The Impact of the Asian Economic Crisis on Southern African Economies

Although southern African economies appear to have escaped the initial phase of the East Asian economic crisis relatively unscathed, the second stage of the contagion was somewhat less benevolent in its influence on southern African economies. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of the Asian contagion on southern African economies within a general equilibrium framework. We use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to examine the implications of the Asian crisis for southern African economies. Bien que les économies des pays du sud de l’Afrique semblent avoir échappées à la première phase de la crise économique de L’Asie de l’est, l’effet de la deuxième phase a été plus néfaste envers les économies des pays sud africains. Cet article cherche à enquÁter sur l’impact qu’a eu la contagion asiatique sur les économies des pays sud africains dans un cadre d’équilibre général. Nous utilisons le modèle du GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) afin d’interpréter les implications de la crise asiatique sur l’économie des pays sud africains.     

Forecasting Market Size and Market Growth Rates for New Products

How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long-term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long-range planning.     

The language of Japanese tourism

This paper discusses the way in which language is used in contemporary Japanese travel brochures. What concepts do travel agencies use to attract tourists? What themes continually recur in the advertising literature? Many of these concepts and themes are the same as those important to tourism in the Western world, but there are certain cultural themes or ways of treating tourist attractions which are peculiar to Japanese tourism. A second aim is to consider the “keywords” of Japanese tourism: those stressed in the advertising for domestic tourism and those stressed for international tourism. The relation between these two possibly antagonistic sets of keywords is discussed in terms of the ideological principles around which Japanese society is organized, and it is hypothesized that keywords for international tourism portend great and long-term changes in the fabric of Japanese society.