Current account adjustment in industrial countries

This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10–20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit–GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.     

Strategic integration of customers and channels

The challenge for financial services organisations is to understand the impact that new channels will have on their existing branch network and customer base both now and in the future. This paper offers a practical approach to understanding the steps involved and introduces two new market-specific tools designed to aid financial services organisations in quantifying this demand. The paper concludes by looking at trends in channel management and channel integration with specific reference to the US asset management marketplace.     

Trading Costs in Early Securities Markets: The Case of the Berlin Stock Exchange 1880-1910

Based on daily prices (amtliche Kurse) we estimate effective spreads of securities traded at the Berlin Stock Exchange in 1880, 1890, 1900 and 1910. Several extensions of the Roll measure are applied. We find surprisingly tight effective spreads for the historical data, comparable with similar measures of the MDAX and DAX at the end of the 20th century.     

Relationship Banking, Liquidity, and Investment in the German Industrialization

Close bank relationships are thought to ameliorate firms' liquidity constraints—a phenomenon frequently measured by liquidity sensitivity of investment. Using German firms during the formative years of universal banking (1903–1913), this paper shows that, even controlling for selection bias, investment is more sensitive to internal liquidity for bank-networked firms than unattached firms. The firm exhibiting the greatest liquidity sensitivity, however, faced no apparent liquidity constraint. The findings yield two implications: they support recent research rejecting a linear relationship between liquidity sensitivity and financing constraints, and they suggest that relationship banking provides no consistent lessening of firms' liquidity sensitivity.     

Innovation and the precautionary principle

Recent environmental policies favour the polluter pays principle. This principle points out the pollutant financial liability for the eventual incidents induced by his activities. In this context, we analyse the decision of an agent to invest in new industrial activities, the consequences of which on human health and the environment are initially unknown. It is not possible for him to delay investing, but the agent has the opportunity to acquire information and to reduce the cost of an accident. This allows the agent to reduce uncertainty regarding dangers associated with the project and to limit potential damages that it might cause. However, the agent's chosen level of these actions may be considered as insufficient and not acceptable by society as response in the face of a possible danger. Precautionary state regulation may then be introduced. We appreciate that this regulation may slow down innovation and may favour innovation in countries with less safety requirements. We find that the agent may get around the goal of the regulation by ignoring the information on the dangerousness of its project. We then propose some policy tools which stimulate innovation and impose a certain level of risk considered as acceptable for society to the agent. Finally, we use a numerical analysis based on the Monsanto Company for studying the agent's behaviour with different regulatory frameworks.     

What does the future hold for giving? An approach using the social representations of Generation Y

• Nowadays, not‐for‐profit organizations and charities face the ageing of donors and a growing debate over monetary donation collection methods. They need to find solutions to attract younger generations of donors. Could this be done using the same methods applied to older generations? This present research investigates social representations (SRs) of giving by younger generations to understand how not‐for‐profit organizations and charities should approach them. The study focuses on SRs of a French sample of 276 individuals from Generation Y born between 1979 and 1991. It uses the free association technique. The results show paradoxical representations of giving. Institutionalization of giving is salient as representation of it as a freely consenting act. The paradox relies also in the strong presence of a relationship with others that parallels the gift as an individualistic choice.
• Generation Y individuals appear to be sociable, yet they evoke more sharing and solidarity than charity. Institutionalized forms of giving, particularly via charities and not‐for‐profit organizations, are rejected. These individuals seem to express their individuality through practices that resemble sharing rather than giving. From a managerial point of view, these results shed light on the factors liable to cause members of this generation to give, such as (i) the use of social networks, (ii) appealing to pleasure, festivities and efficiency rather than to guilt and duty, and (iii) encouragement to “work within the not‐for‐profit organization”.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Substitution between leisure activities: a quasi-natural experiment using sports viewing and cinema attendance

The allocation of time between leisure activities and work has been extensively analysed in academic literature. However, leisure time is limited and there may not be sufficient time to enjoy all the leisure activities desired. Hence, this article considers the allocation of time between substitute leisure activities. International football tournaments provide an opportunity to consider consumers’ preferences for watching football and films in a quasi-natural experimental setting. A trade-off between these leisure activities is identified using a difference-in-difference methodology. Using an original, four-country data set, a large and robust negative effect of mega sports events on cinema admissions is identified.     

Book briefs

Food policy: Integrating supply, distribution and consumption, EDI series in economic development, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London, 1987

Food poverty and consumption patterns in Kenya, International Labour Office, Geneva, 1986