亚洲通胀的真正威胁在于资本的大规模流入

【美国《市场观察》5月16日】在未来几年之中，通胀问题以及应对之策都将是亚洲面临的中心政策议题。今后几个季度，外需对亚洲经济增长的推动作用将逐渐减弱。在这种情况下，迅速攀升的通胀率势必会加剧政治压力，并影响亚洲向内需导向型经济增长的平稳转变。进入2008年之时，注重经济增长的亚洲决策者曾希望通过降息来刺激内需，以便弥补外需的损失。而今，他们非但不能降息，而且还可能要被迫加息。     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

Collapsing oil prices and a falling dollar set the background to a Budget in which the Chancellor, hamstrung by lower oil revenues, was seen as having little room for manoeuvre. In fact the sharp fall in the sterling price of oil has provided him with the perfect excuse for not making significant cuts in personal income tax that were largely irrelevant to the needs of the economy. Instead of a boost to household demand we have had, thanks to OPEC, a transfer to companies in the form of a reduction in costs. This should enable them to expand output against a background of falling inflation. Our post-Budget assessment of macroeconomic prospects (Section I), made on the Treasury's assumption of a $15 oil price, shows output growing by 2 1/2 per cent this year and inflation falling below 3 per cent in 1987. We are thus less optimistic than the Treasury about output but more optimistic about inflation. How was the Chancellor able, within the confines of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, to give anything away having lost so much oil revenue? A detailed analysis of the PSBR forecast (Section II) reveals good reasons why non-oil tax revenues should be some £3 1/2n higher than forecast this time last year. But, because we still expect public spending to be above the official figures, our PSBR forecast is £1bn higher than the Treasury's. Although the macroeconomic impact of the Budget was small (especially in relation to that of the fall in oil prices which preceded it), it continued the process of tax reform. We focus, in Section III, on the new proposals to deal with the problem of the pension fund surpluses to which we drew attention in the November issue of Financial Outlook. We conclude that the proposed measures could have a larger effect on tax revenues in the longer term than is indicated by the Treasury's Budget estimates.     

Structural time series analysis and modelling package: A review

This package performs specialized tasks related to specification, estimation, prediction and diagnostic checking in the context of a particular class of unobserved-components models. It is menu-driven and easy to use. Although the present (first) release suffers from a number of limitations, omissions and bugs, it is nevertheless a useful tool in the hands of a knowledgeable user.     

Fits,misfits and interactions: learning at work,job satisfaction and job‐related well‐being

The resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm has focused attention on the importance of aligning employees' needs with the requirements of the jobs they do. This article focuses on how these needs and requirements interact in terms of learning. It does so in two ways. First, it develops new survey instruments to capture the learning demands of jobs and the learning dispositions of workers and uses them for the first time in a survey of 2,810 employees. Second, it examines how these person and job characteristics correlate with specific aspects of job satisfaction and job‐related well‐being. The results show that although learning alignment is associated with high levels of satisfaction and well‐being, not all learning misalignments are associated with the reverse.     

Assessment of vehicle speeds on different categories of roadways in Ghana

Empirical evidence from road safety literature suggests that vehicular speed is an important risk factor in the incidence and severity of road traffic crashes globally. Speed studies are at rudimentary stages in developing countries, thus making vehicular speed research imperative. The main aim of the study was to establish two major speed parameters, namely, the mean and dispersion, and their implications for more extensive and long-term speed monitoring in Ghana. Research workers stationed themselves in a parked car and used a radar gun to unobtrusively measure the travelling speeds of 28,489 vehicles at 15 different inter-urban locations on three highway categories. Excessive speeding is very pervasive on all highway categories in Ghana. Travelling speeds through settlements where a speed limit of 50 km/hour is mandatory were particularly excessive. Generally, 98%, 90% and 97% of vehicles exceeded the posted speed limit of 50 km/hour on national, inter-regional and regional roads respectively. Mean speeds and speed dispersions (as assessed by the standard deviations) through built-up areas were 81.3 +/- 17.3 km/hour on national roads, 64.7 +/- 12.3 km/hour on inter-regional roads and 72.6 +/- 13.4, km/hour on regional roads. On rural undivided highways with an 80 km/hour speed limit, mean and speed dispersions were 90 +/- 18.9 km/hour on national roads, 80.1 +/- 16 km/hour on inter-regional roads and 84.4 +/- 15.6 on regional roads; also translating into 66%, 47% and 60% of vehicles exceeding recommended speeds. In all cases, speed dispersions were notably higher than the value of 10 km/hour generally found in developed countries. Excessive speeding and wide speed dispersions are highly prevalent on Ghana's highways. These factors likely account for the high incidence of traffic crashes and fatalities in Ghana. An integrated speed monitoring and control programme and by-passing small and medium settlements would be required for the reduction of speed-related crashes, fatalities and injuries.     

Gender- and frame-specific audience effects in dictator games

We study dictator allocations using a 2×2$2\times 2$ experimental design that varies the level of anonymity and the choice set, allowing observation of audience effects in both give and take frames. Changes in the distribution of responses across treatment cells allow us to distinguish among alternative motives as elaborated in recent theory. We observe significant audience effects that vary by both frame and gender. The pattern of responses suggests that heterogeneous concerns for reputation and self-signaling across gender give rise to the contextual effects associated with the give and take frames that have previously been observed in the literature.     

Book Reviews

Ross H, McLeod (ed.), Indonesia Assessment 1994: Finance as a Key Sector in Indonesia's Development, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1994, pp. 353. $25.00; S$35.00; A$30.00.

Miranda S. Goeltom, Indonesia's Financial Liberalization: An Analysis of 1981–88 Panel Data, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1995, pp. xii + 93.

Joan Hardjono and Charles Warner (eds), In Love with a Nation: Molly Bondan and Indonesia, published by Charles Warner, Picton, NSW, 1995, pp. 256. A$16.95.

ln Love with a Nation is privately published and obtainable from the following Australian suppliers: Gleebooks, 49 Glebe Point Rd, Glebe 2037; Nusantara Bookshop, 72 Maroondah Hwy, Croydon 3136; or from Charles Warner, PO Box 194, Picton 2571. (If ordered from Charles Warner, price including postage is AS20 within Australia; A$25 to Europe, America or Africa; A$23 to Asia, Pacific.)     

Financial Innovation and the Role of Derivative Securities: An Empirical Analysis of the Treasury STRIPS Program

The role that financial innovation plays in financial markets is very controversial. To provide insight into this role, we examine how market participants use the highly successful Treasury STRIPS program. We find that investors use the option to create Treasury-derivative STRIPS primarily to make markets more complete and take advantage of tax and accounting asymmetries. Although liquidity-related factors help explain differences in the prices of Treasury bonds and STRIPS, we find little evidence that the option to strip and reconstitute securities is used for speculative or arbitrage-related purposes.