Administración del riesgo crediticio al menudeo en México: una mejora econométrica en la selección de variables y cambios en sus características

The early prediction of bad debtors in revolving loans in Mexico is a relevant current issue. The proposed econometric model of behavioral scoring considers the changes in the characteristics of consolidated clients and produces better results than those obtained with methodology used by the CNBV on provisions. The obtained results show the possibility of replacing the current model, minimizing the expected loss and increasing the ROA of Mexican financial institutions in 2.20% complying the methodology and statistical testing criteria according to the Unique Banking Dispositions and the guidelines of Basel II on credit risk.     

Is socially responsible investment useful in Mexico? A multi-factor and ex-ante review

The present paper continues the firsts reviews made to socially responsible investment in Mexico. We extended these reviews by using a non-parametric multivariate equality test, along with a multi-factor market cap model, and a Monte Carlo simulation. Our results show that the IPCS index, the IPCcomp and the IPC have a statistically equal mean-variance performance, suggesting that this sort of investment style (SRI) is a good substitute of the broad market investment style in the long term. Among the causes of this finding is the fact that the IPCS and the IPCcomp indexes have almost the same large and small cap stock concentration and the IPC index (a large-cap one) is not as diversified and mean-variance efficient as the former.     

Are firms accessing venture funding more financially constrained? New evidence from capital structure adjustments

We analyze whether firms that receive venture capital (VC) at a later date face more financial constraints than a one-by-one matched sample of firms that did not receive VC funding (control group). The aim is to check whether their financial flexibility explains why they decide to seek external equity funding. In contrast with other papers, which focus on the sensitivity of investments to cash flow, we study this issue by applying a dynamic model to analyze the speed of adjustment to their target debt levels prior to receiving the first VC investment. We analyze a representative sample of 237 Spanish unlisted firms that received VC between 1995 and 2007 and its corresponding control group. We find that firms that receive VC funding show a significantly lower speed of adjustment than their matched peers before the initial VC round. It seems that the former are more concerned about funding the required investments than about adjusting the firm's debt ratio to a target level. Our results confirm the role of VC in filling the equity gap in constrained unlisted firms. From a capital structure perspective, VC may become a tool for these companies to balance their capital structure in a growth process.     

Can Investors Identify Managerial Discretion in Corporate Social Responsibility Practices? The Moderate Role of Investor Protection

This paper analyses investors’ ability to identify if managers use corporate social responsibility as an entrenchment practice to conceal the risk of dismissal associated with managerial discretion and if this detection is determined by the level of investor protection orientation. Results based on an international database of 1949 companies show that investors and markets do not identify managerial entrenchment based on the promotion of sustainable practices, except when such entrenchment is developed by companies located in countries with strong investor protection. In these countries, investors identify and penalise such companies with lower financial performance.     

The introduction of seasonal unit roots and cointegration to test index aggregation optimality: An application to a Spanish farm price index

In this paper we present a methodological proposal of the way integration and cointegration analysis can best be used to test if the level of aggregation of an index is adequate. Using this proposal, we enquire the extent to which a Spanish aggregate farm price index captures the behavior of its components. First version received: October 1994/final version received: September 1998     

Increasing a brand’s competitive clout: the role of market share,consumer preference,and price sensitivity

The market power (or ‘competitive clout’) of a brand is an increasingly important component of modern marketing strategies. However, the factors that enhance a brand’s competitive clout (BCC) are poorly understood. This study therefore suggests an integrated model of BCC and three factors that are proposed to play a role in its formation: (i) consumer price sensitivity; (ii) brand market share; and (iii) consumer brand preferences. These variables are examined both individually and simultaneously to demonstrate the direct effect of each on BCC and how their inter-relationships contribute to BCC. In doing so, a two-step empirical analysis is conducted. First, two multinomial logit models provide an own- and a cross-price response matrix for a chosen set of competitive brands. Secondly, BCC is regressed against the variables of market share, intrinsic preferences, and price sensitivity using an interaction effects regression model. The results of the analysis show that market share is not the only way to increase BCC; in particular, consumer preferences, and especially pricing decisions, are shown to play a key role in developing a strong brand.     

Price versus quantity in a duopoly of vertical differentiation with loss-averse consumers

In a model à la Mussa and Rosen (1978) in which consumers are loss-averse, I check the robustness of the result obtained by Tanaka (2001). As he did, I find that the quantity contract is a dominant strategy for both firms. Thus, Cournot is the outcome in equilibrium. Finally, I find that loss aversion in general intensifies competition.     

The Level of Sustainability Assurance: The Effects of Brand Reputation and Industry Specialisation of Assurance Providers

This research focuses on examining the relationship between some attributes of assurance providers and the level of sustainability assurance. By using the propensity to issue negative conclusions in the assurance statement as an indicator of the level of assurance, we examine whether the brand name and industry specialisation of the practitioners have an impact on the assurance opinion issued. Using an international sample of 1233 firm-year observations over the period 2007–2014, the findings document the impact of the brand reputation and industry specialisation of assurance providers on the level of assurance. The probability of detecting material errors and omissions in a sustainability report is higher if it is verified by a Big 4 auditing firm and by an industry expert as an assurance practitioner. The greater experience in providing audit services and the relevant skills and training provided by Big 4 firms, as well as the greater knowledge and experience of industry experts, increase the propensity to report more accurate opinions about a sustainability report. The findings are robust for alternative measures for the level of assurance and the industry specialisation.     

Cost-effectiveness of 3-month paliperidone treatment for chronic schizophrenia in Spain

Background: A 3-month long treatment of paliperidone palmitate (PP3M) has been introduced as an option for treating schizophrenia. Its cost-effectiveness in Spain has not been established.

Aims: To compare the costs and effects of PP3M compared with once-monthly paliperidone (PP1M) from the payer perspective in Spain.

Methods: This study used the recently published trial by Savitz et al. as a core model over 1 year. Additional data were derived from the literature. Costs in 2016 Euros were obtained from official lists and utilities from Osborne et al. The authors conducted both cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses. For the former, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was calculated. For the latter, the outcomes were relapses and hospitalizations avoided. To assure the robustness of the analyses, a series of 1-way and probability sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: The expected cost was lower with PP3M (4,780€) compared with PP1M (5,244€). PP3M had the fewest relapses (0.080 vs 0.161), hospitalizations (0.034 v.s 0.065), and emergency room visits (0.045 v.s 0.096) and the most QALYs (0.677 v.s 0.625). In both cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses, PP3M dominated PP1M. Sensitivity analyses confirmed base case findings. For the primary analysis (cost-utility), PP3M dominated PP1M in 46.9% of 10,000 simulations and was cost-effective at a threshold of 30,000€/QALY gained.

Conclusions: PP3M dominated PP1M in all analyses and was, therefore, cost-effective for treating chronic relapsing schizophrenia in Spain. For patients who require long-acting therapy, PP3M appears to be a good alternative anti-psychotic treatment.     

The effect of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements on benefactors’ exports

Over the last decades, developed countries have provided developing countries with preferential market access via trade policies in the form of nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements (NRPTAs). Despite the lack of reciprocity of this kind of agreements, certain criteria for designating eligible countries refer to the commercial interests of benefactor countries. This paper examines for the first time the effect of NRPTAs on benefactors’ exports to beneficiary countries. Using recent developments in the econometric analysis of the gravity equation, we find robust evidence that nonreciprocal agreements have had an economically significant effect on exports not only for beneficiary countries but also for benefactor countries.