Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models

We evaluate the predictive power of leading indicators for output growth at horizons up to 1 year. We use the MIDAS regression approach as this allows us to combine multiple individual leading indicators in a parsimonious way and to directly exploit the information content of the monthly series to predict quarterly output growth. When we use real‐time vintage data, the indicators are found to have significant predictive ability, and this is further enhanced by the use of monthly data on the quarter at the time the forecast is made. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Technical efficiency and productivity changes in Spanish airports: A parametric distance functions approach

This paper contributes to the airport benchmarking literature in two ways. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt at using a stochastic distance function to measure airports’ productivity changes while considering multiple outputs. Secondly, we calculate the evolution and decomposition of the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for Spanish airports. The average rate of productivity showed a slight annual improvement of 0.9%, and the core engine of this was 3% increase in technical progress rather than through efficiency. Results, by airport, identify those needing improvement, to be more attractive in the Spanish airport restructuring program.     

Are outsourcing and non-aeronautical revenues important drivers in the efficiency of Spanish airports?

This paper evaluates the influence of contracting out, or outsourcing, certain airport services and of commercial diversification strategy. Although most of the effort is being put towards applying non-parametric techniques in airport efficiency studies, we have chosen parametric methodology. We use a distance function, as it has known advantages. The findings show the positive contribution of outsourcing and non-aeronautical revenues on the efficiency of the Spanish airports' network.     

Accounting conservatism and the profitability of corporate insiders

We predict that accounting conservatism influences insiders' opportunities to speculate on good and bad news, and thus, insider trading profitability. We find that greater conditional (unconditional) conservatism is associated with lower (higher) insiders' profitability from sales. We find limited evidence that conservatism influences profitability from purchases. These findings are consistent with our hypotheses on the different informational roles of conditional and unconditional conservatism, and on the asymmetric influence of conservatism over the opportunities to speculate on good versus bad news. Our research design takes into consideration the endogenous nature of insiders' trading and conservatism. The results are robust to different measures of conservatism and a number of additional analyses.     

Health Systems and Health Reform in Europe

The organisation of health care differs widely across Europe. Access to services, financing schemes, incentives for better care, and administrative efficiency are challenges that are being dealt with in a variety of ways. Are insurance-based systems the best solution for balancing resources and services or are national health funds preferable? Does the introduction of competition fulfil high hopes for better service at lower costs? What are the relative advantages and drawbacks of central and local management of health care?     

Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?

This paper presents empirical evidence on how judgmental adjustments affect the accuracy of macroeconomic density forecasts. Judgment is defined as the difference between professional forecasters’ densities and the forecast densities from statistical models. Using entropic tilting, we evaluate whether judgments about the mean, variance and skew improve the accuracy of density forecasts for UK output growth and inflation. We find that not all judgmental adjustments help. Judgments about point forecasts tend to improve density forecast accuracy at short horizons and at times of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Judgments about the variance hinder at short horizons, but can improve tail risk forecasts at longer horizons. Judgments about skew in general take value away, with gains seen only for longer horizon output growth forecasts when statistical models took longer to learn that downside risks had reduced with the end of the Great Recession. Overall, density forecasts from statistical models prove hard to beat.     

Is there a link between globalisation and civil conflict?

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between globalisation and civil conflict in a sample of 159 countries over the period 1972–2009. To that end, we use a measure of globalisation that distinguishes the social and political dimensions of integration from the economic dimension, thus allowing us to adopt a broader perspective than in most of existing studies. The results show that the inclusion of country fixed effects removes the statistical association between the degree of integration with the rest of the world and the incidence of internal conflict. We present instrumental variables estimates that also show no causal effect of globalisation on civil conflict. These findings do not depend either on the specific dimension of globalisation considered or the measure of conflict used in the analysis. Likewise, the absence of a relationship between globalisation and civil conflict is not driven by countries located in the most conflictive regions in the world.     

Viability of competencies,skills and knowledge acquired by industrial design students

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Many Industrial Design professionals in Spain have difficulties when it comes to getting a job related to their field. They also have...     

Market Research for the Optimization of the Consumers Response to the Recent Award of a Protected Geographical Indication to a Local Product,Beans from “La Bañeza-León” (Spain)

Abstract

In Europe several low involvement food products with reduced productions have been awarded with a PGI or PDO during the last few years. The beans from La Bañeza-León (Spain) are an example of this and received a PGI in September 2005. The general objective was to appraise the effect that the award of the PGI to such kinds of food products has in consumers, in order to optimize the managerial and public policies, and to get maximum advantage from the PGI distinction in the commercialization of them. For low involvement products with PGI, the general guidelines should be to keep the prices as low as possible, to develop intensive public information campaigns about the award of the PGI, and to offer the product in medium or high involvement restaurants, in order to reach those consumers willing to pay more for the product, that are mainly in the age range of 36 to 45 years. It is also discussed that the PGI label would have more interest than a private brand. Specifically for beans from “La Bañeza-León,” the PGI Council should urgently tackle a promotional campaign about the product and the PGI award that should reach to most of the consumers in the target markets, taking into account that as the distance from the production area increases the knowledge of the product decreases. This campaign should help the consumer to clearly identify the beans from the PGI by using an attractive logo, and to inform them that the beans from the PGI are superior than substitutive beans in taste and cooking time. Finally, public campaigns that promote the consumption of beans among youth would be necessary.