Back to basics: 5 ways to pick low-hanging fruit

Five areas of potential cost reduction related to labor and the supply chain are: Overtime actual to budget biweekly analysis, Overtime actual trend (to budget) analysis, Overtime actual total individual employee costs Actual monthly supply chain expenses compared with budget by chart of accounts code and detail analysis, Actual monthly analysis by individual vendor and detail analysis.     

On the Risk of a Sovereign Debt Crisis in Italy

The intention for the Italian government to stimulate business activity via large increases in government spending is not in line with the stabilisation of the public debt ratio. Instead, if such policy were implemented, the risk of a sovereign debt crisis would be high. In this article, we analyse the capacity of the Italian economy to shoulder sovereign debt under different scenarios. We conclude that focusing on growth enhancing structural reforms, would allow for moderate increases in public expenditure.     

Strategic decisions in turbulent times: Lessons from the energy industry

Most of the firms currently in the S&P 500 probably will not be there in 15 years. In times of great uncertainty, managers are called upon to make the right strategic choices, preserve core businesses, and prepare their organizations for the future. How can managers make these choices when the industry is under transformation? In this article, we explore how the popular VUCA framework can help to make sense of turbulent contexts and drive the decision making of managers. We study the case of the energy industry, in which traditional business models eroded quickly and dominant players lost their positions. Based on personal interviews with the CEOs of RWE (Germany) and NRG Energy (U.S.), we analyze how these executives led transformation of their organizations. We get immersed in their decision-making processes and depict how the VUCA framework helps them to identify, map, and prepare their organizations to respond to the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity in their industry. We propose a guide for executive managers to navigate through VUCA contexts, taking into account the necessity to introduce short- and long-term responses that prepare organizations and stakeholders for an uncertain future.     

Search by committee

We consider the problem of sequential search when the decision to stop is made by a committee and show that a unique symmetric stationary equilibrium exists given a log concave distribution of rewards. We compare search by committee to the corresponding single-agent problem and show that committee members are less picky and more conservative than the single agent. We show how (i) increasing committee size holding the plurality fraction constant and (ii) increasing the plurality rule affect the equilibrium acceptance threshold and expected search duration. Finally, we show that unanimity is optimal if committee members are sufficiently patient.     

Formal institutions and subjective well-being: Revisiting the cross-country evidence

A long tradition in economics explores the association between the quality of formal institutions and economic performance. The literature on the relationship between such institutions and happiness is, however, rather limited, and inconclusive. In this paper, we revisit the findings from recent cross-country studies on the institution–happiness association. Our findings suggest that their conclusions are qualitatively rather insensitive to the specific measure of ‘happiness’ used, while the associations between formal institutions and subjective well-being differ among poor and rich countries. Separating different types of institutional quality, we find that in low-income countries the effects of economic–judicial institutions on happiness dominate those of political institutions, while analyses restricted to middle- and high-income countries show strong support for an additional beneficial effect of political institutions. Our results bear important implications that we discuss in the concluding section of the paper.     

Globalisation, the global village and the civil society

Human dynamics, institutional change, political relations and the global environment have become increasingly intertwined. The development of multicultural societies has certainly not been without its problems. The re-emergence of extremist political parties, the segregation of cultures and ethnic conflict, illustrate the problematic side of socio-cultural integration at the local level. We argue that socio-cultural factors not only change as a result of globalisation, but also can be causes, as well as challenges to the process of globalisation itself. We describe how the recent introduction of the MGI and KOF globalisation indices can be used to empirically address to what extent globalisation affects social phenomena. Overall, while the rigidity of national boarders slackens, to speak about a global community is misleading. National borders still exist and the nation-state still matters. The fact is that they have to co-exist with civil society. The institutions of global civil society place limits upon the government and function as a sort of check on various forms of government, especially the authoritarian and absolutist varieties.     

Integrated models of capital adequacy – Why banks are undercapitalised

With the majority of large UK and many US banks collapsing or being forced to raise capital over the 2007–9 period, blaming bankers may be satisfying but is patently insufficient; Basel II and Federal oversight frameworks also deserve criticism. We propose that the current methodological void at the heart of Basel II, Pillar 2 is filled with the recommendation that banks develop fully-integrated models for economic capital that relate asset values to fundamental drivers of risk in the economy to capture systematic effects and inter-asset dependencies in a way that crude correlation assumptions do not. We implement a fully-integrated risk analysis based on the balance sheet of a composite European bank using an economic-scenario generation model calibrated to conditions at the end of 2007. Our results suggest that the more modular, correlation-based approaches to economic capital that currently dominate practice could have led to an undercapitalisation of banks, a result that is clearly of interest given subsequent events. The introduction of integrated economic-scenario-based models in future can improve capital adequacy, enhance Pillar 2’s application and rejuvenate the relevance of the Basel regulatory framework.     

Exports and hedging exchange rate risks: the multi‐country case

This article examines the optimal production, export allocation, and hedging decisions of a risk‐averse international firm that exports to several foreign markets with different currencies. The firm faces multiple exchange rate risks. Optimal decisions are analyzed under two scenarios. In the first, there is a forward market for one currency only. Then, the export allocation to different markets is separable from the firm's preferences and the joint distribution of the exchange rates. In contrast, total production is not separable except for a special case. In the second scenario, there is a forward market for each currency. Then, both production and export allocation are separable. Hedging with forward contracts depends on risk premia and on the joint distribution of the exchange rates. If tradable exchange rate risk is a linear function of untradable exchange rate risk plus noise, there is a conflict between cross hedging and taking a basis risk. If, alternatively, the untradable exchange rate risk is a linear function of the tradable exchange rate risk and noise, there is no such conflict. A speculative position in a biased forward market for one currency can be cross hedged using an unbiased forward market for another currency. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:843–864, 2000.     

Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability,and how effective are policy interventions? Agent‐based simulation results for Ethiopia

Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub‐Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent‐based simulation package Mathematical Programming‐based Multi‐Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers.     

External economic policy and development policy

Since 1970 the world economy has gone through a series of grave crises which have stimulated an intensive discussion about the economic and political relations between industrialized and developing countries. As seen from the Federal Republic of Germany, the witnessed events have not only an international dimension, but they focus attention again on one particular problem of national economic policy, the relationship of external economic policy and development policy, because the new strains on the international plane are in part reflected by this relationship.