Optimism and the perceptions of new risks

While many risks, especially new ones, are not objectively quantifiable, individuals still form perceptions of risks using incomplete or unclear evidence about the true nature of those risks. In the case of well known risks, such as smoking, individuals perceive risks to be smaller for themselves than others, exhibiting ‘optimism bias’. Although existing evidence supports optimism bias occurring in the case of risks about which individuals are familiar, evidence does not yet exist to suggest that optimism bias applies for new risks. This paper addresses this question by examining the gap in perceptions of risks individuals have for themselves versus society and the environment, conceptualised as social and/or environmental optimism biases. We draw upon the 2002 UEA‐MORI Risk Survey to examine the existence of optimism bias and its effects on risk perceptions and acceptance regarding five science and technology‐related topics: climate change, mobile phones, radioactive waste, GM food and genetic testing. Our findings provide evidence of social and environmental optimism bias following similar patterns and optimism bias appearing greater for those risks bringing sizeable benefit to individuals (e.g. mobile phone radiation) rather than those more acutely affecting society or the environment (e.g. GM food or climate change). Social optimism bias is found to reduce risk perceptions for risks that have received large amounts of media attention, namely, climate change and GM food. On the other hand, optimism bias appears to increase risk perceptions about genetic testing.     

Determinants of UK Box Office Success: The Impact of Quality Signals

This paper analyses the roles of various quality signals in the demand for cinema attendance in the United Kingdom. Estimation of a three-stage least squares model with data for 527 films released in the United Kingdom shows that the impacts of advertising and critical reviews on box office revenues vary both in channels and magnitudes of impact. Our model treats total advertising as endogenous, alongside the number of opening screens and total box office revenues, while critical reviews are considered exogenous. Our results show that total advertising affects total box office revenue while responding endogenously to critical reviews.     

Developments of the German Heat Market of Private Households Until 2030: A Simulation Based Analysis

The paper at hand studies the future development of the German heat market of private households until 2030 using a microeconomic simulation model developed by the authors. The model simulates the development of insulation measures and installed heating systems in the building stock, thereby incorporating a discrete choice model to represent the household decisions for heating systems. Because of the long lifetime of heating systems, the residential heating market adopts slowly. Natural gas fired burners still remain the most important heating system until 2030 whereas fuel oil technologies further lose market shares. Final energy consumption is projected to decrease by about 20?% between 2010 and 2030 primarily due to modernization of heating systems and therefore a higher fuel efficiency. Accordingly, sectoral greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 24?%.     

How task constraints affect inspiration search strategies

Searching for sources of inspiration is central to creative design; however, we have limited knowledge of individual inspiration search strategies in response to varying levels of task constraints. We studied 39 high-school students’ inspiration search strategies using Google Images. Low task constrainedness led to divergent search marked by quick iterations, limited design task usage, and a heterogeneous image set. Intermediate constrainedness prompted in-depth, on-task exploration characterized by slow and careful iterations with more search result examination, extensive design task usage, and homogenous images. High constrainedness led to flexible bracketing with quick, flexible design task use, ending with heterogeneous images. Images from the intermediately and highly constrained conditions generated more ideas and were perceived as more inspiring (relative to low) in a new group of students. We discuss the idea of a ‘sweet spot’ of constrainedness in an inspiration search process in design and consider implications for design research and future work.     

The Unequal Effect of India's Industrial Liberalization on Firms’ Decision to Innovate: Do Business Conditions Matter?

Product‐market competition can boost industry growth if firms invest more in innovation. Using a natural policy experiment, the removal of India's License Raj, we show that firms in liberalized industries were 9% more likely to invest in R&D than firms in non‐liberalized industries. However, the impacts were not the same across firms of different size. After the reforms, firms in the top quartile were 23% more likely to invest in R&D than those in the lowest size quartile. Both productivity differences across firms and the heterogeneous impacts of business conditions on firms explain unequal effects of India's industrial liberalization reform.     

Toward sustainable consumption: Researching voluntary simplifiers

This article examines and extends the notion of voluntary simplifiers (VS). VS are individuals who have freely chosen a frugal, anticonsumer lifestyle that features low resource use and environmental impact. The article will begin by reviewing empirical work with VS and their mainstream counterparts, non‐voluntary simplifiers (NVS). It will go on to identify and locate within this literature an intermediate group: beginner voluntary simplifiers (BVS). BVS may support some aspects of sustainability (such as buying fair‐trade coffee or recycling domestic waste) without either embracing a complete lifestyle change like VS, or completely dismissing ethical or environ‐mental features of products and services they consume, like NVS. Insight into the complex decision‐making processes of BVS is crucial for the understanding of the concept of voluntary simplification and is therefore important for the advancement of sustainable consumption. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Epidemics, health and disease in a small, isolated environment

Some health consequences of the interaction of man and his environment on the three small Pacific atolls that constitute Tokelau are examined. The demographic history of Tokelau is described. The pattern of health, with emphasis on certain infectious diseases, illustrates the way in which small isolated islands react to such exposures. The strength of the community approach, which has achieved greater compliance than can usually be expected in larger communities, will be illustrated by referring to certain treatment programmes instituted over recent years.Atolls, such as Tokelau, are very different in their characteristics from other types of islands. Therefore, much of what will be presented will only be applicable to such a small isolated traditional society. There are, however, some general observations and lessons which will have much wider application.     

Leadership training for managers: An Adlerian approach

Adlerian theory—a social model of human behavior—provides an effective framework to improve managerial practices and enhance organizational leadership. Developed by Alfred Adler (1870–1937), founder of the influential school of individual psychology, Adlerian theory promotes principles of social interest, democracy, and encouragement. These principles may guide leaders in building collaborative, productive workforces through participative management, coaching, and employee engagement. Experiential training exercises that integrate Adlerian principles can help managers expand their interpersonal competencies and increase leadership effectiveness.     

How does strategic orientation matter in Chinese firms?

As China continues to transition toward a market economy, how strategic orientation affects firm performance has received significant attention. This article reviews the extant literature with a framework that depicts contemporary work on strategic orientation, the drivers of strategic orientation, and its boundary conditions. We identify important research gaps and propose to integrate institutional theory, dynamic capability perspective, and the knowledge-based view within the strategic orientation research stream for future investigations.