Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance

This paper identifies and investigates conceptual and empirical links among Russia's disappointing growth performance of the mid-1990s, its costly and eventually unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998 and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments developed into a system that flourished in an atmosphere of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation and a microeconomic policy of bailing-out enterprises through soft budget constraints. It embodies a large volume of untargeted, implicit subsidies in the order of 7–10 per cent of GDP, which has stifled growth, contributed to the 1998 meltdown through its impact on public debt and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. The overwhelming priority at this point is to dismantle this system, thereby promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of the subsidies).     

Preservation: Planning for the survival of things

Preservation—the immortalisation of living and designed things—is a channel for transmitting messages from the past to the future. Image is all important for conveying the meaning. To be preserved, a thing must have a constituency of supporters and a long-lived institution to serve as trustee: when appreciators of the message are no longer recruited, extinction is at hand. Community ecology, if extended to images, suggests some appropriate preservation policies for societies approaching steady state, eg adding to the total stock of biomass, to diversity, and to useful knowledge, while promoting new organised relationships between man and environment.     

Do switching costs make markets more or less competitive? The case of 800‐number portability

Do switching costs reduce or intensify price competition if firms charge the same price to existing and new consumers? I study 800‐number portability to determine how switching costs affect price competition under a single price regime. AT&T and MCI reduced their toll‐free services prices in response to portability, implying that reduced switching costs increased competition. Despite rapid market growth, gains from higher prices to “locked‐in” consumers exceeded the incentives to capture new consumers. Prices on larger contracts dropped more, consistent with greater lock‐in for larger users. Price changes between portability's announcement and implementation are consistent with rational expectations.     

The evolution of a regional container port system: the Pearl River Delta

This study investigates the progress of container port system development in South China, focusing particularly on the interplay between Hong Kong and the other ports in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. After identifying the downgrading trend of Hong Kong from a transshipment hub port for Asia and for China as a whole to a regional load center and the emergence of other deep-sea direct-service ports, the paper looks into the causes of this structural change of the port system. Four major causes are identified: the cost-base competition, the impact of the unique “one-country two-systems” policy, the impact of globalization and container standardization, and the impact of multi-modal accessibility and connectivity. The paper reveals that the interplay between different governments and between the governments and port operators are the local mechanisms that together as a whole respond to the shippers’ needs and the shipping lines’ pressure. It confirms that the interdependencies and competitive relations between terminals are being played out at a regional level. While the particular situation of the PRD is unique in many regards, the features emerging there, with its dominant hub, its network of feeder ports and its emerging direct-service non-hub terminals, are being replicated elsewhere.     

Book reviews

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The British and American Rules: an Experimental Examination of Pre-trial Bargaining in the Shadowof the Law

A commonly held view is that the frequency and value of pre-trial settlements in civil disputes are greatly influenced by the cost allocation regime that is in place if the case goes to trial. There is a large and growing theoretical literature on this subject but almost no empirical evidence. This is due simply to the scarcity of relevant data owing to the confidentiality generally associated with such matters. However, the area is an ideal one to analyse experimentally. In this paper we consider the effect of the British and American rules for cost allocation using such an experimental methodology. We find that the two rules produce no difference in the frequency of pre-trial settlements but that the British rule produces higher settlements (pro-pursuer) if the probability of the pursuer winning is large.     

These Brands Build Community

NEW YORK For Tony Hsieh, CEO at Zappos, meeting up with a customer at a bar in midtown Manhattan was perfectly natural. Most execs with 1,600 employees and doing over $1 billion in annual sales would probably pass on having drinks with an individual customer, but Hsieh is not your typical CEO. In the past week alone he had given away shoes on Twitter, sent out an open invitation to a company barbecue and solved a service problem a customer left in a blog comment. If this seems exhausting, Hsieh sees it as part of a larger strategy to build Zappos into a brand on par with Virgin.     

Long-Term Care Insurance and Life Insurance Demand

This article investigates the interaction between life insurance and long-term care insurance markets on the demand side. In the model utility depends on both consumption and bequest, and utility from consumption is contingent on the state of health. While the demand for life insurance increases both with decreasing income and with a rising degree of altruism, the influences of these two parameters on the demand for long-term care insurance are ambiguous. If the utility shock arising from disability declines, both insurance demands will rise.     

Valuing and hedging fixed rate mortgage commitments

A fixed rate loan commitment that is binding on the lender but not on the loan applicant is equivalent to a put option. This article uses the Black-Scholes option pricing model to establish a value for fixed rate loan commitments and to derive the hedge ratio for the lending institution to hedge the interest rate risk associated with the commitments in the FHLMC forward market for mortgages. The effectiveness of the resulting hedge is tested in a simulation, where it is found that the result is a 71% reduction in the variance of the value of the lender's gain or loss associated with the commitment period.     

Is Beta Dead or Alive?

The debate about whether beta is dead or alive has heated up once again. We believe the empirical work supporting either side of the argument is limited because market frictions are not adequately addressed. This study clarifies the controversy about the issue by creating a new moving-average beta and analyzing two market anomalies: the turn-of-the-year and the Monday effects. What is discovered in this research is (1) that a fundamental source of the problem underlying the two types of market anomalies is the persistence of market frictions that retard the arbitrage process; (2) that beta is seriously ill if the effects of market frictions are ignored; and (3) that beta is alive and well if the effects of market frictions are accommodated. Also, we show, by using an optimal lead/lag structure, the moving-average beta provides significantly higher explanatory power for the turn-of the-year and the Monday effects than betas created from ordinary least squares regression and Scholes-Williams and Fama-French methods because the moving-average beta accommodates the effects of market frictions into the body of beta itself. This new type of beta, a moving-average beta, is demonstrated to be robust.