Nobel contingencies

This year, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize in economics to Robert C. Merton of Harvard University and Myron S. Scholes of Stanford University for a pioneering formula for the valuation of stock options. The laureates developed their method in the early seventies in close collaboration with Fischer Black, who died in 1995. While sometimes the Academy's decision is greeted with harsh criticism, this time there seems to be nearly unanimous agreement on the winners' merits. Special emphasis is put on their work's practical use and its wide applicability. The praise must sound strange to those remembering recent losses and failures in derivatives trading. This raises the question of the rationale behind the Stockholm decision and the signals it is sending to the markets in a time of growing uncertainties and instabilities.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Fiscal Equalization and Tax Enforcement

In many countries organized as federations, fiscal equalization schemes have been implemented to mitigate vertical or horizontal imbalances. Such schemes usually imply that the member states of the federation can only partly internalize (marginal) tax revenue before redistribution. Aside from the internalized marginal revenue, referred to as the marginal tax‐back rate, the remainder is redistributed. We investigate the extent to which state‐level authorities in such federation under‐exploit their tax bases. By means of a stylized model, we show that the member states have an incentive to align the effective tax rates on their residents with the level of the marginal tax‐back rate. We empirically test the model using state‐level and micro‐level taxpayer data, OLS regressions and natural experiments. Our empirical findings support the results from our theoretical model. Particularly, we find that states with a higher marginal tax‐back rate exploit the tax base to a higher extent.     

The causes of real exchange rate movements

Increasing exchange rate fluctuations, such as those that have occurred in the US dollar, have recently revived the discussion about the causes of such movements and the criteria for calculating the long-term over- or undervaluation of a currency. This article stresses some aspects that have attracted little attention hitherto.     

Consumers’ avoidance of information on red meat risks: information exposure effects on attitudes and perceived knowledge

In accordance with cognitive dissonance theory, individuals generally avoid information that is not consistent with their cognitions, to avoid psychological discomfort associated with tensions arising from contradictory beliefs. Information avoidance may thus make risk communication less successful. To address this, we presented information on red meat risks to red meat consumers. To explore information exposure effects, attitudes toward red meat and perceived knowledge of red meat risks were measured before, immediately after, and two weeks after exposure. We expected information avoidance of red meat risks to be: positively related to (1) study discontentment; and (2) positive attitudes toward red meat; and negatively related to (3) information seeking on red meat risks; and (4) systematic and heuristic processing of information. In addition, following exposure to the risk information, we expected that (5) individuals who scored high in avoidance of red meat risks information to change their attitudes and perceived risk knowledge less than individuals who scored low in avoidance. Results were in line with the first three expectations. Support for the fourth was partial insofar as this was only confirmed regarding systematic processing. The final prediction was not confirmed; individuals who scored high in avoidance decreased the positivity of their attitudes and increased their perceived knowledge in a similar fashion to those who scored low in avoidance. These changes stood over the two-week follow-up period. Results are discussed in accordance with cognitive dissonance theory, with the possible use of suppression strategies, and with the corresponding implications for risk communication practice.     

Statistical Inference,Learning and Models in Big Data

The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic program on statistical inference, learning and models in big data was held in 2015 in Canada, under the general direction of the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute, with major funding from, and most activities located at, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences. This paper gives an overview of the topics covered, describing challenges and strategies that seem common to many different areas of application and including some examples of applications to make these challenges and strategies more concrete.     

Aspiring,nascent and fledgling entrepreneurs: an investigation of the business start-up process

This study focuses on three different milestones in the business gestation process, i.e. becoming an aspiring entrepreneur, a nascent entrepreneur, and a founder of a fledgling new business. Moreover, this study uses a combination of both individual and regional (or environmental) factors in predicting individuals’ success or failure to reach each of these three milestones. Hypotheses are developed to test the effect that human and environmental resources have on the odds of reaching the different milestones in the business start-up process. The study is based on interviews of a representative sample of 9533 Norwegians aged 18 years or older. From this group, 197 respondents qualified as nascent entrepreneurs. These were subsequently interviewed in follow-up interviews conducted in 1996, 1997 and 1999. In addition, regional data at the municipality level is included to measure the available pool of environmental resources. The results indicate that entrepreneurial experience is the single most important factor for predicting the outcome of the business start-up process. Even though environmental resources play a role, human resources are generally found to be better predictors of the outcome of the business start-up process. Several important implications for policy-makers are presented.     

Geschäftsprozesskostenrechnung in einem Leasing-Unternehmen

Zur Verbesserung der Wertsch?pfung organisieren sich immer mehr Unternehmen nach Gesch?ftsprozessen. Dies geht h?ufig mit einer Gesch?ftsprozessoptimierung einher, um die Abl?ufe effizient zu gestalten.