Reanalyzing Zero Returns to Education in Germany

Pischke and von Wachter (Review of Economics and Statistics 2008; 90 (3): 592–598) find zero earnings returns to compulsory schooling in the basic school track in Germany. We reanalyze their study using a different dataset. In an extension, we use additional instruments which allow estimation of heterogeneous effects for different groups of compliers. We can confirm the previous result and also find zero returns for other compliers in higher track schools. Moreover, we do not find a causal effect of schooling on cognitive skills. This is in line with a potential reason Pischke & von Wachter (2008) give for their result, namely that basic skills are learned earlier in Germany and additional years of schooling are no longer effective. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can contracts solve the hold-up problem? Experimental evidence

In the contract-theoretic literature, there is a vital debate about whether contracts can mitigate the hold-up problem, in particular when renegotiation cannot be prevented. Ultimately, this question has to be answered empirically. As a first step, we have conducted a laboratory experiment with 960 participants. We consider investments that directly benefit the non-investing party. While according to standard theory, contracting would be useless if renegotiation cannot be ruled out, we find that option contracts significantly improve investment incentives compared to a no-contract treatment. This finding might be attributed to Hart and Moore?s (2008) recent idea that contracts can serve as reference points.     

The Valuation Effect of Accounting Standard 158 on Firms with High and Low Financial Risk

SFAS 158 mandated balance sheet disclosure of the funded status of firms’ Defined Benefit Pension Plan using the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) to estimate the pension liability. SFAS 158 caused a market phenomenon because the use of the PBO engendered dramatically higher estimates of pension liability and hence the perception of risk. Our work focuses on two aspects of this change in pension accounting: first, how will industry firms change their accounting strategy in light of the new rules, and second, how will firms’ stock prices be affected by the new allegedly better estimate of pension liability? Our research suggests that firms’ accounting strategies changed in that they use higher discount rates to estimate pension liability which offset the dramatic impact of using the PBO. In addition, we find that high financial risk firms’ tendencies to use higher discount rates increase with the firms’ leverage and decrease with liquidity. To test the market reaction we utilize standard event study methodology to investigate the effects of SFAS 158 on stock returns. Our findings suggest that firms with high (low) financial risk earn negative (positive) abnormal returns on and around relevant event dates preceding the implementation of SFAS 158.     

Impact of the 2014 Suspension Agreement on sugar between the United States and Mexico

In December 2014, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to a suspension agreement that set a $22.25/cwt import price floor on U.S. sugar imports from Mexico. A partial equilibrium trade model was developed to estimate the economic impact the agreement would have had if it had been in effect from 2008 to 2014. In years when the price floor would have been binding, on average, U.S. producers would have gained $138 million and Mexican producers would have lost $218 million. However, total Mexican welfare would have actually increased by $11.5 million. Furthermore, the average price floor that would have maximized total Mexican welfare over that period is $22.76/cwt. Also, under certain supply and demand elasticity conditions, the average price floor that would have maximized joint U.S. and Mexican producer welfare over that period is $21.91/cwt. The latter two estimates are both close to the actual price floor agreed to in the 2014 Suspension Agreement.     

Load profiles and flexibility in operation of washing machines and dishwashers in Europe

While the energy generation system is changing towards the use of more renewable energies, the problem of how to deal with fluctuating energy supply is increasing. Smart appliances in households are often referenced as one possible solution, as their operation may be shifted in time and, thus, used to balance an unstable energy supply. The potential of such appliances has been studied to date mainly in pilot installations with a very limited number of participants or by making assumptions on what might be possible. With this work, a semi‐representative approach for 12 European countries was used to assess actual consumer habits for the use of washing machines and dishwashers which then could be used to calculate average load profiles for those appliances depending on the time of the day. Using these profiles, it is strait forward to calculate how much load may be shifted by those appliances in a demand response application. This allows aggregators or energy utilities to assign clear financial benefits to the shifting potential of those appliances. Consumers use the shifting of appliance operation already today for various reasons. Investigating these reasons allows to learn already a lot about the flexibility of consumers.     

Alternative Approaches to Compensation and Producer Rights

When policies are changed, it is not uncommon for losers to be compensated. Economic theory and quantitative analysis are useful in determining the efficiency gains/losses associated with a policy change, but are little help in deciding what the approach to compensation should be. The amount of compensation varies, depending on, in part, the political clout of the parties being negatively affected by a policy change—compensation is what politicians and the sector demanding compensation can agree on. We formulate four approaches to producer compensation within the context of the Ontario Tobacco Transition Program, where producers would have suffered losses in the absence of compensation. The approaches range from providing zero compensation to providing compensation based on the entire value of the tobacco quota. The Canadian government chose the latter and compensated producers for the termination of the tobacco quota program based on an approach that far exceeded other possible compensation approaches.     

Democratization and Real Exchange Rates,

In this article, we combine two so far separate strands of the economic literature and argue that democratization leads to a real exchange rate appreciation. We test this hypothesis empirically for a sample of countries observed from 1980 to 2007 by combining a difference‐in‐difference approach with propensity score matching estimators. Our empirical results reveal a strong and significant finding: democratization causes real exchange rates to appreciate. Consequently, the ongoing process of democratization observed in many parts of the world is likely to reduce exchange rate distortions.