Trade Policy and Productivity Growth in OECD Manufacturing *

Trade liberalization may promote economic growth in a number of ways, including by accelerating the rate of technological change. Firms that face more intense import competition may be spurred to greater rates of innovation; firms which export may absorb new technologies through their contact with international markets. This paper examines evidence on trade policy and productivity growth for a sample of thirteen OECD countries and including eighteen manufacturing sectors, using data primarily from the 1980s. Within individual sectors, there are strong productivity convergence effects within the OECD. After controlling for convergence, we find a positive association between high rates of productivity growth and low tariffs, and between high productivity growth and strong export performance. We found no particular association between high productivity growth and import penetration. The results are consistent with the possibility of positive linkages between trade liberalization and accelerated productivity growth. [F1, O4]     

Industry dynamics: Foundations for models with an infinite number of firms

This paper explores the connection between three important threads of economic research offering different approaches to studying the dynamics of an industry with heterogeneous firms. Finite models of the form pioneered by Ericson and Pakes (1995) capture the dynamics of a finite number of heterogeneous firms as they compete in an industry, and are typically analyzed using the concept of Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE). Infinite models of the form pioneered by Hopenhayn (1992), on the other hand, consider an infinite number of infinitesimal firms, and are typically analyzed using the concept of stationary equilibrium (SE). A third approach uses oblivious equilibrium (OE), which maintains the simplifying benefits of an infinite model but within the more realistic setting of a finite model. The paper relates these three approaches. The main result of the paper provides conditions under which SE of infinite models approximate MPE of finite models arbitrarily well in asymptotically large markets. Our conditions require that the distribution of firm states in SE obeys a certain “light-tail” condition. In a second set of results, we show that the set of OE of a finite model approaches the set of SE of the infinite model in large markets under a similar light-tail condition.     

Different but Similar: Geothermal Energy and the Role of Politics in Germany, Iceland and the United States

This article looks into the role of the state in geothermal energy development. Based on the findings in three countries studied, it demonstrates that the demand for political intervention is strongly tied to the state of the technological and industry development. While government’s most important role in the early stages is R&D-support and regulatory guidelines, the relevance of market-based instruments and network support kicks in later. Between these two phases is a period where both ‘toolkits’ of political intervention (direct investment and indirect support efforts) have to be provided by state actors. Furthermore, the project timeline has to be kept in mind. Supporting project economics alone is not sufficient if project-internal barriers exist that cannot be overcome without specific support. The installation of an insurance scheme for dry wells in Germany and a similar mechanism in Iceland can be regarded as outstanding examples of this. However, it is important to note that geothermal energy generally will not be developed without strong public support in all development phases. The common cross-case barriers alone are sufficient for project developers and investors to be cautious about entering the industry. But if governments engage with the right instruments at the right time, there is reason to say that geothermal energy can provide a contribution to the energy turn towards renewable energies in many parts of the world, even apart from high-enthalpy regions.     

The response of vital rates to harvest fluctuations in pre-industrial Sweden

This study examines whether there was a Malthusian equilibrium mechanism in Sweden in the pre-industrial period. A unique data set on harvests, deaths, marriages and births going back to 1630 is used to calculate cumulative elasticities of vital rates with respect to harvest. While earlier studies have mostly focused on the impact of real wage, this study uses the calorie content of per capita harvests as an indicator of living standards. It finds that there indeed was a response of vital rates to harvest fluctuations, but there were important structural breaks. While positive checks attenuated after 1720, preventive checks were strengthened. After 1870 preventive checks disappeared, and possibly also positive checks. The results are robust to different models and trend specifications, with one crucial difference: while the distributed lag model shows that positive checks were significant up to 1920, the SVAR model shows that positive checks disappeared after 1870.     

