The ‘laissez faire’ bias of managed floating

The government of a small open economy trying to manage its exchange rate faces a ‘time consistency’ problem. If markets expect implementation of the optimal linear intervention rule, the government will be tempted to ‘defect’: knowing this, markets will expect less activism; and, in the discretionary equilibrium, this is what they get. How far this credibility problem can shift discretionary policy towards a free float is shown in two popular models of floating rates. One way of offsetting the ‘laissez faire’ bias of discretionary policy is to appoint a relatively ‘conservative’ central banker: but, as the time period of policy action and precommitment shrinks towards zero, the required conservative bias is found to go towards infinity. Other institutional features — such as central bank reputation, contracts and intermediate targets — may be crucial for successful exchange rate management.     

Disease management primer: managing dollars by managing disease

The costliest participants to treat are those with chronic and serious, acute conditions that are often preventable. Developing programs aimed at patients with chronic conditions could be the key to getting control of health care costs. Disease management programs seek to alleviate some of this expense by better managing chronic illnesses and improving the overall health care of employees.     

IS NOISE TRADER RISK PRICED?

We examine the hypothesis that closed‐end fund shareholders garner greater returns than holders of the underlying assets as compensation for bearing “noise trader risk.” We demonstrate that the returns on fund shares are more volatile and exhibit greater mean reversion than the returns on the underlying assets, consistent with the hypothesis that noise traders play a more active role in closed‐end fund shares than do the underlying assets. Inconsistent with the De Long et al. (1990) noise trader model, however, we find that after accounting for fund expenses, fund shareholders do not earn returns greater than holders of the underlying assets. JEL classification: G12     

Fitting Company Strategy to Industry Structure: A Strategic Audit of The Rise of Benetton and Stefanel

Paradoxically, two of Europe's most successful companies have risen out of one of its least successful industrial sectors. This article will argue that the distinctive way in which Benetton and Stefanel organize the manufacture and sale of their products - their "architecture" - is central to achieving the quick responses essential for competitive success in the market for fashion clothing.     

The Yugoslav inflation: Some competing hypotheses

Various hypotheses about wage and price inflation in Yugoslavia are presented and tested empirically with quarterly data from the 1962–1972 period. Both theoretical literature and empirical evidence on the behavior of the self-managed firm are used to derive different models of wage determination. The wage-equation results indicate that labor-market conditions, inflationary expectations; and labor-productivity variables are significant determinants of the rate of growth of wages. The price equations, based on a modified cost-markup model consistent with the practices of Yugoslav firms, identify labor costs and aggregate demand as significant determinants of the rate of growth of prices. University of California, Berkeley.     

Consumer behavior in the Italian mobile telecommunication market

This paper investigates the characteristics of Italian cell phone users. A multidimensional segmentation approach was adopted, using concurrently three sets of variables: consumer/user lifestyles, use motivations and product/service attributes. Data on a national sample (1067 individuals) were collected and factor and cluster analysis were then performed on the database. The study led to the identification of three user segments, each with a diverse combination of the segmentation variables. Findings provide implications for the mobile telecommunication industry and could suggest strategic choices to mobile operators—especially cell phone producers—and constitute the basis for their strategic positioning.     

A Learning Design for Reducing Hypothetical Bias in the Contingent Valuation Method

Over the last few years a great deal of research has focussed on hypothetical bias in value estimates obtained with the contingent valuation (CV) method and on means for ameliorating if not eliminating such bias. To date, efforts to eliminate hypothetical bias have relied on calibration techniques or on word-smithing of one kind or another to induce subjects to provide responses to hypothetical questions that mimic responses made by subjects facing actual payments in the valuation experiment. This paper introduces a different approach for eliminating hypothetical bias. A design for a CV survey format is presented which provides subjects with the opportunity to learn how the CV institution works. Sequential referenda are conducted where respondents gain experience in CV settings by participating in both hypothetical and real referenda. The logic of this Learning Design is a straightforward application of the trials process used in experimental economics. We demonstrate that the Learning Design is effective in eliminating hypothetical bias in surveys concerning donations to two different public goods.     

Investment allocation: A comparison of the reform experiences of Hungary and Yugoslavia

Both Yugoslavia and Hungary, despite reform efforts, have continued to exhibit investment cycles. An analysis is presented of why the Yugoslav and Hungarian experiences have been so similar despite major institutional differences. An examination of three different capital allocation systems in Yugoslavia identifies both institutional and behavioral factors that undermine reform efforts and reproduce investment cycles not only in Yugoslavia, but also in Hungary and other socialist economies.     

Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?

We examine the effect of uncertainty concerning remaining supplies of conventional crude oil and its production path on: the date alternative fuels will be needed, the quantity of alternative fuels needed, and how this uncertainty affects firms' willingness to provide alternatives in a timely fashion. Despite large uncertainties about the quantity of oil that remains and its production path, the start date for replacements is likely to fall within a twenty-two year period that is narrower and earlier than previous estimates. The twenty-two year window represents considerable uncertainty about the date of the peak and this uncertainty creates an asymmetry in the strategy that maximizes the welfare of firms relative to total social welfare, which works against the market's ability to generate a smooth transition from oil to alternative fuels. The timeliness of this transition is critical—the production paths generated here suggest that 10 million barrels per day or more of alternative fuels will be needed within a decade of the peak in production of conventional crude oil.