The London Business School with Gower Publishing

The world economy is just starting to emerge from the second trough of a "W-shaped" recession. Compared with the experience after the first oil shock, when industrial production fell by 12 per cent, bringing inflation quickly down from 14 per cent into single figures. the 1980 world recession was mild. Between the first and third quarters industrial output fell 5 per cent; it recovered in the fourth quarter and inflation stopped falling. As a result governments - and this is especially true of the United States - look "another bite at the cherry": monetary policy was tightened and interest rates rose. The effect over the last six months has been to produce a second dip in output. The renewed attack on inflation has, however, been successful and inflation is now well in single figures and falling. Consequently a general easing of policy is evident and a recovery of output in the second half of 1982 and into 1983 remains our forecast.     

LOWER OIL PRICES AND THE UK ECONOMY

Demand for oil remains weak, and OPEC production is running ahead of quota in most member countries, so the possibility that oil prices could fall in the near future has increased. In this Forecast Release we examine the medium-term impact on the UK economy of lower oil prices. We find that, if the government does not intervene to protect the exchange rate, there is an immediate stimulus to output growth. The inflation rate, though, is 1–2 percentage points higher after three years.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The world recovery, now three years old, has proved more resilient than many expected and will be sustained in 1986 by lower oil prices. Fears that the early-1985 slowdown would turn into renewed recession have proved unfounded, as output in both the United States and Europe picked up in the second half of the year. The improvement stemmed from lower interest rates, falling inflation and weak commodity prices and was further helped by the sharp correction to the value of the dollar following September's G5 agreement. To these factors, which will remain supportive this year, is now added a lower oil price. The recovery in world output has not produced an increase in oil demand and, as the oil price rise of 1979-80 gave a further boost to supply from non-OPEC sources, a severe imbalance has emerged in the oil market. To maintain a £26 marker price (itself cut from £29 last July) has required a cutback in production of ever-increasing magnitude from Saudi Arabia in its role as OPEC's swing producer. Now that Saudi Arabia has abandoned this role in favour of stabilising its market share, oil prices have fallen sharply. We assume that the oil price will fall to £20 by the end of this year, a fall in real terms of 30 per cent. As a result the world recovery is given renewed impetus and output accelerates over the next twelve months. A cyclical peak in activity emerges in 1987, after which output growth settles at 2%-3 per cent and inflation at 4–5 per cent.     

From unemployment to rapid growth?

With unemployment in the OECD countries approaching 30 millions, and with the Mitterrand regime providing yet another example of the failure of demand-led attempts at growth, this article considers the possibility of the advanced industrialised countries returning to a pattern of rapid growth based on plentiful labour supplies. If Keynesian measures to combat high unemployment are rejected, will redundant labour eventually find its own demand, and will this allow a new wave of fast industrial expansion?     

我如何工作

全神贯注.戈恩就是这样做的,因为他同时管理着两家全球500强公司.     

Creativity, the corporate curriculum and the future: a case study

This paper explores the proposition that the successful companies of the future will be those that find the means to help their employees to think and act creatively. Based on a case study of British managers’ perceptions of creativity and how it can be nurtured in a large US-based manufacturing company, the study shows that prevailing models of creativity in the organization are inadequate. Firstly, the structure of management in the organization and many features of the culture and corporate curriculum of the company, inhibit creative thinking and action. It is not the intention of the company to do this. The company has developed many methods of problem-solving and team-working intended to release the creative energy of employees. The organizational culture of the company is not, however, as supportive of creative endeavour as it needs to be. Secondly, the models of creativity in the minds of managers and supervisors reflect a wider cultural misunderstanding of the phenomenon. Creativity is perceived in highly individual terms. It is thought of as something which expresses itself fully in non-work areas and it is not seen as a process that can be facilitated through new ways of working and thinking within the organization. To have a successful future, this company, like many others, must change the ways in which its managers perceive the creative potential of their employees.     

志存高远的合作

三家合作伙伴为了追求摩尔定律,其紧密合作甚至延伸到了晶圆生产底层,但同时其间也仍存在着为争夺代工客户而进行的竞争.