Estimating the U.S. output gap with state‐level data

This paper develops a method to estimate the U.S. output gap by exploiting the cross‐sectional variation of state‐level output and unemployment rate data. The model assumes that there are common output and unemployment rate trend and cycle components, and that each state's output and unemployment rate are subject to idiosyncratic trend and cycle perturbations. I estimate the model with Bayesian methods using quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2018:Q2 for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Results show that the U.S. output gap reached about negative 4.6% around the years of the Great Recession and was about 0.9% in 2018:Q2.     

The evolution of world trade from 1995 to 2014: A network approach

This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. However, these features do not correspond to a linear aggregation of the characteristics of its constituents (trade sectors). Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007–2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a two-group (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure.     

Bank market power and the intensity of borrower discouragement: analysis of SMEs across developed and developing European countries

Small Business Economics - This paper analyzes the effect of bank market power on the financial constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through the study of borrower...     

Tax-benefit systems and differences in aggregate labour force participation: Comparative evidence from the Czech Republic and Hungary

This paper investigates the extent to which cross-country differences in aggregate participation rates can be explained by differences in tax-benefit systems. We take the example of two countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which – despite a lot of similarities – differ markedly in labour force participation rates. Using comparable individual-level labour supply estimates, we simulate how the aggregate participation rate would change in one country if the other country’s tax and social welfare system were adopted. The estimation results for the two countries are quite similar, suggesting that individual preferences are essentially identical in the two countries. The simulation results show that about one-third of the difference in the participation rates of the 15–74 year-old population and more than two-thirds of the participation of the prime-age population can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems.     

A city of trades: Spanish and Italian immigrants in late-nineteenth-century Buenos Aires,Argentina

The city of Buenos Aires in the 1890s is an extreme case in immigration history since the native workers accounted for less than one-third of the labour force. In this paper, we look at the labour market performance of Argentineans vis-à-vis the largest two immigrant groups, Italians and the Spaniards. We find that, on average, Argentineans enjoyed higher wages, but workers specialised in particular occupations by nationality. Immigrants clustered in occupations with lower salaries. Despite higher literacy levels and the language advantage, Spaniards did not outperform Italians in earnings. Ethnic networks facilitated the integration of immigrants into the host society and played a role in the occupation selection of immigrants. Our results suggest that Italian prosperity in Buenos Aires was not based on superior earnings or skills but on older and powerful networks.     

IMPACT ON FIRMS OF THE USE OF KNOWLEDGE EXTERNAL SOURCES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

This study summarizes the main conclusions from a systematic review of the empirical literature regarding the impact on firms of the use of knowledge external sources (universities, research institutes and knowledge intensive business services). With the aim to organize the literature, we classify the different works according to the research question addressed: (i) which firms use knowledge external sources?; (ii) Do firms using knowledge external sources achieve better results?; And (iii) which firms benefit the most from using knowledge external sources? Stylized facts are that larger, more R&D intensive and high tech firms are more likely to use knowledge external sources and that use of knowledge external sources is associated to firms higher technical results. Less attention has been paid to the third question and evidence is not conclusive. Several recommendations for future research emerge. First, to take in greater consideration methodological issues so that potential biases in the results caused by sample selection and endogeneity are handled properly. Second, to pay more attention to heterogeneous outcomes. Third, to use continuous indicators of depth and breadth of links allowing for non‐linear relationships and fourth, to extend evidence for developing countries and service industries.     

Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods

This paper deals with the issue of forecastability of sales activities of independent financial advisers (agents). Employing the most common quantitative methods on a diverse sample of timelines from multiple advisory companies, we have found that under most settings, these methods offer sub-par performance with high relative errors and no statistical differences between them. When a more granular approach is applied (reflecting sales unit size), ARIMA and the simple moving average emerge as significantly less accurate. This outcome is true for all sales units regardless of their size, when relative error is concerned. Thus, our analysis confirms the difficult forecastability of financial sales, speaking against the utilisation of more sophisticated forecasting methods, which mostly fail when compared to their much simpler and less costly counterparts.

     

Openness of the economy,terms of trade,and arms

It is estimated that world military spending in 2011 amounted to over 2.5% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This corresponds to a spending of $233 per person in the world at 2010 constant prices, an amount close to the GDP per capita of the poorest country in the world. Therefore, it is important for economists to understand the allocation of resources to this sector of the economy. I present a model that explores the determinants of a country's level of military spending. I show how greater gains from trade can lead to greater military expenditures to protect them. It is also found that expansion in the demand for a country's tradable commodities, that is, an improvement in that country's terms of trade, will impact defense spending. Several other propositions emerge from the model which are then empirically tested using both pooled and time series data. The statistical results support the model's propositions.     

Employee share ownership in a unionised duopoly

Profit sharing schemes have been analysed assuming Cournot competition and decentralised wage negotiations, and it has been found that firms share profits in equilibrium. This paper analyses a different remuneration system: employee share ownership. We find that whether firms choose to share ownership or not depends on both the type of competition in the product market and the way in which workers organise to negotiate wages. If wage setting is decentralised, under duopolistic Cournot competition both firms share ownership. If wage setting is centralised, only one firm shares ownership if the degree to which goods are substitutes takes an intermediate value; otherwise, the two firms share ownership. In this case, if the union sets the same wage for all workers neither firm shares ownership. Therefore, centralised wage setting discourages share ownership. Finally, under Bertrand competition neither firm shares ownership regardless of how workers are organised to negotiate wages.