A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting

This paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a body of empirical research suggesting that popular data-rich prediction methods perform best when N ranges from 20 to 40. In order to accomplish our goal, we resort to partial least squares and principal component regression to consistently estimate a stable dynamic regression model with many predictors as only the number of observations, T, diverges. We show both by simulations and empirical applications that the considered methods, especially partial least squares, compare well to models that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting.     

A preliminary look at readmission and mortality among chronically critically ill and other medically complex Medicare patients

Chronically critically ill and other medically complex patients (CCI/MC-Ps) are those who are hospitalized with long-term intensive care needs and require extended periods of hospital-level care. CCI/MC-Ps may be at higher risk for readmission and mortality than other populations due to the severe nature their illnesses. This article examines factors that lead to increased probability of hospital readmission or mortality among CCI/MC Medicare patients. Logistic regression analyses are used to examine mortality and readmissions among the CCI/MC population. Numerous factors including length of stay in the acute hospital, age and gender affect whether a patient is readmitted to the acute care hospital within 90 days of discharge or dies within 60 days following a hospital stay.     

Does different NPD project’s characteristics lead to the establishment of different NPD networks? A knowledge perspective

In today’s highly competitive and globalised marketplace, firms need more and more to develop new knowledge and capabilities to leave behind their competitors, thus gaining market share. Knowledge is fundamental for success because a firm that knows more, often develops more sustainable competitive advantage. Networks, like those oriented to New Product Development, seem to be valuable means of learning, as firms could not achieve alone the same results, or at least not as quickly. Through this integrative systematic review, we are interested in understanding whether different New Product Development projects correspond to different New Product Development networks in terms of knowledge exchanged among the partners involved. Our results highlight the presence of four types of New Product Development networks deriving from the combination of the degree of innovation characterising the project and its mode of development. Implications and future research are also proposed.     

The Valuation of the IJmeer Nature Reserve using Conjoint Analysis

This paper describes an application of conjointanalysis. The subject of the valuation study isthe IJmeer nature reserve, which will be partlydestroyed when the new residential area IJburgis built. This paper addresses the followingquestion: ‘What is the extent of the loss ofgreen and recreational values?’. In this study,the conjoint analysis consists of threedifferent analyses based on a three-piecevaluation question. The respondents are askedto subsequently rank, mark and indicate theacceptability of a set of six cards.     

THE COST OF THE U.S. SUGAR PROGRAM REVISITED

The article analyzes the welfare cost of the U.S. sugar program using a multimarket model of U.S. sweetener markets. The latter includes raw crops, sugar extraction and refining, and sweetener users (food-processing industries and final consumers). The authors address the industrial organization of food industries using sweeteners and treat the United States as a large importer. With the removal of the program, this article estimates (all figures in 1999 dollars) that in 1998 cane growers, sugar beet growers, and processors would have lost $307, $650, and $89 million, respectively; sweetener users would have gained $1.9 billion. World prices would have increased by 13.2%. The deadweight loss of the program is estimated at $532 million.     

Achieving supply chain ‘Leagility’ through a project management orientation

Many forces have combined to make today's supply chains more complex than ever before. These forces include the significant trend to out-sourcing; the growth of offshore manufacturing and procurement; the rising demand for customer-specific solutions and the globalisation of markets. The paper highlights the challenges that organisations must address in order to gain and retain competitiveness in today's markets – in particular, the need to achieve ever lower costs while simultaneously enhancing responsiveness. In other words, the need is to develop hybrid supply chains that are both ‘lean’ and ‘agile’. Using a single case study of a global telecommunications company as an example, the authors demonstrate how supply chain complexity can effectively be mastered by adopting a project management orientation and in the process enabling outcomes that are ‘leagile’, that is, both lean and agile.     

Paradigm Shifts in Social Housing after Welfare-State Transformation: Learning from the German Experience

Welfare-state transformation and entrepreneurial urban politics in Western welfare states since the late 1970s have yielded converging trends in the transformation of the dominant Fordist paradigm of social housing in terms of its societal function and institutional and spatial form. In this article I draw from a comparative case study on two cities in Germany to show that the resulting new paradigm is simultaneously shaped by the idiosyncrasies of the country's national housing regime and local housing policies. While German governments have successively limited the societal function of social housing as a legitimate instrument only for addressing exceptional housing crises, local policies on providing and organizing social housing within this framework display significant variation. However, planning and design principles dominating the spatial forms of social housing have been congruent. They may be interpreted as both an expression of the marginalization of social housing within the restructured welfare housing regime and a tool of its implementation according to the logics of entrepreneurial urban politics.     

Unconscious Processes of Organizing: Intergroup Conflict in Mental Health Care

A critical but overlooked issue in Weick’s seminal work, The Social Psychology of Organizing (1969/1979), concerns ‘the heat’ of organizing processes, namely, the underground emotional processes underpinning the organizing of conflictual work relationships. We present a qualitative case study of psychiatric agencies mandated by public policy to collaborate but instead engaged in persistent conflict despite its deleterious effects on their working relationship and on the wellbeing of the clients they intended to serve. To explain these conflictual features of organizing, we integrate Weick’s organizing theory with systems psychodynamics to deepen the understanding of emotions in organizing, specifically the motivational forces underpinning sensemaking and actions between interacting psychiatric agencies. This integration of theories reveals a critical feature of the relationship between the conscious and unconscious organizing processes: When a threat is involved, sensemaking and action are overtaken by social defences, resulting in dysfunctional organizing of the primary task. Drawing on these findings, we enrich Weick’s seminal work by developing a model that portrays organizing as the ritualized interaction of emotions, sensemaking and behavioural responses.     

Which factors hinder the adoption of open innovation in SMEs?

The literature on open innovation (OI) is characterised by studies based both on large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Among all, one of the less explored issues in SMEs is what impedes them to adopt OI. Thus, this paper has the threefold objective to identify which factors hinder the adoption of OI in SMEs, to investigate if different behaviours exist among SMEs in relation to these factors, and to understand if the same factors effectively influence the level of adoption of OI. Based on a survey on 157 Italian SMEs, we identified four main barriers (namely, ‘knowledge’, ‘collaboration’, ‘organisational’, and ‘financial and strategic’) and three profiles of firms, different in terms of innovativeness of the industries they belong to (knowledge intensive, medium-innovative, and less innovative) and hampering factors perceived (‘knowledge’, ‘financial and strategic’, and ‘collaboration’ and ‘organisational’ barriers). Moreover, we found that some of these factors effectively impede the adoption of the paradigm.