Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi‐regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare.     

An input–output model of exchange-rate pass-through

The impact of the exchange rate on price formation is often debated through a mechanism called the exchange-rate pass-through. Studies of the pass-through generally rely on econometric analysis implemented on time series data. This study examines pass-through to the domestic price level through an input–output model. The proposed model is implemented on a sample of countries, and a number of different variables connected to the pass-through are examined. A comparison across countries and sectors highlights the importance of the construction sector in price formation. National income is negatively related to the pass-through. A high dependence on intermediate imports implies higher pass-through. Price level volatility and pass-through are positively related; whereas a country’s monetary policy stance has no apparent effect. The effect of exchange-rate volatility is unclear; it is negative for the real effective exchange rate, the connection is very weak in the case of the nominal exchange rate.     

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.     

ICT and employment generation: evidence from Turkish manufacturing

This study is said to be the first attempt in exploring the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) capital on employment generation/destruction in Turkish manufacturing industry by using labour demand estimation framework. The analysis is based on firm-level data, which includes all firms employing 20 or more employees in Turkish manufacturing for the period 2003–2013. Our findings based on system GMM estimations show that ICT has employment-enhancing effects in Turkish manufacturing. Moreover, our results provide the evidence that tangible ICT capital has stronger employment generation impact than that of intangible ICT capital in medium- and low-tech industries.     

Asset price bubbles and crashes with near-zero-intelligence traders

Summary. We examine whether a simple agent-based model can generate asset price bubbles and crashes of the type observed in a series of laboratory asset market experiments beginning with the work of Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988). We follow the methodology of Gode and Sunder (1993, 1997) and examine the outcomes that obtain when populations of zero-intelligence (ZI) budget constrained, artificial agents are placed in the various laboratory market environments that have given rise to price bubbles. We have to put more structure on the behavior of the ZI-agents in order to address features of the laboratory asset bubble environment. We show that our model of near-zero-intelligence traders, operating in the same double auction environments used in several different laboratory studies, generates asset price bubbles and crashes comparable to those observed in laboratory experiments and can also match other, more subtle features of the experimental data.Received: 15 July 2003, Revised: 28 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83, D84, G12. Correspondence to: John DuffyWe would like to thank an Anonymous referee, Guillaume Frechette, David Laibson, Al Roth and participants in Harvard Experimental and Behavioral Economics Workshop for their comments, and Charles Noussair for providing his data set.     

The Normative Foundations of Unethical Supervision in Organizations

As research in the areas of unethical and ethical leadership grows, we note the need for more consideration of the normative assumptions in the development of constructs. Here, we focus on a subset of this literature, the “dark side” of supervisory behavior. We assert that, in the absence of a normative grounding, scholars have implicitly adopted different intuitive ethical criteria, which has contributed to confusion regarding unethical and ethical supervisory behaviors as well as the proliferation of overlapping terms and fragmentation of research. Accordingly, we offer a definition of unethical supervision grounded in the normative theories and develop a framework of unethical supervision by analyzing the constructs associated with unethical supervision from a normative perspective. Our analysis suggests a heavy emphasis on violations of the right to dignity. We also note that utilitarianism and certain forms of rights as well as justice have been largely overlooked in the unethical supervision literature. We conclude by considering the implications of our conceptualization for theory on the antecedents and consequences of unethical supervision and by explaining how our approach extends to the larger literature on unethical and ethical leadership.     

Land Value: Seven Major Questions in the Analysis of Urban Land Values

A review of the literature on land and its value reveals seven sources of ambiguity: 1) a precise definition of the type of land under investigation is frequently absent, 2) the temporal, and 3) the spatial aspects of the land value attributes might be inconsistently specified, 4) the relevance of the valuation methods used is often overlooked, 5) the separate land value is a mere by‐product of the total property value as a rule, and thus lacks proper focus, 6) the different agents involved in land markets are not always taken into account, and finally, 7) the explanations for the unpredictable aspects of land value are sporadic. This article explores each of these areas of ambiguity.     

Effectiveness of the Financial Ratios in the Determination of the Fraudulent Financial Statements＂ Turkey Practice

Large-scale accounting scandals which were reflected to the world public opinion particularly in the 2000s （such as Enron, Lucent, Xerox, and Parmalat Bank for Reconstruction） carried the matter of fraudulent financial reporting which was made to deceive the financial statement users （Fraudulent Financial Report （FFR）） to the forefront in the agenda of the academicians, operators, and regulatory authorities. As in every crime action, the most effective measure to be taken in preventing FFR events is to try to prevent the FFR before arising. In order to achieve this, in the most effective manner, FFR events should be determined in the formation process. In this study, fraudulent financial statements are tried to be determined by using financial ratios. For this, financial statements of 22 companies which transact in the textile industry in Istanbul Stock Exchange （ISE） were examined. Twenty-three financial ratios were selected for the purpose of determining the risk of fraudulence in the financial statements of the selected companies. These ratios increased in value by multiple regression analysis. The findings which were obtained in the study indicated that some financial statements had the risk of fraudulence. It was concluded that the ratios of inventory/current asset, total debt ratio, and equity turnover rate were a good indicator in the determination of fraudulent financial statements.     

The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate

In this paper, we test whether firms properly adjust for risk in their capital budgeting decisions. If managers use a single discount rate within firms, we expect that conglomerates underinvest (overinvest) in relatively safe (risky) divisions. We measure division relative risk as the difference between the division's asset beta and a firm‐wide beta. We establish a robust and significant positive relationship between division‐level investment and division relative risk. Next, we measure the value loss due to this behavior in the context of acquisitions. When the bidder's beta is lower than that of the target, announcement returns are significantly lower.