This paper provides new evidence on inflation persistence before and after the European Monetary Union (EMU). Taking into account fractional integration of inflation, we confirm that inflation dynamics differed considerably across Euro area countries before the start of EMU. Since 1999, however, results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the degree of long run inflation persistence has converged. In line with theoretical predictions, we find that the persistence of inflation has significantly decreased in the Euro area, probably as a result of the more effective monetary policy of the ECB. 相似文献
We evaluate conditional predictive densities for US output growth and inflation using a number of commonly-used forecasting models that rely on large numbers of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly-used normality assumption fit actual realizations out-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can cause point forecasts to either improve or deteriorate, they might have the opposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most models in some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however, combinations of predictive densities appear to be approximated correctly by a normal density: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth, and the Bayesian model average when predicting inflation. 相似文献
In a model where upstream network insiders conduct relationship-specific investment, downstream firms have an incentive to transact within networks. Evidence from US auto parts exports to 26 auto-producing countries supports key predictions of the model. Greater production scale for assemblers lowers imported parts per car. Vertical networks matter in two ways. First, although Japan's average import levels are not unusually low, non-Japanese suppliers have relatively low market penetration for parts categories where vertical keiretsu are prominent in Japan. Second, US-owned assembly abroad and foreign-owned parts production in the US both stimulate parts exports. 相似文献
As emerging economies experience a boom in capital inflows, governments are increasingly concerned about their downsides. Even the IMF (International Monetary Fund), long a stalwart proponent of financial liberalization, has engaged in a new debate on capital flow management. Drawing lessons from empirical case studies on Brazil and South Korea, this paper finds that the new IMF framework remains insufficient in two main aspects. First, by defining ‘capital flow management measures’ (CFMs) as a temporary instrument embedded in an overall strategy of financial opening, the organization insists on the general advantages of financial liberalization, which poses serious limits to emerging economies’ policy space. Second, the Fund keeps on stressing a separation of prudential financial regulation, which should be permanent, and temporary CFMs. Yet, the case studies presented here show that, especially for emerging markets with rather open and sophisticated domestic financial markets, both types of measures are interdependent and overlapping. Additionally, we demonstrate the relevance of a third type of regulation, lying on foreign exchange (FX) derivatives instruments, which may also be required to effectively manage foreign investors’ portfolio reallocations and their impact. 相似文献
Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic progressive, demyelinating, inflammatory disease, affects 2.5 million people worldwide. Approximately 63% of cases are classified as relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS) at the time of diagnosis. The aim of this cost-utility analysis is to evaluate alemtuzumab vs interferon beta (intramuscular [IM] interferon beta-1a, subcutaneous [SC] interferon beta-1a, SC interferon beta-1b, and SC pegylated interferon beta-1a) in previously treated, and vs SC interferon beta-1a, fingolimod, and natalizumab in untreated RRMS patients to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio among the treatment alternatives as prices, the route, and the frequency of administration of considered products vary significantly.
Methods: The primary outcome was the modeled incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; €/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained). Markov modeling with a 10-year time horizon was carried out. During each 3-month cycle, patients maintained the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score or experienced progression, developed secondary progressive MS (SPMS), or showed EDSS progression in SPMS; experienced relapses; suffered from an adverse event (AE); changed treatment; or died. A published network meta-analysis (NMA) was used for indirect comparison. The possibility of a therapy switch was considered. Clinical input data and resource utilization data were derived from the literature. Costs were extracted from price lists published in Austria and were calculated from the payer’s perspective.
Results: In treatment naïve patients, alemtuzumab is associated with costs of €132,663 and 5.25 QALYs in a 10-year time horizon. Costs for SC interferon beta amount to €164,159 and generate 4.85 QALYs. Also, in the pre-treated patients, alemtuzumab dominated comparators by accumulating higher total QALYs (4.88) and lower total costs (€137.409) compared to interferon beta-1a (€200.133), fingolimod (€240.903), and natalizumab (€247.758).
Conclusion: The analysis shows that alemtuzumab is a cost-saving alternative to treat RRMS in pre-treated and therapy naïve patients. From the patient perspective, alemtuzumab improves quality-of-life. 相似文献
We propose a new test to evaluate the impact of horizontal mergers on competition in the banking industry. The test is designed to be applied ex ante to potential mergers while being parsimonious in terms of data, as it only uses information on branches in local markets. The test is a counterfactual exercise based on a two‐stage model where banks compete in branching and interest rates and requires comparing the estimated degree of competition in the status quo, where branching networks by banks are those actually observed, with a counterfactual scenario, where the branching network of the new entity is the sum of the branches of the banks involved in the horizontal merger. The statistical difference between the two estimated measures of competition quantifies the impact of the merger. We apply our test to French and Italian mergers. 相似文献
Do unemployment insurance (UI) benefit recipients take sick leave more often when facing “activation” by the employment office? We answer this question using administrative data from the German Federal Employment Agency on vacancy referrals sent to UI benefit recipients. Applying duration analysis, we find an increased transition rate into short-term sick leave among individuals who had received vacancy referrals from the employment office. We find that while men on average report less sick compared to women, they respond stronger to a vacancy referral. In subsequent steps, we test the hypothesis that the results are driven by real illnesses as opposed to shirking. Our findings do not support this hypothesis. We interpret the findings as evidence of moral hazard behavior and as evidence of a side effect of an activation measure. 相似文献
As the largest importer of internationally educated nurses (IENs), the United States is considered to be the epicenter of global nurse migration. The purposes of this study were to examine the geographic distribution of IEN hiring and determine associations between community and hospital characteristics and IEN hiring. More community characteristics than hospital characteristics were strongly associated with IEN hiring which suggest perceived community needs and receptivity to lENs could be an important consideration in hospital administrators' decisions to hire IENs. These findings suggest that as the U.S. population ages and becomes increasingly diverse, the demand for IENs is likely to grow. Nurse leaders and faculty may face challenges with regard to the ethical recruitment of IENs from low-income countries, incorporation of IENs into U.S. health care organizations, and continued development of a diverse U.S.-educated nursing workforce. This study expands understanding of the demand side of IEN employment in U.S. hospitals by providing the first in-depth examination of the community and hospital factors related to hospitals' IEN hiring. 相似文献
ABSTRACT ** : This paper employs a multinomial logit model to examine what determines the choice of a particular firm for a given privatisation method. A variety of hypotheses about possible determinants of ownership change are tested using an extensive data set for Polish manufacturing at the beginning of transition. The results at a firm as well as at a sector level give strong support to the hypothesis of the importance of resource constraints on the choice of ownership. Large firms with high financing requirement are more likely to be owned by outsiders. High sectoral capital intensity discourages small insider owned firms while high degree of product differentiation is a constraint for different investors, with the exception of outsiders. We also find that firm quality, measured by profitability and exporting outside the Soviet block, appeals to all types of investors but, additionally, privatisation offers outsiders ways of entering sectors with substantial entry barriers. 相似文献