information about the future demand. Instead, we need to incorporate irregular and volatile effects to enhance the forecast accuracy. We focus on the analysis of such hybrid additive models applied on smart meters data and show that it leads to improvement of the forecasting performances of classical additive models at low aggregation levels.     

Menu Costs, Nominal Wage Revisions, and Intracontract Wage Behavior

We use data from indexed and nonindexed Canadian wage agreements to study the intracontract profile of nominal and real wages. Allowing for endogenous switching between the two indexation categories, we conclude that the number of nominal wage revisions depends on contract duration, expected inflation, and the cost of adjusting wages. Our results have implications for the menu cost, overlapping contracts, dynamic monopoly union, and efficient bargain literatures.     

Digital divide and financial development in Africa

This paper analyses the influence of the digital divide on the new IMF financial development index on a panel of 34 African countries over the period 2005–2017. Using the instrumental variables technique, we arrive at the main result that ICT divide is a severe handicap for the financial systems development in Africa. The use of financial development sub-indices relating to financial institutions and financial markets, as well as their dimensions confirms the negative effect of the digital divide. Our result remains stable when we use alternative measures of financial development and ICT indicators. Furthermore, we found that the digital divide between countries is also a severe handicap for the financial development of countries lagging behind. On the other hand, countries with a technological lead or a digital dividend have relatively developed financial systems. Some recommendations have been suggested to promote digital penetration in Africa, as well as to improve the receptivity and flexibility of African financial systems.     

Gender Discrimination in Training: a Note

Existing research evidence generally leads to the conclusion that females are disadvantaged in terms of access to job-related training. This paper reconsiders the evidence for Australia using data collected as part of the 1993 Survey of Training and Education. The findings indicate that, while men could be expected to receive more training as a result of their labour market endowments, this is more than compensated for by a gender effect in favour of women. Comparison with results from an analysis of similar data for 1989 suggests a marked change in the pattern of training in favour of women.     

Chinese Companies Poised to Assert

Businesses in China are increasingly working with government and civil society to shift markets to reward sustainable development.These responsible business practices are becoming more and more embedded in the country s emerging green industrial policy and low carbon development pathways.In some areas,China is set to leapfrog into the elite group of global green innovators.     

Protecting Copyrights on the Internet——Local authorities'' efforts to tackle on line piracy

Low levels of Capital flows seen for emerging markets in 2009, but upswing in 2010. lif leaders hight progress on key best practoces reforms at financial services firms. They also stress risks of protectionism, fragmentation of the global finacial system.     

World Financial Leaders Met in Beijing

Low levels of Capital flows seen for emerging markets in 2009,but upswing in 2010.Iif leaders hight progress on key best practoces reforms at financial services firms.They also slress risks of protectionism.fragmentation of the global finacial system.     

COTTM 2009 Beijing,For Travel and Tourism

The fifth edition of China Outbound Travel and Tourism Mar- ket was held in Beijing on April 22, 2009. The past twelve months since the last COTTM turned to be a huge challenge for the travel and tourism industry. According to the World Tourism Organization （UNWTO）, the growth in international tourist arrivals has slowed down considerably due to the volatile and turbulent global economy. The final result for 2008 was an estimated growth of 2%, down from 7% in the previous year, but the forecast for 2009 is that the arrivals will be fiat at best and a few percent down at worst.