Preferences, continuity, and the arbitrage pricing theory

This article investigates the structure on preferences requiredto derive Ross's arbitrage pricing theory (APT). It is shownthat only ordinal preferences are required. In particular, theAPT does not require that agents possess preferences representableas risk-averse expected utility functions. This characteristicof the APT is not shared by the standard equilibrium-based capitalasset pricing models.     

Using simulation experiments to test historical explanations: the development of the German dye industry 1857-1913

In a simulation experiment, building on the abductive simulation approach of Brenner and Werker (2007), we test historical explanations for why German firms came to surpass British and France firms and to dominate the global synthetic dye industry for three decades before World War 1 while the U.S. never achieved large market share despite large home demand. Murmann and Homburg (J Evol Econ 11(2):177–205, 2001) and Murmann (2003) argued that German firms came to dominate the global industry because of (1) the high initial number of chemists in Germany at the start of the industry in 1857, (2) the high responsiveness of the German university system and (3) the late (1877) introduction of a patent regime in Germany as well as the more narrow construction of this regime compared to Britain, France and the U.S. We test the validity of these three potential explanations with the help of simulation experiments. The experiments show that the 2nd explanation—the high responsiveness of the German university system— is the most compelling one because unlike the other two it is true for virtually all plausible historical settings.     

A Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads

This article provides a Markov model for the term structureof credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull(1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete statespace Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of thisprocess are easily estimated using observable data. This modelis useful for pricing and hedging corporate debt with imbeddedoptions, for pricing and hedging OTC derivatives with counterpartyrisk, for pricing and hedging (foreign) government bonds subjectto default risk (e.g., municipal bonds), for pricing and hedgingcredit derivatives, and for risk management.     

Venture Capital in Canada: Lessons for Building (or Restoring) National Wealth

Canadian policymakers and regulators have been praised for avoiding many of the policy blunders that, when combined with excessive risk-taking by the banks, nearly brought down the U.S. financial sector. But, as the global economy begins to recover, policymakers everywhere need to find ways to stimulate the creation of new ventures.
On that score, Canada's record is not encouraging. The returns on Canadian venture capital investment have been dismally low, particularly in its government-run funds. In a recent survey, 40% of U.S. venture capital partners identified Canada as having the least favorable treatment of investors of any country they had dealings with. And perhaps most troubling, half of the Canadian corporate executives responding to another survey cited "inability to retain talent" as the biggest threat to their firms.
The authors begin by suggesting that these findings are all related. Without investors and the know-how and networks they bring with them, a country's ability to attract, develop, and retain top talent—business and managerial talent in particular—is significantly reduced. And as the authors go on to argue, the key to building a successful venture capital industry is to match talent with capital in such a way that all three parties—talent, capital providers, and the "matchmakers" who bring together talent and capital—are rewarded for superior performance and held accountable for failure.     

The second fundamental theorem of asset pricing: a new approach

This article presents a new definition of market completenessthat is independent of the notions of no arbitrage and equivalentmartingale measures. Our definition has many advantages, allshown herein. First, it preserves the Second Fundamental Theoremof Asset Pricing, even in complex economies. Second, under ourdefinition, the market can be complete yet arbitrage opportunitiesexist. This is important in practice, and stands in contrastto the traditional definitions. Third, under the assumptionsof no arbitrage and when used in the standard models, our definitionis equivalent to the traditional one.     

Arbitrage Values Generally Depend On A Parametric Rate of Return

Let X denote a positive Markov stochastic integral, and let S ( t , μ) = exp(μ t ) X ( t ) represent the price of a security at time t with infinitesimal rate of return μ. Contingent claim (option) pricing formulas typically do not depend on μ. We show that if a contingent claim is not equivalent to a call option having exercise price equal to zero, then security prices having this property—option prices do not depend on μ—must satisfy: for some V (0, T ), In( S ( t , μ) X ( V )) is Gaussian on a time interval [ V, T ], and hence S ( t , μ) has independent observed returns. With more assumptions, V = 0, and there exist equivalent martingale measures.