Risk Arbitrage in Takeovers

This article studies the role of risk arbitrageurs in takeoversand the source of their advantage. We show how the presenceof arbitrageurs affects the value of the target shares, sincearbitrageurs are more likely to tender. Therefore an arbitrageurhas the informational advantage of knowing he bought shares.In equilibrium, the number of arbitrageurs buying shares andthe price they pay are determined endogenously. We also presentseveral empirical implications, including the relationship amongtrading volume, takeover premium, liquidity of the shares, andthe number of risk arbitrageurs investing in one particulardeal.     

Managerial Ownership, Information Content of Earnings, and Discretionary Accruals in a Non–US Setting

This study employs Danish data to examine the empirical relationship between the proportion of managerial ownership and two characteristics of accounting earnings: the information content of earnings and the magnitude of discretionary accruals. In previous research concerning American firms, Warfield et al. (1995) document a positive relationship between managerial ownership and the information content of earnings, and a negative relationship between managerial ownership and discretionary accruals. We question the generality of the Warfield et al. result, as the ownership structure found in most other countries, including Denmark, deviates from the US ownership configuration. In fact, Danish data indicate that the information content of earnings is inversely related to managerial ownership.     

Are the Best Small Companies the Best Investments?

Previous research finds that large companies previously judged to be excellent growth companies have subsequently been poor investments. We examine small companies selected by Business Week on the basis of multiple criteria used in annual articles featuring highly rated growth companies. We study the investment performance over the three years before eleven annual Business Week publications and the three years after publication. We find positive excess returns in the pre‐publication period, but negative excess returns in the post‐publication period. This reversal in investment performance appears to be due to a mean‐reversion tendency in operating performance, in which the earnings and the past rates of return on capital of such companies subsequently decrease significantly.     

Accounting for Option–based Compensation: The Economic Cost Approach

The intrinsic value approach amortizes over the life of the option, the difference between the stock price on the date of the grant and the exercise price of the option. The fair market value approach amortizes over the life of the option, the market value of stock options on the date of the grant. These approaches do not reflect the changes in the option–based compensation cost after the grant date. This paper proposes an economic cost approach that not only adjusts for the changes in the value of the options during its life but also records the issuance of the stock at fair market value on the exercise date.     

基于Panel—Data模型的山东省区域旅游问题研究

旅游业已被公认为“朝阳产业”、“无烟工业”，是集吃、住、行、游、购、娱为一体的综合性很强的产业，其光明的发展前景已为世人所公认。旅游业对其相关产业的牵动比例为1：4，可以充分带动地方经济的发展，发展潜力很大。本文运用了山东省17地市的国内旅游情况的合成数据，通过建立完整的计量模型，进行计量分析，进而发现各地市每增加一万人次的旅游者，对该地区的旅游经济的影响存在一定的差异，并且对于差异进行聚类分析，得出全省各地市的不同属类，为山东省日后旅游市场的更好发展提出了一些相应的建议。     

The colors of investors’ money: The role of institutional investors around the world

We study the role of institutional investors around the world using a comprehensive data set of equity holdings from 27 countries. We find that all institutional investors have a strong preference for the stock of large firms and firms with good governance, while foreign institutions tend to overweight firms that are cross-listed in the U.S. and members of the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index. Firms with higher ownership by foreign and independent institutions have higher firm valuations, better operating performance, and lower capital expenditures. Our results indicate that foreign and independent institutions, with potentially fewer business ties to firms, are involved in monitoring corporations worldwide.     

国库现金对货币供给政策的影响机制及证据:基于中国中央银行经理国库制度背景的研究

随着近年来国库现金的迅速增加,万亿国库现金波动对中央银行货币供给政策的影响日益突出。本文在中国中央银行经理国库的制度背景下,通过构建国库现金与货币供给的理论分析框架所做的研究表明,国库现金与基础货币、货币供应量都存在稳定的反向关系,国库现金的增减将导致基础货币和货币供应量的收缩和扩张。本文进一步以中国2000~2006年月度时间序列数据进行的经验分析显示,国库现金与各层次货币供应量之间存在长期的协整关系,国库现金是引起货币供应量变化的Granger因,国库现金的正向冲击导致货币供应量产生显著的负向反应,货币供应量由于国库现金增减而产生收缩和扩张效应。基于研究结论,本文根据当前中国具体情况提出了若干政策建议。     

The economic performance of the Russian economy in 2006 and a forecast for 2008–2010

This article examines the economic outcome of 2006 and builds a forecast for 2007–2010. The medium-term development risks of the Russian economy are analyzed.     

2008:全球经济预测和中期展望

一、全球经济展望 实际上要想做得精确非常容易,但是要想做正确是很难的,经济学家在社会当中只会"正确"两字,所以我想给大家介绍各种各样的想法,并进行讨论,你们可以自己判断经济的前景到底如何,以及我们面临怎样的风险.