Examining the credibility of macroeconomic forecasts: Null of cointegration approach

In this study we examine the accuracy of forecasts of a select group of major macroeconomic variables, representing both the real and the financial sector of the economy. The theoretical foundations are similar to the one used to study exchange rate expectations, i.e. a verification of consistency and rationality in forecast formation. The empirical measure of accuracy is consistency in the expectation formation process, a precursor to rational forecasts. Here we examine the cointegration properties of the actual and forecast series (at multiple horizons) using the modern null of cointegration approach. A very reliable and continuos data set, the ASA-NBER survey is used. We find evidence of short (long) term expectational consistency (inconsistency) i.e. bandwagon effects and a mean reversion tendency in case of real variables, while the forecasts of financial variables are inconsistent across all forecast horizons.     

Evolution of Statistics in India

This is a brief history of the evolution of official and academic Statistics in India which focuses mainly on the period 1930 to 1960 but traces its origins in antiquity and recent history. We also comment on how Statistics has continued to evolve since the 1960's. This is a history of both institutions and people, who built and shaped them, and of ideas.     

Everyday Lives in Vertical Neighbourhoods: Exploring Bangladeshi Residential Spaces in Toronto's Inner Suburbs

In the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), almost a third of the total housing stock is comprised of high‐rise apartment buildings. Not only do most new immigrants reside in these structures upon arrival, they often continue living here for a prolonged period, for a variety of interrelated economic and psychological reasons. It is therefore important to ask: How do these vertical structures affect the life worlds of the residents? What functions do these spaces perform? How do immigrants develop attachments to these spaces, and how do they make them their own? By drawing upon the experiences of 30 Bangladeshi immigrant households in Toronto's inner suburbs, I demonstrate that even though these vertical stacks are not conducive to frequent social interaction by design, the residents variously transform such functional spaces into unique ‘Bengali’ neighbourhoods that are filled with ambivalent feelings of hope and despair, imaginations of the future, becoming a place they can call home away from home.     

Knowledge transfer and partial equity ownership

An alliance often involves one firm acquiring an equity stake in its alliance partner. We explore oligopoly models that capture the link between knowledge transfer and partial equity ownership (PEO), where alliance partners can choose the level of PEO. PEO can increase the alliance partners' profitability by inducing knowledge transfer, but the PEO itself reduces their joint profit because it induces other firms to take more aggressive actions. This trade‐off endogenously determines the level of PEO, which can benefit consumers and/or improve welfare. Given the growing antitrust interest in PEO, we explore the antitrust implications of our analysis.     

Regional Economic Growth and Inequality in India during the Pre- and Post-reform Periods

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic performance of 15 major states in India, and examines whether initially disparate states displayed any tendency towards convergence in real per capita income during the period 1960/61–2006/07. Though the growth performance of the states has improved in the post-reform period, since 1991 the states have diverged in per capita income. The states following different steady-state paths are classified into three clubs—one convergent and two non-convergent. The regional divergence and club convergence are explained in terms of interstate variations in physical and social infrastructures, state-level policy reforms, foreign direct investment flows and economic structure. The poorly performing states could improve their relative economic position by undertaking investments in physical and social infrastructures, and speeding up the reform process by liberalizing investment and infrastructure policies. As industry and services are the major sources of regional divergence, any effort to reduce regional imbalance must focus primarily on these two sectors.