Back to Basics: Remittances in the Keynesian Macroeconomic Framework

This paper examines a remittance multiplier based on the short-run Keynesian equilibrium approach and shows how income may be affected by remittance inflows. We explore this through the equilibrium in the goods and money markets, where remittances can affect both consumption and the demand for real money balances. We present this simple theoretical model utilizing a standard Keynesian framework. The short-run Keynesian equilibrium approach provides insight into how remittances affect output and income, and its potential multiplier effects. The model used is indicative of a positive relationship between the marginal propensity to consume out of remittances and the multiplier. The framework also shows that remittances will have a greater impact if its marginal propensity to consume is greater than that for standard disposable income.     

Steel safeguards and the welfare of U.S. steel firms and downstream consumers of steel: a shareholder wealth perspective

Abstract.  This paper analyses the steel safeguards applied during 2001–3. Results reveal that for shareholders of U.S. steel companies safeguards generated positive 'abnormal' returns of approximately 6%. The cancellation of the safeguards resulted in wealth gains of about 5%. Steel shareholders experienced negative abnormal returns of −5% in response to the WTO ruling that the U.S. had violated WTO law. Our results are consistent with the neoclassical view that producers gain at the expense of consumers. Also, findings indicate that downstream-consuming firms that diversify production in NAFTA countries avert some trade policy risk associated with higher steel costs caused by safeguard protection.     

The efficiency of small and medium enterprises in informal metal manufacturing in Zimbabwe: Implications for stakeholders in the agricultural sector

This study uses the structure–conduct–performance framework to examine the structure and efficiency of small and medium enterprises in the informal metal manufacturing sector in Zimbabwe. Small and medium enterprises provide a lifeline to the country's resource-poor farmers, whose numbers increased exponentially after the agrarian reform in 2000. The study utilises nationally representative, enterprise-level data from five major towns (Harare, Chitungwiza, Bulawayo, Mutare and Rusape) in Zimbabwe. Various performance measures are applied at the industry level to assess efficiency, profitability and competitiveness; these include the Herfindahl–Hirschman index, concentration ratios, average yearly profits and Tobin's q ratio. The results indicate that small and medium enterprises in Zimbabwe are modestly efficient, profitable and competitive. These findings highlight the need to integrate informal metal fabrication activities into Zimbabwe's national economic development plans.     

Royal finance under King Henry III, 1216–72: the wardrobe evidence1

Existing studies have shown how the royal wardrobe, the king's personal administrative office, regularly handled between a quarter and a half of the Crown's annual cash income. Despite this, the financial contribution of the wardrobe to royal finance under Henry III is not fully understood. For a reign in which debates about royal fiscal strategies are so notable a feature, this represents a significant gap. This article will supplement existing studies of wardrobe finance under Henry III by collectively analysing all 15 of the king's wardrobe accounts that are enrolled on the exchequer pipe rolls. The article makes two important findings. Firstly, the wardrobe was financially strong when the period of baronial reform began in 1258. Secondly, the wardrobe's financial strength was the result of a new, and deliberate, approach to acquiring revenue beyond the treasury that targeted sources of income that could generate cash quickly. During Henry's final years, this included greater reliance on credit. These findings suggest Henry III was not incapable of making adroit financial decisions. They also reveal that the foundations for the financial system developed by the three Edwards, which was more reliant on credit and sources of ready cash, were laid under Henry III.     

Effects of farm credit access on agricultural commercialization in Ghana: Empirical evidence from the northern Savannah ecological zone

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how farmers' access to credit affects agricultural commercialization in the northern Savannah ecological zone of Ghana. The study uses data from the Ghana Feed the Future baseline survey involving a total sample of 2,962 farm households. The study employs endogenous switching regression for ordered outcomes to account for endogeneity and self‐selection bias in the decision to access credit. The results from the estimations revealed that education, age, nonfarm business equipment, multiple crop production, and group membership are the variables influencing farmers' access to credit. Agricultural commercialization is determined by gender, age, marital status, household size, farm size, nonfarm business equipment, means of transport, group membership, assets index, multiple crop production, and location. In terms of causal effect, the results show that credit access stimulates higher commercialization. Thus policies that enhance farmers' access to credit are more likely to be successful in getting them to commercialize.