Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2011

Die Wirtschaft hat sich 2010 von der tiefsten Krise der Nachkriegsgeschichte erholt. Die Industriebranchen haben dabei schon wieder fast das Vorkrisenniveau erreicht. Die Branchenvertreter blicken trotz verschiedener Unsicherheitsfaktoren optimistisch auf das Jahr 2011.     

Limits to the equilibrating capabilities of market systems

Serious macroproblems are not a simple result of inflexibilities of prices. Standard economic theory does not help our understanding of the role of money and of monetary institutions in disturbed states of the economy. Several examples are discussed.     

Factor price equalization? The cointegration approach revisited

Conclusions Absolute factor price equalization across countries is a key prediction of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuleson model of international trade, one of the more influential “workhorse” models in economics. Despite its theoretical might, the factor price equalization hypothesis has received surprisingly little empirical support. In an important exception to the rule, Burgman and Geppert (1993) argue that this might be due to the neglect of the non-stationarity of the time series under consideration. And indeed, applying a cointegration approach to (nominal) unit labor costs in six major industrialized countries (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States), they find evidence of long-run factor price co-movement. This finding can be interpreted as being in line with equalization of factor prices amongst these countries.     

How Do Large Banking Organizations Manage Their Capital Ratios?

U.S. banks hold significantly more equity capital than required by their regulators. We test competing hypotheses regarding the reasons for this “excess” capital, using an innovative partial adjustment approach that allows estimated BHC-specific capital targets and adjustment speeds to vary with firm-specific characteristics. We apply the model to annual panel data for publicly traded U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) from 1992 through 2006, an extended period of increasing bank capital that ended just before the subprime credit crisis of 2007–2008. The evidence suggests that BHCs actively managed their capital ratios (as opposed to passively allowing capital to build up via retained earnings), set target capital levels substantially above well-capitalized regulatory minima, and (especially poorly capitalized BHCs) made rapid adjustments toward their targets.     

Marketing's role in successful product development

This paper argues, on the basis of an empirical study of leading US and UK manufacturing firms, that the marketing function has on balance a more important contribution to make in identifying and initiating product development options than the technical function. It is shown that from the manufacturer's viewpoint different types of developments revolve around: (i) old product development, which is concerned wth improving or updating existing product lines and (ii) new product development, which is concerned with new product lines. Within each of these two main types further important marketing‐related options are identified which widen the scope for product development far more than is commonly appreciated.     

Evaluation Bias and Incentive Structures in Bi- and Multilateral Aid Agencies

Evaluation is generally considered as an important tool to ensure the effective use of development aid, but it is itself subject to distortions. To derive institutional conditions conducive to effective evaluation, we develop a multi‐level principal‐agent model focusing on the interests of the different actors involved in the evaluation process. The model highlights two central problems: (i) the aid agencies’ conflicting objectives of transparency and self‐legitimization, and (ii) the potential collusion between the evaluator and the project manager. Evidence for the World Bank and different German donor agencies reveals concrete institutional requirements for a reduced evaluation bias and increased transparency.     

The impact of aid on growth revisited: Do donor motives matter?

The typical identification strategy in aid effectiveness studies assumes that donor motives do not influence the impact of aid on growth. We call this homogeneity assumption into question, constructing a model in which donor motives matter and testing the assumption empirically.     

WACC and free cash flows: A simple adjustment for capitalized interest costs

This paper shows how to value investment projects involving capitalization of interest costs by using the standard WACC method. Whenever capitalized interest costs do not immediately generate proportionate tax shields, one of the assumptions that justify the use of the after-tax weighted average cost-of-capital formula is violated. As an offset to this violation, the project's free cash flows have to be adjusted. We here derive and interpret a simple adjustment formula. A numerical illustration is provided.     

TIME VARIABILITY IN MARKET RISK AVERSION

We adopt realized covariances to estimate the coefficient of risk aversion across portfolios and through time. Our approach yields second moments that are free from measurement error and not influenced by a specified model for expected returns. Supporting the permanent income hypothesis, we find risk aversion responds to consumption-smoothing behavior. As income increases, or as the consumption-to-income ratio falls, relative risk aversion decreases. We also document variation in risk aversion across portfolios: risk aversion is highest for small and value portfolios.     

Fictitious play in 2×n games

It is known that every discrete-time fictitious play process approaches equilibrium in nondegenerate 2×2 games, and that every continuous-time fictitious play process approaches equilibrium in nondegenerate 2×2 and 2×3 games. It has also been conjectured that convergence to the set of equilibria holds generally for nondegenerate 2×n games. We give a simple geometric proof of this for the continuous-time process, and also extend the result to discrete-time fictitious play.