ITC voting behavior on sunset reviews

This paper is the first attempt to analyze ITC Commissioner voting behavior on sunset reviews of antidumping cases. Sunset determinations entail greater complexity than initial antidumping investigations because ITC commissioners must account for the impact of dumping protection as well as competitive forces on industry conditions. Empirical findings indicate that ITC voting is based on both sunset regulation and nonstatutory factors. Results reveal apparent biases against Chinese competitors and poorer nations generally, and favorable treatment toward U.S. steel producers and high-wage industries. There is also evidence of preferential treatment of industries located in states of Senate oversight committee members. JEL no. F13     

Differencing of random walks and near random walks

The traditional rationale for differencing time series data is to attain stationarity. For a nearly non-stationary first-order autoregressive process—AR (1) with positive slope parameter near unity—we were led to a complementary rationale. If one suspects near non-stationarity of the AR (1) process, if the sample size is ‘small’ or ‘moderate’, and if good one-step-ahead prediction performance is the goal, then it is wise to difference the data and treat the differences as observations on a stationary AR (1) process. Estimation by Ordinary Least Squares then appears to be at least as satisfactory as nonlinear least squares. Use of differencing for an already stationary process can be motivated by Bayesian concepts: differencing can be viewed as an easy way to incorporate non-diffuse prior judgement—that the process is nearly non-stationary—into one's analysis. Random walks and near random walks are often encountered in economics. Unless one's sample size is large, the same statistical analyses apply to either.     

A new century approach for alcohol screen in the insurance industry

Several recent studies point to the value of using combinations of biochemical markers for the identification of alcohol abuse. The Early Detection of Alcohol Consumption (EDAC) test uses a statistical method that combines the results of several routine laboratory tests to form a metabolic fingerprint for each subject. In this study, we evaluated the use of the EDAC test as a screening tool to assess heavy drinking in insurance applicants. The EDAC was calculated by linear discriminate function analysis using the results of 14 routine tests including liver enzymes, lipids, proteins, and blood sugars. We collected and analyzed 1680 random samples at Heritage Laboratories (Olathe, Kan). Alcohol Detection Services (Brookfield, Wis) and Millennium Strategies (Madison, Wis) collaborated in the data analysis and interpretation of laboratory tests results. Ninety-three percent of applicants showed a negative EDAC test. The 7% (n = 134) who screened positive for the EDAC test were then reflexed to carbohydrate deficient transferin (CDT) and whole blood associated acetaldehyde (WBAA). Sixteen percent (22/134) showed a positive confirmatory test. Among these 16% of subjects, 41% (9/22) showed no elevations in liver enzymes or HDL-C results. Four of these subjects were among the top one third with the highest elevations for the CDT test in the entire group and one of them was positive for both the CDT and WBAA tests. These results suggest that the EDAC screen may provide an efficient alternative screening tool for the identification of heavy alcohol consumption not HBA as it identifies applicants with both normal or abnormal liver enzymes and HDL-C.     

Corporate social performance, financial performance and institutional ownership in Canadian firms

This study examines the relationship of corporate social performance (CSP) to financial performance (FP) and institutional ownership. We perform our empirical analyses on a large-sample of publicly held Canadian firms and use a novel independent measure of CSP. Based on tests utilizing four years of panel data, we found no significant relationship between a composite measure of firms’ CSP and FP. However, we found significant relationships between individual measures of firms’ CSP regarding environmental and international activities and FP. Our findings indicate a significant relationship between firms’ composite CSP measure and the number of institutions investing in firms’ stock. In addition, we found significant relationships between firms’ CSP ratings regarding their international activities and product quality and the number of institutions investing in firms’ stock. These findings, while subject to the limitations inherent in the use of specific CSP measures, provide mixed support for the business case for CSP.     

政党与政权的生命

本文提出了一套关于一党制下的政权巩固理论，并试图利用该理论来解释一党制国家政权寿命长短不一的原因。文章作者认为，在政党建设过程中，政治精英们思忖如何建立强有力的政治支柱时，不得不考虑的两个因素就是反对派势力的强弱和寻租的难易程度。如果反对派势力越弱小，且寻租越容易，那么政权建设的成本就越低，但同时这又将不利于建立一个强大的政党联盟或政党组织，并最终导致一党制政权脆弱而不堪一击，一遇危机就陷入分崩离析的境地。相反，如果执政精英起初就面临强大的反对势力并且寻租的可能性很小，那么他们就会给潜在的盟友提供话语权和决策权，从而推动政党建设。事实也证明诸如此类的执政党在危机来临的时候有更强的柔韧性和生命力。为了证实该理论，作者以几内亚比绍和坦桑尼亚，印尼和菲律宾这两对国家为例进行了详细的阐述。     

Accounting Discretion in Goodwill Impairments: UK Evidence

This study examines managers’ use of discretion in determining goodwill impairment losses following the mandatory adoption of IFRS 3 “Business Combinations,” and whether this discretion reflects opportunistic reporting by managers or the provision of their private information. Although IFRS 3 was issued to improve the accounting treatment for goodwill and provide users with more useful and value‐relevant information regarding the underlying economic value of goodwill, it has been criticized on the grounds of the managerial discretion inherent in impairment testing. Therefore, ex‐ante, it is unclear how the impairment‐only approach has affected the reporting of goodwill impairment losses. After controlling for economic factors, empirical results reveal that managers are exercising discretion in the reporting of goodwill impairments following the adoption of IFRS 3. Specifically, goodwill impairments are more likely to be associated with recent CEO changes, income smoothing and “big bath” reporting behaviors. However, the results also indicate that goodwill impairments are strongly associated with effective governance mechanisms suggesting that managers are more likely to be exercising their accounting discretion to convey their private information about the underlying performance of the firm rather than acting opportunistically. These inferences are robust to various modeling specifications and variable definitions, suggesting that IFRS 3 has provided managers with a framework to reliably convey their private information about future cash flows consistent with the IASB's objectives in developing the impairment standard.