US stock returns: are there seasons of excesses?

This article explores the existence of seasonality in the tails of stock returns. We use a parametric model to describe the returns, and obtain a proxy of the innovation distribution via a pre-processing model. Then, we develop a change-point algorithm capturing changes in the tails of the innovations. We confirm the good performance of the procedure through extensive Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical investigation using US stocks data shows that while the lower tail of the innovations is approximately constant over the year, the upper tail is larger in Winter than in Summer, in 9 out of 12 industries.     

企业规模对职工工资的影响:来自中国竞争性劳动力市场的证据

本文使用在浙江省收集的企业一职工配对数据研究了国际学术界困惑已久的企业规模对工资的溢价谜题。我们发现,当控制了企业所处的地区、行业和职工的人力资本后,企业的技术效率可以完全解释企业规模对职工工资的正向作用。大企业提供高工资,主要是由于它们拥有高素质的职工和较高的技术效率。与国际上使用发达国家数据的同类文献相比,本文所使用数据的独特性在于两个方面:一是企业与职工的配对,便于控制个人和企业层面的特征;二是在制造业方面,中国的劳动力市场更接近于一个竞争性市场,因而更容易识别企业规模对工资的影响。     

危机治理步履蹒跚全球复苏仍为可期——世界经济“二次探底”可能性与未来政策动向分析

世界经济二次探底是指经济复苏过程中再次出现下调现象,目前欧洲PIIGS五国财政赤字与债务危机、新兴市场经济过热的潜在通胀压力、欧美宏微观经济复苏不同步导致失业率居高不下、投资消费信心不足,以及房地产信用卡和中小银行市场动荡都是未来可能导致经济复苏二次探底的主要原因.欧盟有必要尽早采取降低赤字与债务、降低通胀压力,以及提振就业和信心的举措尽可能规避二次探底的风险.     

新一轮增长 再现式隐忧——2010年中国宏观经济与货币政策展望

2010年,在出口明显改善、投资保持较高增速和消费稳步增长的情况下,中国经济回升趋势有望延续。受信贷平稳较快增长、直接融资提速和外汇占款增加较多的影响,今年总体流功性保持宽裕。房地产和汽车行业的加快发展,中西部地区崛起是新一轮经济增长的重要驱动力。但今年的经济运行也存在物价快速上涨、资产价格;包沫以及资本流入加快三个隐忧。今年的货币政策将以针对性和灵活性为指引,逐步走向收紧,数量型工具仍将担当主角。     

《物权法》解读

本文重点介绍《物权法》中与银行业务有关的法律规定。     

An empirical analysis of audit fee price competition after the Korean 1999 Omnibus Cartel Repeal Act

This study examines the audit service market in Korea after the 1999 Omnibus Cartel Repeal Act to determine if increased competition has led to audit fee discounting. Until 19 December 2001, when the Korean government enacted The Financial Supervisory Regulations, researchers could not address questions related to price competition in the Korean audit market due to data limitations. The new regulations allow researchers to examine audit effort for the first time because both audit hours and audit fees are now recommended disclosures. We use audit fee data of Korean companies for the 6-year period 1999–2004, and find evidence that total audit fees paid have been increasing but audit fees per hour have been decreasing. We also find that Big 5 auditing firms’ fees per hour are significantly lower than non-Big 5 auditing firms and are decreasing across time. These price pressures should be of concern to regulators and investors because prior research has demonstrated that price competition leads to discounting, which can result in unrealistically low audit fees and poor audit quality. Finally, as in previous research, we also find discounting of initial audit engagements in the Korean market.     

Good Apples,Bad Apples: Sorting Among Chinese Companies Traded in the U.S.

Committing financial fraud is a serious breach of business ethics. However, there are few large scale studies of financial fraud, which involve ethical considerations. In this study, we investigate the pervasive financial scandals, which by the end of 2012 involved more than a third of the US-listed Chinese companies. Based on a sample of 262 US-listed Chinese companies, we analyze factors that differentiate between firms that commit financial fraud and those that do not. We find that firms more predisposed to unethical behavior, due to their low regional social trust in the home country and low respect for regulations and laws as proxied by political connections, are more likely to commit accounting and financial fraud. They take advantage of low hurdles for listing via reverse mergers and avoid third-party monitoring through poor governance and auditors. Finally, we find evidence, after these scandals, of non-fraudulent firms differentiating themselves from the fraudulent firms by sending costly signals such as insiders purchasing shares, increasing dividends, and going private.     

认知网中感知时间和功率控制的联合优化机制

针对认知无线网中为了最大化认知用户的吞吐量问题,提出了一种感知时间和功率控制的联合优化机制。该机制保证认知系统在低于一定干扰限制下,将认知用户吞吐量描述成为一个多约束优化问题,从理论上分析了最优功率分配方案与最优感知时间分配方案。根据理论分析结果,设计了联合迭代机制通过确定合适的感知参数从而达到最大化认知用户吞吐量的目的。仿真结果表明：提出的联合优化机制复杂度较低,并且该方案的认知吞吐量性能最接近理论最优方案的性能。     

以科学发展观提高政府的城市管理能力

就如何提高政府驾驭市场经济的能力、完善公共管理职能、促进管理经济与社会能力的全面发展,进行了深入探讨;认为科学的发展观是政府实施城市管理的战略指导思想;建立以人为本,全面协调可持续发展的社会是城市管理的总目标;提出了如何提高政府城市管理能力的具体内容和措施.     

供需不确定性、市场竞争与现金持有——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文研究了市场供需不确定性对中国上市公司现金持有行为的影响.针对2000-2006年期间637家上市公司的经验研究表明,现金持有水平与市场供需不确定性负相关.这一关系在寡头竞争行业中最为显著,完全竞争行业次之,而垄断性行业最低.上述结果表明,中国上市公司的现金持有行为主要表现为短期逐利动机,并不支持国外学者普遍认为的预防性动机假说.这主要源于中国上市公司破产压力较低,使之过度追求短期资本回报,并没有将现金持有当作一种风险管理工具.